Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 212111
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
411 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Storms have formed over northwest Minnesota this afternoon that we
have been watching very carefully. A severe thunderstorm watch has
been issued, and I will leave it to the reader to refer to the
specifics of that watch in the WCN. A plume of 2000J/KG plus most
unstable CAPE extends up the Red River valley, overlapping much
of western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota and South Dakota. In
addition, this area has decent shear, a weak shortwave aloft and
is underneath the right entrance region of the upper level jet. We
are looking at getting a round of severe storms for the next few
hours, mainly affecting the far western areas of the CWA along the
high cape gradient. After that have poor confidence in additional
storms, though several models bring a second round of convection
through the southwestern half of the forecast area after midnight
tonight.

Attention then turns to Saturday, when the tight upper low/vort
max currently over the Saskatchwan/Manitoba border drops southeast
cross the forecast area during the afternoon and early evening.
Expect that depending on the overnight convection we will have an
additional round of showers and thunderstorms move across the area
during the afternoon and early evening. Depending on the amount of
CAPE we can develop severe weather is a real threat, but we will
have to watch what happens overnight tonight to determine the
daytime threat for tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

The extended forecast period features a couple of chances of showers
and thunderstorms over the Northland, with temperatures forecast to
remain around seasonal averages.

Saturday night begins with continuing chances of showers and storms
from Saturday afternoon as a compact mid-level shortwave dives
across our north and eastern areas of the CWA Saturday night. There
should be some good forcing associated with this shortwave as there
is a large lobe of positive vorticity advection, along with higher
850-300 mb omega, per the Thaler QG analysis. The Storm Prediction
Center currently has the entire Northland in a Slight Risk of severe
weather for the Day 2 convective outlook. The magnitude of
instability from 00z Sunday between the synoptic models differs
somewhat, with values ranging between 300 up to 2000 J/kg between
the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC models. The expectation is that any strong to
severe convection on-going at 00z Sunday will dissipate as the sun
sets, decreasing instability rapidly. There could be some damaging
winds and large hail possible, if some strong convection continues
into this period. As the shortwave departs, there may be some
lingering showers Sunday morning as the region remains under the
cyclonic flow of the mid-level wave. Non-zero MUCAPE could provide
enough instability for a rumble of thunder, but no severe weather
expected at this time.

By Sunday afternoon, drier conditions will return to the Northland,
as sfc high pressure builds. Skies look to clear out overnight
Sunday into Monday morning, so there could be some patchy fog,
especially over areas that receive rainfall Sunday. Winds look to be
light as well, especially over the Minnesota Arrowhead and along
Lake Superior. Dry conditions will continue through the day Monday
before another area of low pressure develops over northern Manitoba
and northwest Ontario Canada, bringing a cold front boundary through
the Northland. The GFS/ECMWF/CMC models are showing some decent
agreement with the areal coverage and timing of precipitation, so
confidence is fairly high this precipitation will move through
Tuesday morning and afternoon.

Temperatures will be around seasonal averages, with highs in the 70s
across the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

VFR conditions should continue through the afternoon and evening
hours today before becoming more MVFR/IFR overnight as a mid-level
shortwave advances eastward into the region. In general, the high-
resolution guidance have backed off from scattered chances of
showers and thunderstorms, but a few strong cells currently over
northwest Minnesota/northeast North Dakota may impact the KINL TAF
terminal this afternoon. There`s some uncertainty at this point
if these cells will dive south of KINL, so put in VCTS for this
afternoon.

Chances of showers and storms, with some possibly strong to
severe, could impact all TAF terminals overnight tonight. Strong
wind gusts and large hail are possible in some of the stronger
storms. Confidence is increasing on fog development as well, given
the higher dew point temperatures and light winds. Mainly MVFR
vsby reductions to 3 to 5 SM, with some IFR reductions at KDLH,
KHIB, and KHYR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  73  57  70 /  30  40  40  20
INL  60  77  56  74 /  40  60  40  20
BRD  65  83  60  75 /  40  10  10  10
HYR  63  80  58  71 /  20  40  30  20
ASX  58  74  56  67 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JTS
AVIATION...JTS



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