Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 282200
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
400 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 350 PM...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
A CHECK ACROSS THE CWA INDICATES ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS QUITE
LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ONLY REPORT BEING IN THE
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NW WI...NAMELY...WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES.
DEFINITELY THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO NEED AN ADVISORY FOR
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA IF THE EXPECTED FZDZ BECOMES EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. WILL START WITH THIS AREA AS IT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST
LIFT AND HAS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDING PROFILES...BUT KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON IT OVERNIGHT. ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY...AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES DEVELOP IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME. COULD SEE SOME
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED
AREAS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH APPROACHING
S/W TROF BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEAGER MOISTURE
WITH WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD A BROAD SWATH OF A DUSTING
UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BEYOND SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW...WITH THE GREATER
THREAT OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO TO MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALL TERMINALS. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO...AND EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO INL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LOW...BUT
IT SEEMS FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG ARE MORE LIKELY THAN LIGHT
SNOW WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS DEEPER SATURATION EXPANDS ACROSS
REMAINING MN AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...INTRODUCED A MIX OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW BEFORE 29.00Z. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE AT HAYWARD...WHERE ONSET SHOULD BE DELAYED
UNTIL THIS EVENING.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER OVERNIGHT AND
COLD AIR POURING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...BUT THE INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SWITCH PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW AND THE
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  24  -3  16 /  40  10   0  10
INL  16  16 -11  15 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  22  22   4  22 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  27  28  -3  18 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  27  29   2  17 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ007>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK






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