Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 121727
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

UPDATE TO MOVE UP POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PINE AND BURNETT COUNTY
SINCE LIGHT RAIN IS JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. ALSO...SOME TSTMS
HAVE FORMED IN BARRON COUNTY JSUT SOUTH OF WASHBURN COUNTY. SPS
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT AREA HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

EARLIER UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE FOG IN NW WI. THIS UPDATE WAS TO
UPDATE CLOUD COVER...ADD POPS TO NW MN IN LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD O
FNEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM CANADA. THE DISTURBANCE WILL
DESTABLIZE THE AREA AS APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS COOLER AIR ALOFT FLOWS INTO THE REGION.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

ON THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS ANCHORED
OVER CENTRAL OT. A S/WV ROTATING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
AID IN SOME CONVECTION LATER TODAY IN NWRN WI.

TODAY WILL BE A DAY OF CHANGE FOR THE NORTHLAND. THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED ACROSS NERN MN LAST EVENING HAD SLOWED DOWN ITS EWRD
MOVEMENT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WAS ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS TO
HINCKLY...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS NRN WI. WITH
SOME DAYTIME HEATING...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG OVER SRN ASHLAND/IRON
AND THE SRN TIER COUNTIES OF BURNETT...SAWYER...WASHBURN AND PRICE.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER STRONG S/WV ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW. THESE COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS/ PUT SOME T IN FOR
THE EARLY EVENING WHEN THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY OF ABOUT
1000 CAPE AND LIS OF -3. BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
NORTHERN MN WHEN THE FRONT GOES THROUGH JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY AFTER
PEAK HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM  CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

MAJOR THEME THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LVL TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ANOMALOUS TROF WILL THEN PROGRESS
SLOWLY EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING MODIFICATION OF
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES OCCUR SUNDAY ACROSS THE NRN TIER
OF MN AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE WITH STEEPENING AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. THE PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN INCURSION TIME
FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS BROUGHT ABOUT BY
THE PROGRESSION OF AN INTENSE MID LVL LOW ACROSS THE CWA. FCST 85H
TEMPS WITHIN GFS/EC/GEM ALL SUPPORT VALUES LOWERING TO ABOUT 2C TO
4C MONDAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS MONDAY ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON
EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY...PRECIP AND DEEP LAYERED COLD ADVECTION. IF
PRECIP IS FALLING MOST OF THE DAY...ACTUAL MAX TEMPS MAY APPROXIMATE
THE 925 VALUES...CLOSER TO LOW/MID 50S...IN MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA... BUT WILL NOT STOOP QUITE THAT LOW AT THIS TIME. THE
RECORD LOW MAX FOR KDLH MONDAY IS 54 AND KINL 61. THE OVERALL FCST
WILL TREND TOWARDS DRYING TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS MID LVL
CENTER SHIFTS INTO ERN WISC. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
UPPER TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE REGION WE MAY BE
TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FCST. THE UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THE MID LVL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
FAIRLY LARGE SFC HIGH COVERS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A POTENTIAL FRONTAL
SYSTEM WE WILL KEEP IT DRY UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY OCCURS REGARDING THE
FRONTAL BDRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

TWO MAIN FEATURES THIS PERIOD ARE THE OLD FRONTAL BDRY TO THE
SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LINE OF BKN CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH EVE FRONT SO USED AT
KINL/KHIB/KBRD TERMINALS AND VCSH AT KDLH WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY BY FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP NEAR
KHYR BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DESPITE INITIATION TIME STARTING AROUND
18Z SO USED VCTS WORDING FOR NOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  57  67  50 /  10  20  10  40
INL  77  51  65  46 /  20  40  30  50
BRD  79  59  71  50 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  79  58  71  51 /  20  10  10  30
ASX  77  57  68  50 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON






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