Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 162357
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
557 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

A cold front will move from west to east through the Northland
tonight and early Saturday. It will be associated with an
mid/upper level trough that will move through the region and a
surface low up towards Hudson Bay. Very light snow is possible
across the Northland overnight into Saturday in advance of the
cold front because of some large-scale forcing from the upper
trough. We expect little to no accumulation. Saturday just looks
likely a partly to mostly cloudy day with brisk west-northwest
winds. There should be wind gusts to around 20 mph. Tonight`s lows
will near 10 degrees, and highs will range from near 30 degrees in
northwest WI to near 20 in north-central Minnesota.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Two rounds of accumulating snow are the main focus for the long
term this afternoon, one arriving for Sunday and the other early
Monday morning through Monday evening.

A compact, but potent, shortwave trough will move through the
Dakotas and into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. A surge of Pacific
moisture will accompany spread northward into the region ahead of
the trough. Surface low pressure will move through the northern
Rockies and into the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies by
early Sunday morning. The low will ride eastward along a warm
front through South Dakota, central Minnesota, and into central
Wisconsin. The bulk of the snow is forecast north of the low track
in an area of strong frontogenetic forcing. A wide swath of 3 to
6 inches of snow is forecast from central Minnesota east into
northern Wisconsin with this system. While intense mesoscale
banding is likely with this system given the thermodynamic
profile, the placement of the band is somewhat uncertain. The
heaviest snow will likely be confined to a smaller area than
currently forecast and a stripe of higher amounts is possible.
Snow will move into central Minnesota around sunrise and quickly
spread into northwest Wisconsin by noon. The fast-moving nature of
this system means the snow will begin to taper off in our
southwest by mid-afternoon and wrap up in the east during the
evening. There is a potential for light snow showers or flurries
to linger through Sunday night into early Monday morning as the
next system begins to affect the Northland.

Another storm system is forecast to move through the Mississippi
Valley Monday and Tuesday. As with the previous few iterations of
the forecast, considerable uncertainty remains with the track and
intensity of this storm, and its affects on the Northland.
Thunderstorms are expected along the cool front from the middle
Mississippi Valley southward Monday morning through the evening.
The latent heat release from those storms should affect the
northward transport of moisture into the Northland and pull the
strongest height falls farther south. This afternoon, it appears
portions of central Minnesota east through the I-35 corridor and
into northwest Wisconsin have the best chance of snow Monday into
Monday night. There is a potential for more than 6 inches of snow
with this system, however the convection and other details limit
confidence in the placement and timing of that snow. There`s a
chance the axis of heaviest snow could remain south of the
Northland.

Lake effect snow showers will continue through much of the
upcoming week along the south shore. Temperatures will be near
normal for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

VFR conditions to continue for much of the 00z TAF period. A weak
cold front will move through the area after 06z, bringing a chance
of light snow to most of the terminals. Ahead of the trough,
strong south-southwest winds will develop, producing low level
wind shear at the terminals for several hours. The feature does
not have much moisture and is not very strong, so have only
included tempo groups for KINL, KHIB, KDLH for MVFR ceilings and
visbilities for a 3-4 hour period, beginning around 07z, ending by
12z. Have only put VCSH for KBRD and KHYR. West winds to increase
behind the ending of the snow, after 19z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  11  27   5  20 /  40  20  10  80
INL  10  20  -2  14 /  20  10  10  40
BRD  13  28   7  23 /  20  10  30  80
HYR   9  29   5  28 /  30  40   0  70
ASX  12  31   8  25 /  20  30  10  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...LE



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