370
FXUS63 KDLH 151801 AAC
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
101 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Update for new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Made some minor adjustments to the PoPs, sky cover and temps/
dewpoints for this morning and afternoon. Current GOES-16 visible
satellite imagery shows some low clouds hanging around the area as
of 1545Z, so adjusted sky cover accordingly. It does appear that
these clouds are starting to thin out a bit, but some higher level
clouds are moving in from the west ahead of a weak shortwave that
will bring small chances of showers to portions of the region
this afternoon. PoP updates were mainly to trim down the northern
extent as the latest convective-allowing models indicate light
precipitation extending from Grand Rapids to the Twin Ports to
Hayward, and points south of these areas for this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

At 4 AM, rain continued across northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin, while rain was ending across the western third of the
CWA. Temperatures were generally in the 30s to lower 40s.

The focus for today will be the low pressure system moving
through the Great Lakes region. The deformation zone helping to
bring the precipitation to our CWA will gradually pull off to the
east today, allowing the rain to end from west to east. Skies were
already clearing across the northwest part of the CWA, with clear
skies at International Falls. We will continue to see skies clear
from west to east, bringing a fair amount of sunshine to most
areas as the morning wears on.

While one system exits, another moves in, as a trough moves
across Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Will add mention of
some showers to the west early this afternoon, and to the western
half of the CWA during the remainder of the afternoon. Although
the chance of showers should diminish tonight, we could see some
light showers linger across the central and eastern portions of
the CWA during the evening.

Highs today will range from the mid 40s in the Arrowhead to the
upper 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.

Cloud cover will again decrease from west to east tonight, as
high pressure moves in behind the departing surface trough. Lows
will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Monday is shaping up to be a quiet day, with partly to mostly
sunny skies. Highs will range from the lower 50s in the Arrowhead
to the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The Northland will have a dry and relatively warm week. A
low/mid- level thermal ridge will build into the Northland Tuesday
into early Wednesday. A strong cold front, associated with a low
well north in Canada, will sweep through the Northland Wednesday
afternoon and evening, bringing a brief cool down for the middle
of the week. However, another wave of warm air will build into the
region Thursday into Saturday. This extended period of southerly
flow will bring 850 hpa temperatures to 15 to 18 degrees Celsius!
Model guidance for surface high temperatures may be too weighted
towards climatology. Increased the forecasts a bit over the
previous forecast. Highs will likely be in the middle to upper 60s
for much of the Northland late this week, about 15 degrees above
seasonal normal.

Another surface low in Canada will likely bring a cold front
through the Northland sometime Saturday. There could be very light
rain with its passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A compact and fast-moving shortwave trough will pass through the
Northland this afternoon and this evening. Morning ceilings will
continue to erode early this afternoon as the mixed layer depth
increases. Middle and upper level clouds will accompany the trough
and a few sprinkles are possible at BRD. Skies will clear in the
wake of the trough tonight. Some terminals will see fog
developing, mainly those sites which both received rainfall last
night and experience calm winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  33  55  41 /  10  10   0   0
INL  48  27  58  38 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  49  33  59  40 /  30  20   0   0
HYR  49  33  57  39 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  51  34  57  42 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTS
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Huyck