Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 271142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
642 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Cloudy but warmer through the end of the work week as a warm front
lifts into the Upper Midwest. Low chance for precipitation across
parts of the Minnesota late tonight into Friday as a surface low
develops across the northern Plains.

Stratus spread across the Northland is expected to persist through
the rest of the work week with possibly a few breaks this afternoon
ahead of the warm front, but in general skies will be overcast.
Showers drizzle across the Arrowhead will gradually come to an end
as broad subsidence develops today in response to a mid-level
longwave ridge building into the Plains and upper Midwest today.
Behind the ridge, a fast moving subtle shortwave trough will eject
out of the Pacific Northwest into southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba
Thurs night into Friday, with a resulting low developing over the
Northern Plains. With an elevated warm front having already lifted
across the upper Mississippi river valley Thursday, the Northland
will be within the warm sector of the developing low Friday
resulting in mild temps. A low chance for precipitation across
northern Minnesota and especially the northern parts of the MN
Arrowhead depending on the position of the warm frontal zone.

Highs today in the low 40s to near 50, warmest in north-central
Minnesota. Trended this slightly cooler than previous forecasts
given the widespread cloud cover, but should skies even partially
clear out it could be milder than currently predicted. Lows tonight
in the upper 30s to mid 40s - slightly warmer than normal but well
within the expected range of temps for late October. Highs Friday
warmer in the 50s to to mid 60s - warmest south of Highway 2 in
northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. A light to breezy south
wind Friday given the deepening low to the west - gusts to 20-25mph
possible in northwest Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Canadian high pressure will build into the region Saturday in the
wake of a departing low. The cold air advection will bring clouds
and enough instability to support a small chance for light rain
along the borderland. A vort max embedded in the upper level flow
will also bring rain chances across the central portions of
Minnesota and Wisconsin Saturday. At this time the bulk of forcing
and precipitation is expected to remain to the south of the Forecast
area Saturday, mainly impacting the Twin Cities metro and southward.

The active weather pattern again repeats itself Sunday night as
another low tracks into the Dakotas, placing the forecast area in a
warm return flow into Monday. Rain returns to the forecast Monday as
the low translates across the borderland and into Ontario through


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

A return flow will keep low level moisture and widespread IFR to
MVFR ceilings across the region through much or all of the TAF
period. Conditions may improve to vfr for a breif period at KBRD
and KHYR this afternoon. However, low ceilings will quickly
redevelop through the evening. Have taken all terminals down
below 1000ft late tonight. At this time expecting winds to limit
dense fog formation overnight, but later updates may need to
adjust for lower visibilities after midnight through Friday


DLH  46  42  58  46 /  10  10  10  10
INL  48  43  54  42 /  40  10  20  20
BRD  50  45  63  46 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  47  41  62  48 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  49  40  61  48 /  10   0  10  10




LONG TERM...Graning
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