Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 282326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
626 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

The latest 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion can be found below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

High pressure was over the region providing partly to mostly sunny
skies. An isolated shower has developed along the lake breeze in the
Arrowhead and they will remain possible for a few hours before loss
of heating.

Skies will be mostly clear tonight and patchy fog will once again be
possible. Expect lows tonight from 50 to 60, warmest west and
coolest from the Iron Range into the Arrowhead.

The high will continue to move southeast Saturday with a south to
southwest surface flow developing. Dry conditions will persist
through the day as the surface boundary will remain off to the north
and west through at least 00Z. Most areas should see mostly sunny
skies with highs in the upper seventies to mid eighties.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

A weak low level boundary and shortwave will be moving southeast
Saturday night in northwest flow aloft. The GFS remains strongest
with the shortwave and as a result generates the most QPF.
Precipitable water values will be on the increase Saturday night but
overall lift is not that strong. There will be a chance for showers
and thunderstorms Saturday night, mainly over the northwest half of
the Northland from Cass County northeast into the Arrowhead and
points north. A lack of stronger lift and significant shear will
keep the severe threat low. The chance for showers and storms will
drop a bit further south on Sunday but again overall lift is weak as
no significant shortwave is forecast and low level convergence is
lacking. We have low POPS Sunday over much of northeast Minnesota
and spotty low POPS Sunday night into Monday over parts of the
Northland but there will be a lack of organization. Shear remains
low as much of the guidance has 0-6KM bulk shear less than 25 knots
through Monday.

A better chance for showers and storms will occur Monday night into
Tuesday as a cold front drops south along with a shortwave. The GFS
remains stronger with the wave compared to the NAM, Canadian, and
ECMWF but they all have better low level convergence. The airmass
will be unstable enough for strong storms, especially on Tuesday.
There will continue to be a lack of deep layer shear through
Tuesday. A few strong storms will be possible, especially Tuesday,
but the overall severe threat will be limited by a lack of shear.

High temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be a few degrees above
normal for most areas but cool into the seventies Wednesday behind
the cold front. Highs near or a bit below normal are then expected
to continue Thursday and Friday as the upper flow is more northerly.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

High pressure over the region will provide clear and calm
conditions overnight. The threat of fog looks fairly low, not
impossible, but low. Kept it out of most forecasts for now, except
KDLH has a good enough chance to warrant some fog because a weak
wind from Lake Superior late tonight might provide extra moisture
from Lake Superior to help form the fog. Have a period of MVFR
conditions at KDLH, and may need to trend lower if confidence in
the fog increases. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions are forecast
through Saturday. Anticipate few/scattered cumulus clouds with
ceilings around 5 to 7 kft to develop by Saturday afternoon.


DLH  54  82  60  82 /  10   0  10  20
INL  55  85  61  84 /   0  10  40  20
BRD  60  82  61  82 /   0  10  10  20
HYR  55  83  57  81 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  52  84  60  84 /  10   0   0  10




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