Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 302338
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
638 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

A strong, large surface ridge is now building into the region.  It
is currently centered over northern Saskatchewan, and is going to
build down into the forecast area over the next few days.  For now
we will be under a ridge axis over the next 24 hours.  This is going
to bring a cooler and drier airmass into the area, with afternoon
dewpoints in the 50s and highs in the 70s. Wednesday afternoon there
should be a decent cumulus field over the Arrowhead and northwest
Wisconsin, but do not currently expect any showers and cloud bases
should be fairly high with our dry low levels.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

The overall weather pattern for the remainder of this week continues
to look very tranquil for the Northland.  The eastern Canada upper
trof will only slowly de-amplify and move off to the east, and thus,
the associated large area of surface high pressure centered over
Ontario will only slowly move east Wed night through Friday.  While
there will be a couple of weak mid/upper level ripples embedded
within northwest flow aloft that may produce a few clouds, general
synoptic scale subsidence should prevail with clear to partly cloudy
skies, with daytime highs in the 70s to near 80, and overnight lows
in the 40s and 50s, with the coolest overnight lows in the favored
areas of the interior MN Arrowhead region and northwest Wisconsin.

A slow transition to a warmer and increasingly more humid airmass
should begin on Friday as low level flow becomes more south-
southwest.  It is not entirely out of the question that small
chances for showers/TStorms could begin as early as Friday night
across the west in closer proximity to the strengthening low level
moisture plume and low level jet, but the better chances for
convection area-wide should commence beginning later Saturday and
last through the remainder of the Labor Day Holiday weekend.  It`s a
bit too early to determine many details with much confidence, but
given long, sustained low level southerly trajectories from the Gulf
of Mexico, and the presence of persistent forcing for ascent and a
slow moving front in the vicinity, it would seem that there may be
some potential for heavy rainfall and possibly a few strong or
severe storms during this period given currently available mid range
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

High pressure will continue nudging its way into the region from
Manitoba. This will keep skies clear with light northerly winds.
Expect radiation fog to develop late tonight and reduce
visibilities to the MVFR range at all terminals except KDLH
between 08Z-12Z. May need to be a bit more aggressive with
visibility reduction in later updates as think that IFR or lower
visibility cannot be ruled out. Fog will lift around 12Z, and after
this point VFR conditions will prevail with winds less than 10
kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  73  51  70 /   0   0   0   0
INL  49  73  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  53  75  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  73  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  53  74  51  70 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DJM
AVIATION...WL


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