286
FXUS63 KDLH 112047
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
347 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening with
  showers and storms continuing tonight into Saturday. Heavy
  rainfall may lead to flash flooding as well.

- Areas of smoke tonight and Saturday with low chances of
  showers and storms Saturday night.

- Temperatures warm Sunday through Tuesday with better rainfall
  chances returning for Monday night into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Low pressure was located north of International Falls this
afternoon with a cold front trailing into north-central and
western Minnesota and back into the eastern Dakotas and
Nebraska. Showers and thunderstorms were located ahead of this
front across northeastern Minnesota into central Minnesota. Most
of this activity has been sub-severe with hail to the size of
dimes and some minor wind damage reported. These storms have
been heavy rainfall producers and are slow moving. This is
leading to some flash flooding concerns with PWATs over 1.5
inches across Itasca, Cass, Crow Wing and adjacent Aitkin
counties. Ahead of the cold front, CAPE is around 1000-2000 J/kg
with effective shear under 20 knots. This will keep storms from
getting too organized, but may produce some near severe hail and
wind gusts to 50 mph along with the heavy rainfall threat.
Models continue to struggle with this activity but it is
expected to push east across northeastern Minnesota through this
evening. Some additional development is possible overnight from
northeastern Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin, but this
activity is not expected to be severe. Behind the front is an
area of intense near surface smoke. This will lead to low
visibilities and very poor air quality tonight into tomorrow.

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Saturday in the
wake of the front. Any severe potential looks to remain to our
east, with only a few isolated showers and storms possible
across the Northland as the upper trough pivots through. PWATs
will around an inch or less, so heavy rainfall is not expected
to be a threat either. Highs will be in the 70s.

Temperatures warm on Sunday with southerly flow ahead of a weak
cold front. Models greatly differ in regards to this front with
the GFS being the only one to really develop activity along the
front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. If the GFS is correct,
there could be a few strong to severe storms in the area, but
thinking the drier forecast forecast is more likely at this
point. Highs Sunday will be in the 80s. Zonal flow aloft will be
in place for much of the coming week with surface low pressure
moving through the Upper Midwest for Monday night into Tuesday
night. This will bring another chance for showers and storms to
the Northland. There is a low severe chance at this point with
poor model agreement and shear looking displaced behind the
front. Confidence is low in the remainder of the week with poor
model agreement. Additional rainfall chances look likely at some
point, but timing remains in question. Temperatures do look to
cool down by midweek back to more seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions prevail across most of the region early this
afternoon with some MVFR ceilings working into northern areas.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase for later
this afternoon and tonight. Confidence on coverage on timing is
low. If a storm passes over a terminal, expected a brief period
of IFR ceilings and visibilities and perhaps gusty winds. Some
models try to bring some fog across northwest Wisconsin tonight,
but thinking these VSBY reductions are more from rain than fog.
Overall a low confidence forecast with very poor model
agreement.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move across
western Lake Superior this evening with additional activity
possible overnight. There is a low chance for a strong storm
near the head of the lake late this afternoon and evening with
gusts to 40 knots possible along with some small hail and heavy
downpours. Any additional activity overnight is not expected to
be strong or severe. Winds will be southwesterly Saturday at 5
to 15 knots and remain southwesterly Sunday at 15 to 20 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH