Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 041058
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
458 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 458 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Light snow has developed over much of northern Minnesota and far
northwest Wisconsin and it will continue to spread east and north
into the rest of northern Wisconsin into the Arrowhead this
morning. The visibility has generally been from 1 to 3 miles. We
have received six tenths of an inch of snow as of 445 am. A
trough of low pressure was still back in the Dakotas and this
initial area of snow was due to a shortwave ahead of the main
trough and in an area of isentropic lift. The models are in pretty
good agreement moving the trough through the region today into
this evening. There will likely be some freezing drizzle or
drizzle that occurs over portions of northern Minnesota this
morning, roughly from west of a line from Pine City to
International Falls as the main area of snow shifts east and
before deeper moisture arrives with the main upper wave. Several
observations have suggested a mix just west of the Brainerd Lakes
region. Snowfall is expected to be from 1 to 3 inches for most
areas. Some locally higher amounts are expected along the North
Shore, mainly between Tofte and Grand Portage due to both lake and
terrain enhancement. We have a Winter Weather Advisory for that
area from 9 am to 9 pm. The precipitation will wind down over
western areas later this afternoon and over the rest of the
Northland late this afternoon into this evening.

A quick moving ridge will pass through the Northland tonight
bringing mainly dry conditions overnight into Monday morning.
However, warm air advection and another shortwave will bring a
chance for light snow or a mix of rain and snow Monday afternoon.
Chances for precipitation will be highest along and north of
Highway 2.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 458 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Not many changes to sensible weather details in the long term this
morning. Forecast of a slow-moving cutoff low loitering in the area
through late week is still on track.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance in relatively good agreement
regarding arrival and placement of stacked low pressure over
northwest Minnesota Monday evening. Precipitation placement and
amounts are more diverse. The GFS and ECMWF are similar while the
NAM is farther north and west and the Canadian to the south. In any
case, the first round of precipitation should bring another few
inches of snow to my northwestern zones Monday night. Higher
elevation areas along the North Shore should pick up another inch or
two of accumulation.

Model differences become more pronounced beginning Tuesday with the
GFS and GEM keeping precipitation over northern Minnesota through
the end of the week. The NAM takes the bulk of the precipitation
into Ontario and the southern Canadian Prairies. ECMWF straddles the
NAM and GFS solutions. Think the GEM is far to aggressive producing
another six-tenths of QPF over my northwest zones Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday morning. Leaned more heavily on the consensus
approach and nudged toward the GFS. This yields another 1 to 3
inches of accumulation in my northwest Tuesday through early
Wednesday morning, with lower totals elsewhere.

With abundant low- and mid-level moisture lingering over the region
Wednesday through Friday, expect periodic light snow showers for
much of the Northland and cooling temperatures. Several additional
inches of snow are possible during that time for most locales. The
northwest flow over western Lake Superior, antecedent cloud cover,
and very warm lake surface temperatures should yield a prolonged
period of lake enhanced snowfall over the northwest Wisconsin
snowbelt areas. There may be periods of heavy snow during the second
half of the week for those areas. Total accumulation of more than 6
inches seems likely for portions of Iron, Ashland, and Bayfield
Counties from Wednesday night through Saturday morning.

The cutoff low will eventually move out of the region Friday night
and Saturday and a return to a faster quasi-zonal/northwesterly flow
regime is possible during the weekend and into next week.

North to northwesterly flow associated with the persistent storm
system this week will bring much colder temperatures into the
Northland. Look for readings by Wednesday much below normal with
highs in the low to upper teens and lows in the upper single digits
to middle teens. The near to much below normal temperature trend
will continue through the remainder of the long term and into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Snow will overspread the terminals from southwest to northeast,
and has already begun at KBRD. The snow will drop conditions to
IFR, with even LIFR at a few locations for several hours as the
band of snow moves across the area. The worst conditions,
generally LIFR ceilings and visibilities in -sn, will be found
generally in the 12z-21z time range. Gradual improvement is
expected after that, though most terminals will still have IFR to
MVFR ceilings by the end of the TAF period as snow ends and
visibilities improve to VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  27  35  25 / 100  30  30  30
INL  34  25  34  22 /  70  40  50  60
BRD  34  25  35  23 /  70  10  30  30
HYR  34  27  37  27 /  90  40  20  30
ASX  35  28  39  29 /  70  40  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this
     evening for MNZ021.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...LE


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