000
FXUS63 KDLH 060537
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1137 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AS RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN THIN STRATOCUMULUS ICE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS NRN MN/NW WI INTO FRIDAY..ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES. HOWEVER..ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL AMOUNT TO NO
MORE THAN A TRACE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COLD AND WIND CHILLS
LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW TEMPS DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15
RANGE AND POSSIBLY COLDER IN SOME LOCALES WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD
AS -25 TO -30 FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL OVER PARTS OF NW WI WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
AND TEMPS THE WARMEST..BUT SINCE WE ALREADY INHERITED AN ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA..FOR THE SAKE OF SIMPLICITY..WE HAVE LET THE
ADVISORY RIDE FOR THE ENTIRE DULUTH CWA THRU 9 AM FRI.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS THE
PERSISTENT SHORT-FETCHED BUT RATHER HIGHLY ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT
PLUME THE BEGINS JUST OFFSHORE OF DULUTH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH PART
OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND APOSTLE ISLANDS. THUS FAR..ONLY
VERY LIGHT SNOW AND A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN NOTED IN
AREAS NORTH OF HERBSTER TO RED CLIFF..BUT WITH THE TENDENCY FOR
GREATER LAKE EFFECT PROCESS ORGANIZATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS..ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES COULD MATERIALIZE
OVER A VERY SMALL GEOGRAPHIC AREA. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE
DLHWRF.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

THE VERY COLD WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
PERIODS OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED
PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...BRINGING
REINFORCING COLD AIR TO THE NORTHLAND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BEEN MOVING SLOW...BUT
STEADY...EASTWARD. KINL/KHIB/KDLH HAVE ALL RECENTLY SCATTERED OUT.
A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WAS MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
ITASCA/CASS COUNTIES AND WILL IMPACT KBRD IN A COUPLE HOURS. WE
CARRIED A TEMPO GROUP AT KINL/KHIB/KDLH FOR A COUPLE HOURS FOR
MVFR CEILINGS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE LOWER CEILINGS IN THE ARROWHEAD WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH LAKE INDUCED LOWER CLOUDS
REMAINING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -9   3 -13   1 /   0  10   0   0
INL  -7   2 -16  -2 /  10  10  10   0
BRD -11   3 -16   1 /   0  10   0   0
HYR -10   7 -12   5 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  -2   9  -5   7 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE