Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 231154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
654 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

An area of low pressure along the North Dakota and Minnesota border
will move quickly into southern Wisconsin this afternoon and into
southeast lower Michigan by early evening. A shortwave was moving
through northern North Dakota and will continue quickly southeast
into northern Wisconsin by early afternoon before exiting the region
this evening. The shortwave and strong FGEN forcing has led to light
rain over northwest Minnesota, southern Manitoba, and northwest
Ontario as of 08Z. The strongest forcing will occur early this
morning but much of the guidance continues to show rain moving
east/southeast through the day. We continue to have the highest POPs
over far northern Minnesota this morning shifting them into
far northern Wisconsin this afternoon. Most of the rain will be done
over northeast Minnesota by 18Z and over northern Wisconsin by late
afternoon. Expect highs from the upper forties along the
International Border to the lower to middle fifties south.

High pressure will build in tonight with the region remaining dry.
There is a question on how widespread clouds will be and that will
have a big impact on temperatures. We did lower temperatures a few
degrees to 30 to 35 over most of the Northland but if it`s clear
they will have to be lowered.

High pressure will keep the area dry through Monday with highs from
the lower to middle forties north to lower fifties south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Monday night finds upper level and surface ridging covering the
area. The ridging is hanging tough on Tuesday. However, models are
trending farther north with an area of vorticity drifting through
central and southern Minnesota. The GFS/ECMWF/NAM point towards some
QPF touching the southern edge of the forecast area by afternoon.
Have lowered pops from previous forecast to better indicate this
trend. The NAM maintains the bulk of the QPF south of the region
Tuesday night with surface ridging from Lake Superior westward. The
GFS is hinting at this as well, but brings some QPF to the southwest
corner. The ECMWF is more robust and has a lot more vorticity
advecting into the area late Tuesday night. Used a blend with more
of an emphasis on the drier forecast in the evening, trending toward
the wetter ECMWF overnight. With a bit cooler temp profile over the
Arrowhead, there may be a mix of rain and snow. On Wednesday, the
models differ a bit in their mass fields, but are coming together on
their QPF. The ECMWF is the colder model on Wednesday. Accounted for
this by keeping the rain/snow mix over the Arrowhead in the morning,
and again let in the afternoon with the loss of diurnal heating.
Wednesday night the ECMWF closes off an upper low over the western
Great Lakes, the GFS keeps an open wave. A blend favors the GFS a
bit and have a rain/snow mix mention. The GFS moves this system
eastward quicker than the ECMWF. The ECMWF has colder air covering
the entire region, while the GFS has colder air over the Arrowhead,
to -4C, while +4C over the southern zones. Northwest flow aloft sets
up over the region Thursday and Thursday night. The ECMWF is much
colder than the GFS and has more QPF. A blend gives a bit warmer
temps at 850mb and some light QPF in a few spots. Friday and
Saturday finds very large differences in solutions and their affect
on the forecast area. Used a blended approach to resolve some


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Low pressure will cross over the terminals by afternoon. VFR
ceilings are found ahead of the low. Some showers were occurring
in the vicinity of HIB/INL at the outset. Ceilings will lower
briefly into the MVFR range with the passing of the low and the
associated trof/cold front that follows behind. Ceilings will
improve to VFR by evening as the aforementioned departs.


DLH  51  33  49  34 /  50   0   0   0
INL  47  33  45  31 /  80   0   0   0
BRD  53  33  51  37 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  54  33  52  32 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  51  36  50  34 /  60  10   0   0




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