Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 161825

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
125 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a line from east of
Moose Lake to Ashland to near Saxon Harbor, WI. The HRRR has a
very good handle on this activity and have updated pops/weather

UPDATE Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Updated aviation section below.

UPDATE Issued at 953 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A weak surface trof was located from the tip of the Arrowhead to
McGregor. A west southwest flow was occurring ahead of the trof
and northwest behind it. Temps had warmed into the 60s over the
Borderland, to the lower 70s elsewhere. Clouds are on the
increase over the southern tier of the forecast area in response
to embedded impulses moving through the quasi-zonal flow aloft.
Expect additional cloud development through the morning and
afternoon as clouds upstream in Canada and the Dakotas move
eastward. No changes to the pops/weather, but increased cloud
cover and made some other minor adjustments.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

At 330 AM, skies were clear to partly cloudy across the Northland,
with KDLH radar indicating dry weather across the area. A major
upper level trough was situated across south central Canada, while
our CWA remained under the influence of the upper level trough.
Temperatures were largely in the 50s this morning.

The focus for today through Saturday will be the evolution of a
major upper level shortwave that will amplify across the Upper
Midwest/Western Great Lakes.

Today will be a day of transition across the Northland. A couple
weak features will likely set off some spotty showers and
thunderstorms, but the coverage and rainfall amounts will be
fairly limited. The rather benign features of today will gradually
give way to an amplifying upper level trough on Saturday. The
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be more limited tonight,
but showers and storms should increase considerably on Saturday.
While there will be some limited instability, the main
precipitation type should be showers. The best chance of showers
and storms should arrive at some point Saturday afternoon.

Highs today will range from the 70s in the north to the 80s
south. Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s, with highs on
Saturday ranging from the upper 60s north to the 70s south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

The Northland can expect a period of cooler than normal weather the
second half of the weekend through nearly the first half of the
upcoming week. There will be periodic chances for showers and

There will be an area of low pressure over Ontario by Saturday
evening. Showers and storms are possible with the passage and in the
wake of a cold front. Cool northwest flow, combined with daytime
heating, could develop light showers Sunday. Highs will only be in
the low to middle 60s.

The cool northwest flow will continue Monday. Light showers are
possible. More showers are possible Monday night through Tuesday
with the passage of a shortwave trough and reinforcing cool front.
There could be storms Tuesday afternoon.

High pressure might provide a period of sunnier and drier weather
for Wednesday. Temperatures will rebound to the low to middle 70s.
Another cool front passage Wednesday evening and Thursday could
bring showers and storms.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected across the terminals for much of the
forecast period. West to southwest flow is expected through sunset
(approx 02Z) with enough instability for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms as well, with cloud bases around 5kft.
Have left at VCSH for now due to uncertainty. Some showers are
likely to still be in the area after 02Z, but location and timing
more uncertain so have left out of terminals for now. New
convective development is expected beginning around 10Z over
northern Minnesota and spreading east from there, and have
included VCSH for now for KINL, KHIB and KDLH for the remainder of
the period. Expect this development to expand and become more
widespread after 18Z.


DLH  78  54  73  53 /  10  30  60  60
INL  73  51  68  51 /  60  40  50  40
BRD  81  55  76  54 /  30  30  60  60
HYR  81  56  78  55 /  10  20  60  70
ASX  82  55  76  53 /  50  30  60  70




LONG TERM...Grochocinski
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