Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 210543 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1243 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Please see the new 06Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

A cold front stretching from extreme northern Ontario through
western Lake Superior and into northern Wisconsin, as of the
middle of this afternoon, will continue shifting east through this
evening. A trailing shortwave trough across the southern forecast
area may produce just enough forcing to trigger some showers and
storms across the southeast corner of the forecast area late this
afternoon or this evening. Many of the models have backed off on
this potential, but cannot rule it out. If any storms develop, not
expecting those storms to be strong.

High pressure will build into the Northland tonight, leading to
mostly clear skies and very light wind flow. Models suggest it
could be humid enough to produce some patchy fog late tonight.
Lows will range from the upper 40s to middle 50s, with the coolest
conditions across north-central Minnesota.

A broad/subtle upper-level trough will approach and then move into
the Northland Tuesday. It will bring weak/moderate large-scale
forcing for ascent. It will first spread in high clouds that may
end up obscuring the view of the early afternoon partial solar
eclipse, which will peak around 1 pm. There may be less high
clouds cover northwest Wisconsin than northeast Minnesota. The
forcing will likely produce scattered/broken cumulus across much
of the Northland during the middle and late afternoon. There will
be low chances of showers and storms. The greatest chances of rain
will be over the southeastern forecast area. Highs will be in the
middle to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Becoming sunny and seasonable Wednesday and Thursday with
increasing clouds on Friday. A cold front and the next chance for
widespread rain arrives Saturday.

On the synoptic scale a broad mid-level longwave trough will move
from southern Canada across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great
Lakes Monday night into early Tuesday. A cold front will be draped
across southern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with rain
showers along and ahead of the front. The front will exit Tuesday
night, with a round of wrap-around showers possible in far
northeast Minnesota and the MN Arrowhead Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Cooler air moves in from the north as high
pressure builds over the region Wednesday into Thursday. By late
Thursday the high pressure shifts east to be over the Great Lakes
region, with southerly flow developing at low levels across the
Upper Midwest. A warm front lifts into the region Friday causing
increasing clouds and a low chance for light precipitation, mainly
limited to northwest Wisconsin. On Saturday a cold front tracks
from west to east across the region leading to widespread rain
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.

Cooler temperatures mid to late week with highs in the 60s to
near 70 Tuesday and Wednesday, then closer to the low 70s Friday
through the weekend. Lows in the 40s Tues/Wed/Thurs under clear
skies, then in the 50s through the weekend. A few spots along and
north of the Iron Range could even reach the upper 30s Wednesday
night! (This would be hardly unusual for late August - record lows
are as chilly as the 20s for some cooperative observing stations
in northern Minnesota on Thursday.)


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF period at all
sites. Some MVFR fog is developing at KBRD and KHYR and MVFR/IFR
at KHIB and should affect those locations through 13Z time range.
Convection is expected to form over western WI/eastern MN after
15Z which may bring showers and thunderstorms to KHYR and possibly
also KDLH after 20Z. Have included a VCTS group for now. Winds to
remain less than 10 kts through most of the TAF period.


DLH  55  75  54  71 /   0  10  20  10
INL  48  76  49  69 /   0  20  20  20
BRD  53  76  53  72 /  10  10  20   0
HYR  55  79  54  71 /   0  10  40  10
ASX  56  78  56  72 /   0  10  30  10




SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
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