Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 101154 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014


.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

AT 330 AM...IT WAS QUITE COOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES WERE LARGELY IN THE 40 TO 45 RANGE ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE WI CWA.
OTHERWISE IT WAS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD AT TIMES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE NAM BRINGS SOME LIGHT QPF
TO THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE 4 KM NMM WRF
ALSO BRINGS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THAT AREA DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

BY 00Z FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...AND OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z FRIDAY. STRONG WAA
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...ALONG WITH THE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD HELP TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN DECREASED POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD DESTABILIZE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. SPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A
SEE TEXT MESSAGE FOR FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME STRONGER STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

A FRONTAL BDRY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCTD
RW/TRW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH RAPIDLY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
SATURDAY WITH A QUICK  WARMUP EXPECTED. AN UNUSUALLY DEEP SFC/MID
LVL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR WITH THE
FROPA...THE MOST DISTINGUISHING ASPECT OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE
MUCH COOLER AIR ENTERING THE CWA. WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
TROF OCCURRING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE WRN/CTRL GT LAKES...A
VERY COOL AIR MASS WILL INVADE THE REGION. ASSOCIATED WITH THE BELOW
NORMAL SFC TEMPS WILL BE A TENDENCY TOWARDS EXTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH IN THEORY THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
MODIFIED...DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE QUITE LOW SUN/MON/TUE. INITIAL
ESTIMATE IS THAT MAX TEMPS MONDAY MAY BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO IN MANY LOCATIONS. DEEP LAYER DRYING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE
TUESDAY SO WE MAY BE ABLE TO DISSIPATE THE CLOUD COVER AT THAT TIME.
SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH ON BACK EDGE OF ANOMALOUS SFC/MID LVL LOW SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS ERN CWA WITH VFR
CEILINGS. SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS
LOWER AND PRECIP SPREADS INTO SWRN CWA. RW/TRW WILL MAKE IT INTO
MOST OF CWA BY MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH KINL MAY HAVE LIMITED AMOUNT OF
ACTIVITY. LLWS EXPECTED AT KBRD 0AND POSSIBLY KHYR BY   EARLY MORNING.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  56  73  59 /   0  70  40  20
INL  78  61  78  54 /   0  40  30  10
BRD  81  63  81  60 /  10  70  30  20
HYR  78  63  75  60 /  10  70  50  30
ASX  75  59  74  58 /   0  50  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON





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