000
FXUS63 KDLH 202232
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
532 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL S
OF PRICE COUNTY WI AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION. MADE SOME OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN ELONGATED SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM CTRL MANITOBA ACROSS THE NRN
CWA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED SUNNY SKIES TO
COVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SRN EDGE OF PRICE
COUNTY WHERE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN FRONTAL BDRY ARE MOVING
ENE.  AS OR EARLY AFTN TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW 70S IN A FEW
SPOTS OTHERWISE 60S ARE MORE COMMON AT INLAND LOCATIONS WITH 50S AND
A FEW 40S CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

TONIGHT...A WESTERLY MID LVL FLOW WILL KEEP THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE. TWO FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE OLD FRONTAL
BDRY LOCATED OVER SRN MN AND THE APPROACHING SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER
ND. SHOULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
ND SYSTEM HEADS OUR WAY. THE FRONTAL BDRY SOUTH OF THE CWA WILL
PUSH NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER SCTRL/SERN CWA. BR/FG IS POSSIBLE OVER SRN CWA IN
ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ND
WILL PUSH INTO THE NWRN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIP.

TOMORROW...VERY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SFC/MID LVL FEATURES SO EXPECT
ANY LIGHT PRECIP TO QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HRS. MAIN DISTINGUISHING WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. TEMPERATURES MAY SHOW A NON
DIURNAL TREND BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT OVER MN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY HOWEVER STILL ABOVE CLIMO IN
MOST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  NIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  IT WILL BE A REMAIN
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE STORMS SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  IT IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE MODELS SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW BUT BOTH SUGGEST PTYPE WILL BE
ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THE GFS HAS THE CENTER
IN SOUTHERN MN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER IN WESTERN IOWA AT 12Z
THU.  THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER ON
THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER AROUND EAU.  WILL USE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THE SOLUTION.  AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...THE MODELS STILL INDICATES CAPE ALONG WITH SEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN CURRENT GRIDS.  COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE E.  THERE WILL
BE A CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH SLEET POSSIBLE.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THIS TIME.   WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS..THE TIMING AND PTYPE COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING RUNS.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN SHOWERS AT THE INL TAF SITE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  59  33  50 /  20  20   0   0
INL  40  53  31  50 /  20  20  10   0
BRD  44  61  34  56 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  38  64  33  52 /  20  20   0   0
ASX  33  59  33  47 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART