Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDLH 260827
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN PRECIP
CHANCES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ARROWHEAD MOVING EAST. THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THE AREA. THERE IS INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
WITH MU CAPES 500-1000 AND SOME SHEAR. THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF MN BY 12Z AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. AN AREA OF WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST REGION TODAY GIVING THE
AREA PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WILL PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA TODAY AND WILL BE NEAR THE ND/NW MN BORDER BY TONIGHT. IT
WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHERN WI BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE AREAS THAT MAY
RECEIVE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO END WEST TO EAST ACROSS MN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND NORTHERLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME.
THERE COULD BE MINOR SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NE TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT A LARGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND LINGER OVER THE EASTERN US
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND
DURING THIS TIME WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY...BUT THERE WILL LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL...NEAR
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR A DECREASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. THE MAIN CHANCE WOULD BE AREAS AROUND KINL...BUT MAINLY AREAS
JUST EAST OF KINL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
PICTURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  83  60  68  53 /  30  60  70  10
INL  82  54  72  50 /  60  50  50   0
BRD  85  60  74  55 /  20  50  50  10
HYR  83  59  70  50 /  10  60  70  10
ASX  83  57  66  50 /  20  60  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.