Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 241950
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
250 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

The Northland will remain under the influence of an upper-level
trough tonight and through the day Sunday. A mid-level trough with a
concentrated positive vorticity maxima will translate to the east-
southeast this evening away from the region, and the low-level band
of frontogenesis will also begin to pivot to the west. By Sunday
morning, a band of channeled vorticity associated with a secondary
shortwave trough will enter the Northland. This will once again
bring more chances of showers and possibly a thunderstorm for
Sunday. Lift will be enhanced as a corridor of low-level
frontogenesis will once again be present due to a baroclinic zone
developing ahead of a push of cold air advection. More chances of
thunderstorms will be possible as low-level lapse rates steepen
during the late morning and afternoon hours. However, just like
today, instability looks to be pretty meager, with values of MUCAPE
between a few hundred up to 1000 J/kg, depending on the model. Model
soundings show some shallow and thin CAPE profiles, so again a
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but not expecting anything severe.
However, there could be some occasional lightning and small hail
possible for Sunday, given the low freezing level. This wave will
eventually move off to the east by the evening and overnight hours
Sunday.

With the cold air advection and abundant cloud cover, temperatures
will once again be well below seasonal average for Sunday, with high
temperatures ranging from the upper 50s over the BWCA and Minnesota
Arrowhead regions, to the lower to mid 60s over north-central
Minnesota and across our southern areas, including northwest
Wisconsin. This is about 10 to 15 degrees below average, so
temperatures will once again be close to record low highs Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

The pattern will shift from northerly flow aloft over the region to
quasi-zonal by mid-week as several shortwaves move through in the
northern stream. Upper troughing is forecast to move into the
central CONUS late in the week into Saturday.

The models are in better agreement in general but do show
significant timing and track differences with the various shortwaves
which will have an impact on the Northland`s weather. The best
agreement comes early, Sunday night into Wednesday. A shortwave will
continue to move through the Northland with showers and a few
thunderstorms continuing Sunday night with chances highest over far
eastern areas. High pressure over the Northern Plains Sunday night
will slowly move east toward western Minnesota on Monday. A weak
shortwave/trough may still cause some showers on Monday, mainly over
the Arrowhead and parts of northern Wisconsin. It`s possible we may
have to spread some low POPs further west but will hold off on that
for now. Highs Monday will be in the sixties to around seventy.

The high will pass east of the Northland Monday night into Tuesday
morning allowing the low level flow to become southerly. This will
bring in warmer air and should also result in more sunshine. We
expect highs in the seventies.

A stronger shortwave and low pressure system will move through the
Northern Plains Tuesday night into Minnesota on Wednesday then
continue east Wednesday night. We ramp up POPs from west to east
Tuesday night into Wednesday. There remains a chance for some strong
storms Tuesday night with strong/severe storms possible Wednesday
into Wednesday evening.

There will be periodic chances for showers/storms Thursday through
next weekend as several more shortwaves are forecast to affect the
region. There will likely be some dry periods but with all the model
uncertainty, it`s too difficult to determine when at this time.
Temperatures will be near or below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

An upper level low was moving through central Minnesota and it
will continue southeast through the period moving into central
Wisconsin this evening. Yet another shortwave will move south out
of Canada tonight impacting the region into Sunday night. These
features along with instability from the colder air in place will
continue to cause showers and a few thunderstorms across the
Northland through the period. The showers will likely diminish for
a time tonight but with the second shortwave will cause them to
increase from north to south overnight into Sunday. Mostly VFR
conditions were occurring early this afternoon but will lower to
MVFR or IFR late today into tonight and continue Sunday morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  60  46  68 /  40  70  50  10
INL  49  60  43  69 /  70  70  20  10
BRD  50  64  45  70 /  30  20  10   0
HYR  48  63  45  68 /  30  70  40  20
ASX  50  63  46  69 /  30  70  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde



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