Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 291741
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1241 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Cumulus field is rapidly developing over the forecast area. Have
adjusted sky grids to account for the clouds. However, overall
coverage of the clouds will not be seen until early afternoon and
will update again at that time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Tranquil weather pattern for the beginning of the weekend with
seasonable temperatures and mostly sunny skies due to an area of
high pressure slowly moving from eastern North Dakota early this
morning east towards Lake Superior Saturday.

Not much to discuss in this pattern with high pressure slowly moving
across the region. Yesterday, almost all guidance - convection-
allowing (HiRes ARW/NMMb) and parameterized (GFS/ECMWF) alike - was
aggressive in indicating showers across parts of north-central
Minnesota, which never developed (as predicted by our forecasts).
Again today, even directly under the high pressure center, guidance
is indicating light rain showers in north-central Minnesota despite
the subsidence in place. Steep lapse rates and deep mixing from
diurnal heating will again lead to afternoon clouds, but no
precipitation is expected to develop. Winds will be light to near-
calm, with winds less than 10 knots through almost the entire
vertical column today - need to climb to about 30kft above the
ground to find a blustery 20 knot breeze! Thus, despite the deep
mixing winds will be light out of the east. The exception will be
along the Lake Superior shoreline where a lake breeze will develop
in the early to mid afternoon due to the land/water differential
heating, though still these winds should be less than 10 knots
(12mph). Highs seasonable in the 70s - cool by the big lake, warmer
inland.

Overnight tonight patchy fog will be possible as the airmass will
change little from this morning when patchy fog developed. With a
drier airmass moving in fog is not anticipated to be particularly
widespread nor dense. Lows similar to this morning in the upper 40s
to low 50s - warmest across north-central Minnesota where winds will
turn southerly by the evening hours as the high pressure moves off
to the east.

Slightly warmer Saturday with winds out of the south at 5-10mph due
to the high pressure moving off to the east and an area of low
pressure developing over the central/northern high plains.
Increasing clouds across north-central Minnesota from Friday
convection in eastern North Dakota. While along the immediate
lakeshore cooler temperatures are possible due to a lake breeze,
most locations will reach the mid to upper 70s under mostly sunny
skies.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

The relatively quiet period of weather will continue through Sunday
as the ridge of high pressure dominates the area as it moves east
into the central great lakes.  Since the region will be on the west
side of the ridge...temperatures will begin to increase each day
along with the dewpoints.  Highs on Sunday will be around 80 along
with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s.

Beginning Sunday night and continuing into mid-week, the upper level
ridge flattens and a series of ridge rider shortwaves move through
the region.  The temperatures will continue to rise into the 80s
with dewpoints in the middle 60s to lower 70s.  As the the
shortwaves move through the forecast area, there will be rounds of
showers and thunderstorms each day through Thursday morning.  The
first round will come through late Sunday night through Monday
night.  There will be a small break on Tuesday before the next
shortwave affects the region.  There will be a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday along with a
cold front.  Cooler and drier air moves into the forecast area on
Friday behind the front ending the warm and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

VFR conditions expected to continue for much of the TAF period.
As the airmass will be the same tonight as it was last night
expect fog at the same locations where it was observed this
morning. The sunshine and drying during the day today should cause
visibilities to be higher than they were this morning, so have
gone with tempo groups for MVFR visibilities generally 08z-12z for
KHIB, KBRD and KHYR. Generally light northeast winds to continue
at less than 10kts, with the exception of KDLH where we should be
10-15kts this afternoon before diminishing again after 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  52  75  57 /   0   0  10   0
INL  79  53  80  58 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  78  55  77  59 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  77  52  78  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  74  52  76  59 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...LE


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