Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 300854
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
354 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

The Northland will reside underneath weak high pressure ridging
today, which will lead to sunny skies (at least this morning), and
much warmer temps than the past several days. However, the
forecast is not straight-forward, and there are several minor
details that cast some uncertainty to the forecast for this
afternoon and evening. First, with full sun this morning, mixing
will be considerably deeper than yesterday, resulting in more
robust instability by afternoon. In addition, a weak wave sliding
southeastward across Ontario will reinforce a weak frontal zone
lying across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. These two
factors, along with support from much of the short range model
suite, seem to suggest some potential for isolated to scattered
showers/T-Storms this afternoon and evening - especially across
areas north of US Highway 2. We have introduced PoPs for this time
range, and included a mention of thunder.

Much higher chances for organized rain and T-Storms should then
spread west to east across the region later tonight and Tuesday as
some form of a decaying MCS translates eastward from the Dakotas.
The going forecast had this handled reasonably well, so we did not
make any major changes other than to fine tune the timing and
adjust PoPs upward a bit. An easterly surge of cooler air off Lake
Superior appears rather likely with this system, and Tuesday could
end up being another rather cold, rainy and foggy day for many
places in the Twin Ports vicinity and points north and northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Strong, nearly stacked low pressure system over northwest Minnesota
Tuesday evening will move slowly northeast through Tuesday night and
Wednesday, keeping high chances for showers and thunderstorms over
the area through even Wednesday night.  It will mean another period
of wet, stormy and gloomy weather for the area with highs only in
the 60s to near 70 for Wednesday.

Ridging will build across the area Thursday and Thursday night,
bringing quieter weather into early Friday.  Colder air brought into
the area behind the exiting upper low system will keep temperatures
on the cool side, with highs in the 60s Thursday again.

Another fairly strong shortwave will dive into the area beginning on
Friday, moving in faster than previous model runs had it.  The
approach of this storm will bring warmer temperatures for Friday
along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms that
continue through much of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

High pressure will continue building into the region overnight.
This will provide light winds and clear skies at all terminals. As
a result expecting fog development. This will result in a visby
reduction down to the MVFR/IFR/LIFR range. Not overly confident in
fog development at KDLH as winds may remain high enough to keep
radiational fog from forming, but hinted at between 09z to 12z.
Any radiational fog that develops overnight will burn off during
the morning as winds increase, which will return all terminals to
VFR conditions.

Due to daytime heating and a weak warm frontal like boundary in
northern MN, per the 00z GFS/NAM/HRRR/RAP. Expecting scattered
showers with some thunderstorms possible at KDLH/KINL/KHIB
starting around 18z. Will see additional showers and storms move
in from the west between 00z and 06z as a low moves into western
MN. Think that KHYR will stay out of this activity until after
06z. Uncertain on how widespread or exact location of
thunderstorm activity, so left in as VCSH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  47  50  45 /  10  40  70  50
INL  78  48  60  50 /  10  20  70  60
BRD  80  55  70  52 /  10  80  60  30
HYR  80  50  72  53 /   0  40  80  60
ASX  79  47  61  48 /   0  20  80  70

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$



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