Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 200855
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
355 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AT 345 AM...THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD MOVED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION HAD LARGELY DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED
INTO MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS CONTINUED TO PERCOLATE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND JUST EAST OF
KINL. AREAS OF FOG CONTINUED TO PLAGUE THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THERE WAS SOME LOCAL
DENSE FOG AT KDLH. TEMPERATURES WERE LARGELY IN THE 60S.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE RESOLVING VARIOUS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. FOR THIS MORNING...HAVE
GENERALLY CONFINED ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD PERSIST FOR A TIME THIS MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AND BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA. HAVE TRIED TO DEFINE THE GREATEST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION IN HOURLY POPS/WX. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY
DECENT DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND MUCH OF THE TIME WITH FAIRLY
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

WHILE MUCH OF TODAY WILL LIKELY TURN OUT TO BE PRETTY DECENT...IT
IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A LINEAR MCS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN
CWA LATER IN THE DAY AND TO THE TWIN PORTS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/ECMWF AND
GFS ALL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE. A H5 WIND MAX OF 80 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SW MN...WITH H3 WINDS OF 130+ KNOTS. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH DEPICT INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE SPC HAS OUR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THINK
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS...NAMELY DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL FOR A TIME LATER TODAY. WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
BE A BIT LACKING...STRONG DYNAMICS AND INTENSE SHEAR COULD MAKE UP
FOR ANY DEFICIENCY IN MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...WILL HIT POPS HARD
AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA...AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD OVERALL
BE AN IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY WEARS ON WITH SOME SUNSHINE MOST
AREAS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH
A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE NORTHLAND CAN ANTICIPATE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS WEEK WHICH WILL
PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE...AND THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
THIS LOW COULD HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE PLAINS AND
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM ARE
INDICATING THIS UPPER LEVEL WILL GET CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY MIGHT BE FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT LIFR/IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE. THE CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER LATER THIS
MORNING. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS
ARE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

SOME AREAS COULD SEE A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  50  66  46 /  60  70  20   0
INL  64  47  65  42 /  60  70  10   0
BRD  71  49  67  44 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  71  50  65  42 /  50  70  30   0
ASX  70  48  62  44 /  30  70  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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