Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 212013
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
313 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

The initial concern in the short term is lake effect snow showers
along the snow belt region in northwest Wisconsin. Winds will
remain favorable through this evening with lake surface to 850 hPa
temperature differences around 15 to 20 degrees Celsius. However,
snow chances will diminish by early this evening as a surface
high builds into the region from southern Manitoba and western
Ontario. This will bring clear skies to much of the region
tonight. Expect temperatures to drop due to strong radiational
cooling, so brought down temperatures a few degrees from the
previous forecast. Lows range from the single digits below zero in
far northeast Minnesota, to the single digits above zero
elsewhere.

Wednesday morning and afternoon will remain dry as the surface
high builds into the Central Great Lakes. Cloud cover will
increase from west to east as the day progresses and as warmer
air advects into the region on the western side of the 850 hPa
ridge. In addition, gusty winds will develop from the Brainerd
Lakes Region to the International Falls area as the pressure
gradient tightens. Expect the next round of precipitation to
arrive across the Brainerd Lakes Region to the International Falls
area after 00Z Thursday.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Main focus for long term is the precip event Thursday through
Friday afternoon. This could bring a variety of precip types to
the area.

A weak shortwave will move through northern MN Wednesday night.
This will bring a possibility of light snow/flurries to most of
the region. There is not much moisture associated with the
shortwave, so accumulations will light. There will be a break
through Thursday afternoon before the main precip event moves in
Thursday evening.

A warm front will develop across central MN Thursday afternoon and
evening. This will spread precipitation south to north into the
forecast area. The models are converging on the solution, with
the majority of the precipitation mainly south of Highway 2 in NE
MN and all of NW WI. There will be some temps at or below
freezing Thursday night through Friday morning just after sunrise.
This will caused a mixture of rain/snow/freezing rain/sleet in NW
WI and some portions of NE MN south of Highway 2 (but less likely
in NE MN). This mixture will change over to all rain by mid-
morning Friday.

The system pulls out late Friday ending the bulk of the
precipitation. As indicated by the previous shift, the models do
show a more active pattern over the weekend with shortwaves moving
through the region bringing a chance for rain and/or snow. But
confidence remains low at this time as models have not converged on
a solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

VFR conditions at most sites this afternoon except for MVFR cigs
at HYR due to clouds streaming off Lake Superior. Tonight and
Wednesday will continue to have VFR conditions at all sites.
Winds will be gusty this afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   8  34  23  40 /   0   0  30  50
INL   0  35  23  45 /   0  10  30  20
BRD   9  37  28  42 /   0  10  20  50
HYR   5  37  24  40 /   0   0  20  40
ASX   8  37  21  43 /  10   0  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WL
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...Stewart



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