Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 011153
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED WEAK STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NERN MN...AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A RELATIVELY
COOL AIR MASS ALOFT IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A NARROW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
SLIDES TO THE S/SE. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
SRN MN AND INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE AND COOL FLOW ALOFT OVER A WARM SFC LAYER
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.

THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THE SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER
INFLUENCE OVER THE SRN COUNTIES. A WEAK INCOMING S/W ALOFT FROM
THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATER
TODAY TO PRODUCE THE CONVECTION. WILL ONLY SEE A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO THE THREAT OF
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING
IS ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPS. HOWEVER...ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A BUMP IN HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH OUR PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. FRIDAY HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR
SURGING INTO THIS SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD HELP BRING MAX
TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
THE WEAKER RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE QUIETER WEATHER WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES...THOUGH
IT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS DUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG.  HOWEVER...THE TIMING
IS A LITTLE LATER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND AM BEGINNING TO
HAVE SOME DOUBTS OVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  TEMPERATURES TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ONCE AGAIN.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
SOME COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON THAT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS GROUPS FOR KINL AND
KHIB. BY THE TIME THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES KDLH WE WILL HAVE
LOST A LOT OF THE INSTABILITY AND HAVE CONVERTED TO VCSH FOR AFTER
03Z. KBRD AND KHYR TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  75  58 /   0   0  10  10
INL  76  53  78  58 /  30  10  20  30
BRD  76  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  73  48  78  55 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  70  48  77  56 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE


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