000
FXUS63 KDLH 212135
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
435 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOT AND HUMID OUT THERE TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE
HAVE HAD ALL YEAR COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S.  HEAT
INDEXES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE 95 TO
105 SO FAR TODAY...WITH EVEN DULUTH IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A HEAT
INDEX FROM 95- AROUND 100.  THIS AIRMASS IS AFFECTING MOST OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  A STRONG
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ON UP INTO ONTARIO.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
IS UP OVER  SOTHERN CANADA...WITH SOME STRONG WESTERLIES AT THE MID
LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.  OUR WARM SECTOR HAS
DEVELOPED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3-5 THOUSAND J/KG IN THIS AIRMASS...BUT
AN EML OVER THIS SAME AREA HAS PLACED A CAP OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA
AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND IS PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER THERE...WHERE
THE INSTABILITY WEAKEST CAP AND BEST FORCING ARE.

TONIGHT WILL BE VERY VERY INTERESTING CONVECTION WISE...WITH THE
MAIN CONCERNS THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SEVERE MCS THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.  CURRENT CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GROW AND MOVE EAST...LIKELY ACCELERATING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM
THIS EVENING...THEN CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKELY...WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY POSSIBILITY
THOUGH WITH ALL THIS HEAT AROUND WEB BULB ZEROS ARE A BIT HIGH.
FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AXIS OF STRONG STORMS WILL RUN
RIGHT ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THAT AREA. THUS...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS LOOKING AT A SHOT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA GETTING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN.  AM CARRYING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR NEARLY THE
WHOLE CWA OVERNIGHT.   AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS ONLY TO RISE
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES.  THE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THUS...THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL NOT LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY...AND MAY EVEN NEED TO
BE EXTENDED IF TEMPERATURES STAY UP THROUGH SUNSET.  OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THERE COULD BE LINGERING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORM COMPLEX THAT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NE MINNESOTA
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...SUCH AS THE IRON RANGE AND THE ARROWHEAD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...AND CLEARER SKIES WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER.

THE MODELS INDICATE A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH AND
CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WILL GET OFF AS IT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND WITH
THE UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION COULD SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING A PERIOD OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS A BAND OF BKN/SCT MVFR CIGS OVER PARTS
OF NE MINNESOTA...SO KHIB AND KBRD COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT
DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STORM COMPLEX TO
FORM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN SPREAD INTO NE MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS STORM COMPLEX...IF IT FORMS AND HEADS INTO NE
MINNESOTA...COULD BRING SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS COULD MAKE IT AS FAR
EAST AS KHYR IN NW WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE GREATEST
THREAT IS FOR THE KBRD AND KINL AREAS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOWERING CIGS LATER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. MOST TERMINALS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  78  55  73 /  90  60   0   0
INL  65  76  52  75 /  90  60   0   0
BRD  70  81  57  78 /  70  20   0   0
HYR  73  82  55  76 /  70  40   0   0
ASX  70  79  54  71 /  70  60   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ025-026-033>038.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001-006.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI