Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 091705
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1205 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING FCST WITH SHOWERS IN GRIDS.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS/TEMPS

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF NE MN AND A PORTION OF NW WI NEAR MI. THE REST OF NW WI IS
MAINLY CLEAR. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND THE CLOUDY PORTION OF NW WI. THIS PRECIP
WILL MOVE SE OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS WEST TO EAST TODAY. THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BREAK UP. ACROSS SOUTHERN IRON AND ASHLAND
COUNTIES ALONG WITH ALL OF PRICE COUNTY MAY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT CREATING SOME
INSTABILITY. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

MID LVL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION THIS PERIOD FROM A FLAT WESTERLY
FLOW TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE GT LAKES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.ASA RESULT AT REND TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
BY THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. INITIAL CHANGE OCCURS THUR NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE WITH INCREASING
RW/TRW FROM WEST TO EAST. SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP SLIGHTLY
OVER ERN CWA BASED ON LATEST MDL CONSENSUS. FNTL BDRY WILL CROSS
THE CWA FRIDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME. PLACEMENT OF
STRONGEST FORCING IS NOT REALISTIC AT THIS POINT SO EVENTUAL
RELOCATION OF AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS MAY BE NECESSARY. POST FRONTAL
DEEP LAYER DRYING OCCURS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT SO AT THIS POINT SATURDAY
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY DRY DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPPER TROF AMPLIFICATION WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION FROM SAT NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN IN SUMMER WILL PROMOTE INSTABILITY RW/TRW WITH A DISTINCT
TREND TOWARDS DIURNAL MODULATION...HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
WHEN THE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. GEM/ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT AN
ANOMALOUS SFC/MID LVL LOW NEAR...YOU GUESSED IT...HUDSON BAY BY
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MED RANGE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE
MAGNITUDE/TIMING OF THE THERMAL TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE  DEEP UPPER
CIRCULATION...A CONSISTENT MESSAGE OF CHILLY TEMPS IS GIVEN. MAX
TEMPS MAY APPROACH 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  74  57 /  10   0   0  20
INL  71  47  77  61 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  76  53  79  65 /  10   0  10  50
HYR  74  49  79  61 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  71  47  74  57 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GSF





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