Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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111
FXUS63 KDLH 250236
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
936 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Embedded pieces of energy are rotating through the forecast area
and will do so through the night. Periodic showers are expected
through the night and have adjusted pops to reflect trends from
latest radar, as well as short term hires models. Rest of the
forecast in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

The Northland will remain under the influence of an upper-level
trough tonight and through the day Sunday. A mid-level trough with a
concentrated positive vorticity maxima will translate to the east-
southeast this evening away from the region, and the low-level band
of frontogenesis will also begin to pivot to the west. By Sunday
morning, a band of channeled vorticity associated with a secondary
shortwave trough will enter the Northland. This will once again
bring more chances of showers and possibly a thunderstorm for
Sunday. Lift will be enhanced as a corridor of low-level
frontogenesis will once again be present due to a baroclinic zone
developing ahead of a push of cold air advection. More chances of
thunderstorms will be possible as low-level lapse rates steepen
during the late morning and afternoon hours. However, just like
today, instability looks to be pretty meager, with values of MUCAPE
between a few hundred up to 1000 J/kg, depending on the model. Model
soundings show some shallow and thin CAPE profiles, so again a
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but not expecting anything severe.
However, there could be some occasional lightning and small hail
possible for Sunday, given the low freezing level. This wave will
eventually move off to the east by the evening and overnight hours
Sunday.

With the cold air advection and abundant cloud cover, temperatures
will once again be well below seasonal average for Sunday, with high
temperatures ranging from the upper 50s over the BWCA and Minnesota
Arrowhead regions, to the lower to mid 60s over north-central
Minnesota and across our southern areas, including northwest
Wisconsin. This is about 10 to 15 degrees below average, so
temperatures will once again be close to record low highs Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

The pattern will shift from northerly flow aloft over the region to
quasi-zonal by mid-week as several shortwaves move through in the
northern stream. Upper troughing is forecast to move into the
central CONUS late in the week into Saturday.

The models are in better agreement in general but do show
significant timing and track differences with the various shortwaves
which will have an impact on the Northland`s weather. The best
agreement comes early, Sunday night into Wednesday. A shortwave will
continue to move through the Northland with showers and a few
thunderstorms continuing Sunday night with chances highest over far
eastern areas. High pressure over the Northern Plains Sunday night
will slowly move east toward western Minnesota on Monday. A weak
shortwave/trough may still cause some showers on Monday, mainly over
the Arrowhead and parts of northern Wisconsin. It`s possible we may
have to spread some low POPs further west but will hold off on that
for now. Highs Monday will be in the sixties to around seventy.

The high will pass east of the Northland Monday night into Tuesday
morning allowing the low level flow to become southerly. This will
bring in warmer air and should also result in more sunshine. We
expect highs in the seventies.

A stronger shortwave and low pressure system will move through the
Northern Plains Tuesday night into Minnesota on Wednesday then
continue east Wednesday night. We ramp up POPs from west to east
Tuesday night into Wednesday. There remains a chance for some strong
storms Tuesday night with strong/severe storms possible Wednesday
into Wednesday evening.

There will be periodic chances for showers/storms Thursday through
next weekend as several more shortwaves are forecast to affect the
region. There will likely be some dry periods but with all the model
uncertainty, it`s too difficult to determine when at this time.
Temperatures will be near or below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

A center of low pressure was situated over northern Lake Superior
in Ontario with a frontal boundary that has since moved past the
TAF areas. A few lingering showers are present across the region
with the exception of KBRD having vicinity showers present during
the first hours of this TAF period. Focus shifts to the overnight
and early morning period with another shortwave feature impacting
through portions of the Sunday period. Showers should increase
from the north to the south. Looking at mainly VFR conditions
before the onset of the Sunday precipitation and reducing down to
MVFR or IFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  60  46  68 /  40  70  50  10
INL  49  60  43  69 /  80  70  20  10
BRD  49  64  45  70 /  30  20  10   0
HYR  48  63  45  68 /  40  70  40  20
ASX  49  63  46  69 /  60  70  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...WM



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