Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240957
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
357 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

AT 345 AM...THE UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUED ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THERE WERE EVEN SOME TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AT 3 AM. THERE WERE A FEW AREAS OF CLOUDS...WITH A MIX OF
STRATOCUMULUS AND MID CLOUDS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY AREA BY LATER SUNDAY. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE EVOLVING AND STRENGTHENING AS IT DROPS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW
WE COULD SEE IN OUR CWA. ALSO EXPECTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH SHORE AREA
AND POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE DULUTH AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A LIKELY POP
FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND WEST AREAS BY TONIGHT...WHERE AN INCH OR
TWO OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE LOWEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME FALLING TEMPS IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE ARROWHEAD TONIGHT...AND TEMPS
WILL FALL BELOW ZERO. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION DRIES THINGS OUT. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK
ON MONDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHTER SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BRING
ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE AREA.  AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS
EVENT IN TIME MODELS MAY BE ABLE TO RESOLVE A TIGHTER TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT...AND A TIGHTER SNOW WATER RATIO GRADIENT AS WELL...LEADING
TO HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTHEAST. THIS IS JUST
SPECULATION AT THIS TIME...AND WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS RESOLVES
OVER TIME.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT IN SOME CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THE MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP TYPES AS THIS WAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP OFF AND TURN THINGS
BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW.  SO...HAVE PUT IN SOME MIXED PRECIP TYPES
EARLY ON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE LOTS OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME AND HAVE LEFT THE CONSENSUS BLEND AS IS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST WITH SOME
ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS IN NE MN AND NW WI. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH BY 08Z. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST CROSSING OVER THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND
FLURRIES THAT WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MORE PREDOMINATE LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BRD BY 00Z/25.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  16  18  15 /  30  70  20  70
INL  29   3  17  14 /  20  30  10  70
BRD  34  21  23  20 /  30  70  10  40
HYR  35  16  21  13 /  30  70  10  40
ASX  34  16  19  12 /  30  50  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF





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