000
FXUS63 KDLH 282115
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LAYER OF CIRRUS ABOVE 10 KFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/SFC
FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATION. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED...ONCE TIMING IS
BETTER REFINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  20  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING