Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KDLH 020555

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1155 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Issued at 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Updated aviation section below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Short term concern for short term is threat for light
snow/freezing drizzle overnight.

Current surface analysis indicates scattered light snow with some
patchy freezing drizzle reported across the mn portion of the
forecast area with only light snow in NW WI. The conditions remain
basically unchanged across the region with low level moisture
trapped under an inversion as indicated on the forecast soundings.
This situation will continue though most of the overnight which
may cause the scattered light snow/patchy freezing drizzle across
most of the region. This precipitation will end by daybreak Friday

The snow showers will continue across northern iron county
overnight into Friday morning as north to NW wind continues across
the lake. Another 1 to 2 inches of snow are possible before it
ends by midday Friday as drier air moves in along with a wind

Cyclonic flow will keep clouds across the forecast area on Friday.
There may be brief breaks in the clouds on Friday but they will
fill in quickly. Temperatures will be near normal tonight and

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Surface and mid level ridging covers the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday. An upper level long wave trof pushes the ridging to
the east Saturday night, and reaches the Minnesota/Dakotas border
area by 12Z/6am Sunday. This trof will be aligned with a surface
cold front. Warm air advection/isentropic lift ahead of the
trof/front will induce some snow showers Saturday night. On Sunday,
the trof/front pushes into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin in
the afternoon. The snow showers will continue to occur along and
ahead of the front, diminishing behind the front. The trof/front
move east of the area Sunday evening, but lingered some pops for any
backwash snow showers. Dry late Sunday night and Monday morning with
brief high pressure moving nearby. A cutoff low shown by the GFS,
moved into south central Canada Monday afternoon through Wednesday.
This brought a surge of some of the coldest air for December. The
00Z ECMWF dropped the closed low from southern Manitoba into the
Dakotas during this time frame. The 12Z ECMWF was unavailable for
this forecast package and used a blend of the GFS/00Z ECMWF for
Monday afternoon through Wednesday. The GEM was a major outlier
during this time and was ignored.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Widespread MVFR ceilings and VFR visibilities as of issuance time is
expected to continue through the TAF period. Some snow showers with
MVFR visibilities possible, but their timing is uncertain and
have gone with just VCSH with lower ceilings for now.


DLH  26  30  24  29 /  10  10  10  10
INL  24  29  21  28 /  10  10  10   0
BRD  25  29  20  30 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  26  31  23  30 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  29  33  25  31 /  20  10  10  10




SHORT TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...LE is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.