Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 220531 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SFC HIGH WAS SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 18Z BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRY AIR WAS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION
THANKS TO NNW SFC LOW AND ALOFT. EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKY TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD. KEPT WITH THE BELOW
GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THIS ALLOWS FOR THE TYPICAL WAA REGIME TO BEGIN AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE...HOWEVER WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITH THIS WAA. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN ITS
SLOW NORTHWARD APPROACH TO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND WITH ITS EVENTUAL ARRIVAL TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIP AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW... BUT THE CONSENSUS WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/GEM/SREF HAS BACKED OFF ON
TIMING AND QPF COVERAGE. THEREFORE... HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY... SO
NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDAY. NAM12 REVEALS 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA 18Z SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
OF MUCAPE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME... BUT THIS ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S... AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE BUILDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT...EASTWARDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
ALL TERMINALS. KINL MAY SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z DUE TO MIXING FROM DAY TIME HEATING...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
LOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  69  47  65 /   0  20  30  40
INL  46  75  45  70 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  48  67  50  68 /   0  30  30  50
HYR  45  70  47  71 /   0  20  30  40
ASX  45  73  47  69 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL






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