Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 261141
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
641 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

It will be another warm and humid day across the Northland, with
highs in the lower 80s, despite a subtle cold front which will
slowly move through the Northland today and tonight as high
pressure in Canada noses into the Northern Plains and northern
Minnesota. The models generally indicate the front could be the
trigger mechanism for showers and storms, especially late this
afternoon and this evening after peak heating, and tonight when
there could be some extra lift generated by a passing shortwave.
The greatest pcpn chances of storms this afternoon and tonight is
near and south of Highway 2, where some storms could be strong
with gusty winds and small hail. However, for the most part, it
appears the lack of deep layer wind shear will limit the threat of
severe weather.

Wednesday looks a little cooler and cloudier, with highs in the
middle to upper 70s. Cool easterly flow will develop from Lake
Superior, and the diffuse cold front will likely shift south of
the forecast area, or near the far southern forecast area. The
models are in fairly good agreement in the indication that the
combination of daytime heating and a passing shortwave could
develop showers and storms across the southern forecast area. The
threat of strong storms looks pretty low, once again limited by
the lack of deep layer wind shear.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Northwest flow aloft will help push the frontal boundary further
south Wednesday night as high pressure over Manitoba/northwest
Ontario pushes further south. There will be a chance for
showers/storms along our southern zones Wednesday night with
clearing occurring over the far north. We kept a chance for
showers/storms from about Pine City east northeast through Hayward
and Park Falls on Thursday as some weak convergence will remain
there.

Most areas will be dry Thursday night into Friday night with weak
high pressure in control.

The GFS is quicker pushing the high east Saturday versus the
ECMWF which allows for a return flow to set up quicker. A
shortwave will also be moving through the area Saturday. We have a
chance for showers/storms Saturday over our Minnesota zones into
far northwest Wisconsin. There isn`t any significant forcing
Sunday into Monday, but a moist and unstable airmass will be in
place. We have some low pops for the possibility for a storm
during this period. Dewpoints will continue to rise Saturday
through Tuesday with mid fifties to lower sixties Saturday rising
well into the sixties for most areas Monday with some values
around 70 on Tuesday. A frontal boundary will be moving into this
moist and unstable airmass Monday night through Wednesday
providing a better chance for thunderstorms, some of which could
be severe and produce heavy rain.

Temperatures will start out in the seventies on Thursday through
Saturday then rise into the eighties Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

A trough, cold front, and shortwave aloft will be at least
partially responsible for causing showers and storms across the
Northland today into tonight. The shower/storm chances will be
decreasing across far northern Minnesota through the day. Current
conditions and model guidance suggests coverage will be mostly
scattered. Timing these showers/storms will be a challenge and
for the most part we highlighted the time period we are most
confident. Updates will be made as confidence grows in where
storms will be most numerous. Overall, VFR conditions can be
expected with brief MVFR conditions with the stronger
showers/storms. Also, some patchy fog will be possible later
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  83  62  75  56 /  30  40  20  10
INL  83  56  78  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  85  63  78  59 /  40  50  50  20
HYR  85  63  78  57 /  40  50  50  40
ASX  85  62  76  57 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde



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