Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 111738
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1138 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1038 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Snow continued to fall across much of the Northland but was
diminishing over western Minnesota and that trend will continue
toward the east through the day into the evening. Water vapor
imagery showed a wave lifting north through Iowa and area radars
showed areas of snow well south that was moving north toward
northern Wisconsin. We are leaning toward letting the far western
portions of the Advisory or Warning expire at noon but extending
Pine County or possibly Aitkin on north through Saint Louis
Counties through 4 pm. We will make that decision over the next
hour or so. We plan on keeping the Winter Storm Warning for Sawyer
and Price Counties as well as much of the guidance brings in
heavier snow this afternoon, although the heavier snow should fall
over eastern Sawyer County. New snow this afternoon will range
from 1 inch to 4 inches from far eastern Minnesota into northern
Wisconsin. More snow will fall along the South Shore tonight, from
far northeast Douglas County east through the Gogebic Range.
Additional snow from 1 to 3 inches will be possible.

UPDATE Issued at 713 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Have upgraded Koochiching, central and northern St. Louis, Itasca
and northern Cass county to a winter storm warning as well. Have
been receiving some 6 inch plus reports this morning. No other
changes to the headlines/amounts. The heavier snow appears to be
in the favored dendritic growth zone, and also favorable mid level
fgen.

UPDATE Issued at 557 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Update for new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 425 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

At 4 AM, snow continued across much of northeast Minnesota.
Meanwhile, drizzle and freezing drizzle continued across east
central Minnesota, the north shore and much of northern Wisconsin.
There was a huge range in temperatures this morning, with
temperatures approaching zero in the far western portion of the
CWA, and in the mid to upper 30s across the eastern CWA, ahead of
the cold front.

The obvious focus for today will be the low pressure
system/arctic front moving across the region. There seems to be
pretty good agreement that there will be two main areas of
precipitation today. The first will be across northeast Minnesota,
especially northwest of Duluth. A look at area road cams and
other webcams indicates that the snow was really accumulating
across much of northeast Minnesota. Roads were snow covered and
slippery from Ely to the Iron Range, and southwest to the Brainerd
Lakes region. South and east of that area, drizzle and freezing
drizzle has been prevalent. As the morning wears on, we should see
a band of snow develop across northwest Wisconsin, as moisture
lifts northeast from the central Plains. Total snow accumulation
should range from 3 to 6 inches in the north, to 2 to 4 from
Brainerd, to the Twin Ports and east central Minnesota. In
northwest Wisconsin, the highest amounts are expected east of
Hayward and Ashland. Total snow accumulation through tonight
should range from 4 to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts along
the Gogebic Range.

The other big news today will be gusty northwest winds, along
with falling temperatures. Temperatures will drop so rapidly, that
we are expecting a quick freeze in areas that have seen
temperatures above freezing overnight. This will cause roads to
become slick for the morning commute for much of the area. There
should be some blowing snow, especially on the Minnesota side. As
a result of the combined winter weather, we will continue the
Winter Weather Advisory across the Northland today. We will also
continue the Winter Storm Warning for eastern portions of our
Wisconsin area.

Temperatures will fall into the 20s and possibly even 30s below
zero range across the north tonight, and we will likely need wind
chill headlines. Will transition this system out before issuing
those headlines so as to not confuse the situation today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

The main concerns for the long term include a quick burst of snow
Sunday and Sunday night along with a prolonged period of colder
temperatures.

Arctic air in place across the region Friday evening will linger
through Saturday. A ridge of high pressure will slide across the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon and Sunday.
Winds aloft will back westerly and eventually southwesterly,
nudging the Arctic air east toward Quebec. Bitter cold wind chills
are expected Saturday morning between -25 and -40, with highs
remaining near zero for the Northland. The surge of warmer air
will be short lived. Lows Sunday morning will be a few degrees
warmer, in the -10 to -20 range. Highs will warm into the single
digits above zero. A shortwave trough is expected to dive out of
the Canadian Prairies and into the Upper Midwest by Sunday
evening. The clipper will bring a quick burst of light snow with
accumulation of 1 to 3 inches expected. Behind the clipper,
another surge of Arctic air will pour into the region with
temperatures trending cooler for the start of the work week. Wind
chills Monday morning will range from -15 to -40, with the warmest
values in north-central Wisconsin. Temps remain cool on Tuesday
with another warm-up on tap for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

A range of MVFR to LIFR conditions continue across the Northland
as a potent surface low makes its way over Lake Superior.
Conditions should gradually improve from west to east as the low
exits the region this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds and light
snow will maintain lower visibilities due to blowing snow through
at least the middle afternoon. It`s possible that lower
visibilities could linger later than what is in the TAFs due to
these gusty winds but are still expected to improve by the evening
hours. Ceilings could also approach MVFR or lower in some
locations across the area as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17 -13   1 -17 / 100  10   0   0
INL   3 -30  -4 -27 /  90   0   0   0
BRD   6 -17   2 -20 /  90   0   0   0
HYR  41  -9   6 -17 / 100  20   0   0
ASX  33  -3   7  -9 / 100  50  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for WIZ001-
     006-007.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ008-009.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for WIZ003-004.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ002.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ033>036.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for MNZ010-011-018-019-
     025-026.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ012-
     020-021-037-038.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Friday for LSZ121-146>148.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for
     LSZ146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ143>145.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTS
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...JTS



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