000
FXUS63 KDLH 150718 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
218 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

CLEARING IS OCCURRING FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED IN POST
FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CWA. HAVE TRIMMED POPS TOWARDS THE EAST
BASED ON LATEST SAT/OBS/88D. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE QUIET TODAY
HOWEVER A TROUBLESOME MESOSCALE NEAR SHORE CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG NORTH SHORE BETWEEN KDLH AND KBFW. THE RESULT WOULD
BE SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. EXISTING FCST HAS
LOW POPS AND WILL RESPECT THAT IDEA UNTIL MORE DEFINITIVE PROOF
EXISTS THAT THE MESOSCALE FORCING IS A HI-RES NWP ARTIFACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAILY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
ARROHEAD WITH SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AND LEECH LAKE
REGIONS. WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR IS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LOWERING
TEMPS. MODELS INDICATE THE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
GRADIENT DECREASES AS RIDGE BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COLDER TONIGHT WITH SINGLE FIGURES ABOUT ZERO NORTH OF DLH TO THE
LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TEMPS RECOVER TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S ON SATU8RDAY UNDER DRY CONDTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL DROP IN ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
S/W AND WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW ON MONDAY. THIS
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MON EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FAR NRN COUNTIES. COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND 1-2
INCHES TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A MUCH MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING IN
THE NWRN US AND MOVING INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS WRN S DAKOTA AND NEB MON NIGHT...WITH STRONG WAA OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT QUICKLY ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
CONUS LATE TUE THROUGH WED. THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS TO THE EAST/NE THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS AT THE TIME IS FOR THE LOW TO TRACK FROM SRN
SD...ACROSS IA AND EWD INTO LOWER MI. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
DURING THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW FURTHER NORTH. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCHING THE TRENDS AS
MODELS GRADUALLY COME TOGETHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST LATE WED AND THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL START OFF RATHER COLD WITH
MORNING LOWS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO. HIGHS
ON SUN WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE
ZERO. THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER BETWEEN 800-870 MB PER 00Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS
PERSISTS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW WI LATE THIS EVENING..AND
COLD ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
SUPERSATURATION W.R.T ICE WITHIN THAT LAYER AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
AFFECTING KHIB/KDLH/KHYR.  WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER BANDS OF
REFLECTIVITY ON KDLH RADAR..VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO UNDER
3 MILES FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.  WE EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST
FOR 3-5 MORE HOURS AT KDLH/KHYR AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES..BUT THERE
SHOULD BE A GRADUAL CLEARING/SCATTERING TREND WITH TIME LATE TONIGHT
AT ALL TAF SITE EXCEPT KHYR.

FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS GREAT
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE NNE WILL
BE..ESP AT KDLH.  THERE SEEMS AT LEAST A DECENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING NEAR LK SUPERIOR
UNTIL MIDDAY SATURDAY.  OTHERWISE..A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND IS
EXPECTED IN THE LATE PART OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS NEXT ARCTIC RIDGE
BUILDS SWD INTO THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  -6  20  14 /  20  10   0  50
INL  13 -15  23  15 /  10   0   0  60
BRD  24  -5  23  17 /  10   0   0  40
HYR  24 -10  22  11 /  10   0   0  30
ASX  18  -7  22  11 /  30   0   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...LE/MILLER