Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 020532
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS
TONIGHT. LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE NAM MOS AND GFS MOS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE USUAL COLD
SUSPECTS...LIKE EMBARRASS...COULD DROP TO THE LOW 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE
NORTHLAND CONCERNING CLOUD COVER OR PCPN CHANCES. THE SUNNY
SKIES...DRY HUMIDITY...AND LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S...SAVE FOR 50S CLOSE TO
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS FOR DULUTH...THE HIGHS SHOULD FROM THE UPPER
50S DOWNTOWN...TO AROUND 65 FOR INLAND AREAS LIKE AT THE AIRPORT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LONG TERM CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA EAST INTO NW WI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE MN
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WI TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE
SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE PASSAGE AND WILL PUT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
BUT...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 25-25 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE RAIN FREE
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 28-38
PERCENT RANGE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NE MN FRIDAY NIGHT AND NW WI SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW 400-800 CAPES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA POSSIBLE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  65  43  65 /   0   0  10  20
INL  28  67  43  62 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  35  66  45  69 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  31  65  42  66 /   0   0  10  30
ASX  31  62  40  63 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GRANING/MELDE


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