Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 180536 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1236 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED FROM SOUTHERN AITKIN
TO NORTHERN PINE COUNTY. HAVE ADDED BACK IN A MENTION OF THUNDER
BECAUSE OF THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS RAINFALL CHANCES/AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BRD TO DLH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER 1.5 INCHES AT BRD AND PINE RIVER.
RADAR ESTIMATES AN 30 MILE WIDE AREA OF OVER AN INCH RAINFALL FROM
BREEZY POINT EAST TO NEAR BROOKSTON.

THE PRECIPITATION IS CAUSED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREAD NE MN BY
EARLY MORNING AND NW WI BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME OF THE
AREAS RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES TODAY AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

 PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES WILL
AMPLIFY AND PUSH SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE U.P. OF
MICH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS SUPPORT THAT A MID LVL LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE REGION TUES MORNING. THE SFC PATTERN THAT
RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MON
NIGHT ...WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS POSSIBLE... UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
SFC LOW SHOULD CONCENTRATE NEAR NE WISCONSIN. WITH A DEEPLY
CYCLONIC MOIST CIRCULATION OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...WE MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS.
MDLS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON WHERE THE MOST LIKELY HIGH QPF OCCURS BUT
IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH TOTALS. THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE GREATER FORCING THAT
COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. INITIAL GUESSTIMATES SUGGEST FROM THE
ST CROIX VALLEY INTO NWRN WISC MAY SEE HIGHEST TOTALS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH GIVEN CONFLICTING MDL SIGNALS AT THIS TIME. A DRY
INTERLUDE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE MID LVL
FLOW CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROF OVER
PACNW/NRN ROCKIES BY END OF WEEK. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO REGION BY THURSDAY HOWEVER MDLS MAY BE TOO FAST WITH ITS
ARRIVAL CONSIDERING SFC HIGH POISED EAST OF REGION AND RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LAYERS. MUCH VACILLATION IN RECENT MDL GUIDANCE OVER HOW THE
PATTERN DEVELOP LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A FRONTAL
BDRY WILL PUSH INTO HE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING
MUCH HIGHER POPS EVENTUALLY. HOWEVER...THE POSITIONING OF THE ACTUAL
SFC BDRY/WAVE WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM  CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MVFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -DZ/BR AND SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT DLH/HYR OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF -DZ/BR WITH THOSE SAME
LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES CLOSER AND SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP AROUND 15Z TO 18Z.
TIMING AT THIS POINT IS DIFFICULT AND HAVE VCTS MENTIONED.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  70  56  72 /  60  40  10  10
INL  58  75  56  78 /  60  10  10  10
BRD  61  76  58  79 /  50  20  10  10
HYR  60  71  57  75 /  70  50  10  10
ASX  58  69  57  72 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CLC





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