Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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231
FXUS63 KDLH 050550
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1150 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CLIPPERS TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR
THE SHORT TERM.  THE WEAK CLIPPER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS
EVENING...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE WHICH WILL BE MOVING IN
FOR FRIDAY.  THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS GETTING AT LEAST
A SHORT PERIOD OF CLEARING TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO HAVE GONE
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.  AM GOING A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT AS WE SHOULD HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS...BUT THE PLACES WHERE WE
MAY HAVE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE LONGEST HAVE DROPPED MIN TEMPS TO BELOW
ZERO.  RADAR HAS BEEN OVERSHOOTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE
NORTH SHORE TODAY...BUT WITH FAVORABLE WINDS GRAND MARAIS HAS BEEN 1-
2SM IN -SN MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE TURNING MORE
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE CLIPPER FOR FRIDAY SWEEPS OUT OF THE MONTANA
ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD BRING SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND MAY BRING ANOTHER INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.  HIGH TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

00Z SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND AS AN UPPER TROF KEEPS NW FLOW IN PLACE. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY... BUT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING LOW WILL BEGIN TO FUNNEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ALMOST IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING CLIPPER. THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... KEEPING TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM AND
ABOVE AVERAGE. THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND
MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE FACT THAT MAX
SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEARING THE FREEZING POINT SUNDAY... CAA WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE UPPER LEVELS... PREVENTING ANY INVERSIONS THAT
MAY CAUSE A P-TYPE SWITCHOVER AS INDICATED BY NAM BUFKIT FCST
SOUNDINGS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE EXPECTED... WITH THE TIP OF
THE MN ARROWHEAD NEARING ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. UPPED POPS IN
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO KEEP THIS EVENT VISIBLE FOR THE
PUBLIC. THE LOW WILL REACH LAKE HURON BY 12Z MONDAY BUT THE BROAD
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST UNTIL TUESDAY.
STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM... USHERING SUBZERO TEMPS INTO THE FCST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE
PERIOD... WHICH WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THE JET STREAM WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL THURSDAY
WHICH WILL WARM THINGS BACK UP TO CLIMO TO END THE WEEK.

BECAUSE NW FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AND
EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH MOIST CONDITIONS... LES WILL REMAIN A
PROBABILITY AS INDICATED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TECHNIQUES
APPLIED TO ECMWF/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MVFR CIGS THAT WERE AROUND EARLIER WERE GRADUALLY MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST...WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL PATCHES STILL MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BECOME VFR AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING
MORE STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AS
A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS COME BACK INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   0  24  13  26 /  10  60  60  10
INL  -2  22  10  24 /  10  30  40  30
BRD   0  24  11  31 /   0  70  20   0
HYR  -6  23  16  29 /  10  60  60  10
ASX   0  26  17  28 /  30  50  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...DAP



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