Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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695
FXUS63 KDLH 060312
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1012 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COUPLE OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FORMED IN ST. LOUIS COUNTY NEAR ORB
TO COOK AND ARE DRIFTING OVER THE VIRGINIA AREA AT 1010PM. THIS IS
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AN EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MAX. UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS. REST OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

RADAR ECHOES IN NW WI ARE DISSIPATING AND NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
NW WI. REMOVED THE POPS FROM TONIGHT FOR NE MN WITH NO FORCING
MECHANISM NEARBY TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS
DECOUPLING AND INVERSION IS SETTING UP WHICH ALSO PRECLUDES ANY
MENTION OF RAIN. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO SET IN
ALOFT...BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE HIGH TEENS...WITH
VALUES OF 18 TO 20 DEGREES OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS GOING TO
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES VERY WARM TONIGHT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS GOING TO SET US UP
FOR A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY...AS THE ALREADY WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW DRY WE WILL BE...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE WINDS...IT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN AS STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DRY AND MILD STRETCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. FORECAST HAS LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN VARIOUS
MODELS...BUT OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE RAINING ALL WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN THE WARM AIR MOVING
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. HOWEVER...AS TWO
LOWS APPROACH FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST NEXT WEEK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS BY LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OVERALL SEASONABLE TO
JUST ABOUT NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WARMEST DAY WILL BE
MONDAY WHERE TEMPS INLAND REACH THE LOW 70S...OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE
60S THROUGH THE WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LOWS MAY DIP DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A FRIENDLY REMINDER TO GARDENERS THAT THE LAST 32 DEGREE FREEZE IS
TYPICALLY IN MID TO LATE MAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP JUST BEFORE NOON FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18Z TO THE END OF THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR SOME LLWS AFTER SUNSET AS
A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN
THE MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  82  45  65 /  10  30  30   0
INL  56  83  40  64 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  86  46  68 /  10  20  20   0
HYR  51  84  47  66 /  10  20  50   0
ASX  51  83  47  64 /  10  30  60   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001-002-
     006>008.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF



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