Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 292138
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
338 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The forecast area was socked in with clouds as the occluded
upper/surface low was over Minnesota this afternoon. An occluded
frontal boundary was draped over northern Minnesota at 20Z/2pm,
extending back into the surface low in southwest Minnesota. With
much of the area expected to remain in the warm sector, will
continue to keep temps in the middle to upper 30s into the early
evening. This will keep the primary precipitation type liquid.

As the night progresses, there will be some cooling from the loss of
diurnal heating. Look for the rain to mix with snow initially until
near midnight before becoming all snow overnight. However, there
will be less moisture to work with and the best forcing will be over
northwest Minnesota. Pops will be lower for a bit before ramping
them back up late as the closed upper low approaches northwest
Wisconsin. Snow amounts will be light as the atmosphere remains
warm. Light winds are anticipated tonight and have expanded the fog
mention through Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, the occluded system moves into eastern Wisconsin by
afternoon. The forecast area will eventually be on the back side of
this system, which means colder air will begin to be pulled into the
region. However, it will not be until afternoon as cold air
advection holds off until after 21Z/3pm Wednesday. Max temps will
still be above normal with middle to upper 30s forecast. The
precipitation type will change during the early morning from snow,
to a rain/snow mix, to all rain over much of the area. A rain/snow
mix is expected from Leader, Minnesota, north to INL and east to the
Isabella, Minnesota area in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

No significant changes to the long range forecast this afternoon.
Persistent cutoff low pressure will continue to fill and wobble
generally eastward Wednesday night through Saturday. A wintry mix
of rain and snow showers, with a small risk of freezing drizzle,
will continue Wednesday night through Thursday. Thursday afternoon
through Saturday morning temperatures should be cold enough to
support snow showers instead of a mix. Relatively warm inland lakes
over northern Minnesota, northwest Ontario, and Manitoba will
contribute some moisture and heat to the airmass on northerly winds.
Cyclonic flow aloft and several periods of DCVA are expected, as
well. All these factors should contribute to a prolonged period of
light snow showers and flurries through Saturday morning. Raised
POPs above the consensus blends Thursday through Saturday. Think low
chance POPs is the right answer given how slowly the system will
depart along with moisture availability and periodic weak ascent.

Weak high pressure will build into the region behind the departing
storm late Friday night and Saturday. Not convinced skies will clear
with abundant low-level moisture and potential for the thermal
inversion lingering through Saturday night. A fast-moving clipper
will cruise through the area late Saturday night and Sunday which
could bring a few inches of snow or a rain/snow mix. There are
preliminary indications another storm system may move into the Upper
Midwest in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Not terribly excited about
that system as of today, but will certainly bear watching.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A broad area of low pressure remained centered over northern
Minnesota early this afternoon. Low stratus, varying between IFR
and lower-half MVFR, is expected to linger through this forecast
period. Light rain and snow showers, with pockets of drizzle, will
continue as well. An occluded front stretched from near CKC to
north of XVG and was the focus for the most persistent area of
precipitation. Expect this band to loiter between HIB and INL
before pivoting southeastward tonight. Think there is a better
chance of a light rain/snow mix late this afternoon through this
evening at most sites. Should change to all snow overnight.
Trended visibility and ceilings lower with precipitation tonight,
but still higher than model guidance would suggest. Do think
visibility will drop to less than 1/2 mile tonight and Wednesday
morning, just not sure exactly when and where. Do have higher
confidence in persistent lower visibility at BRD on Wednesday.
Overall confidence in this forecast is average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  37  29  32 /  30  50  50  30
INL  31  36  27  30 /  60  50  40  30
BRD  32  37  30  33 /  40  40  40  10
HYR  31  38  31  35 /  20  50  60  30
ASX  33  40  31  35 /  20  50  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck



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