Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 161957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
257 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Strong warm air advection continued this afternoon with clouds
thickening and area radars showing increasing echoes over western
and portions of northern Minnesota. KINL 12Z sounding showed plenty
of dry air present and forecast soundings showed this continuing
into early this afternoon before moistening. There could be some
light showers late this afternoon and early evening over portions
of northern Minnesota, but chances will ramp overnight as
continued warm air and moisture advection combine with a shortwave
trough. The instability will increase overnight leading to
thunderstorms as well. A few strong storms will be possible,
mainly over northwest Wisconsin and our adjacent Minnesota
counties overnight. Hail will be the main threat.

As the best forcing diminishes and moves east Monday morning, shower
and storm coverage will be at a minimum. However, another
shortwave will approach the area Monday leading to a deepening low
pressure system and pushing a warm front back to the north. The
models offer different solutions on the track of the surface low
Monday into Monday night as well as how far north the warm front
will get. Overall consensus is the surface low will be along the
southeast Minnesota/southwest Wisconsin border by early Monday
evening with it lifting toward the central portion of the Upper
Peninsula by 06Z Tuesday. The ECMWF is fastest and the NAM
deepest. The SREF and GFS ensemble generally support the GFS.
Overall, the differences have little impact in the chance for
showers/storms and their strength through early Monday evening as
all the models keep the warm front south of our northern Wisconsin
zones through 00Z Tuesday.

There should be a decent amount of instability that develops early
Monday evening given the strong low level warm air advection and
strong FGEN forcing over much of northwest Wisconsin. We increase
the chance for showers and storms through the afternoon/early

Lows tonight will range from the lower to mid forties over the
Arrowhead of Minnesota to the lower to mid fifties from the Brainerd
Lakes into northwest Wisconsin. Highs Monday will be in the

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

An area of low pressure will lift through the western and northern
Great Lakes Monday night, likely bringing rain and some thunder to
parts of the Northland overnight. The models take the low through
central or northern Wisconsin, and suggest the best chances of rain
will be for areas just north of the low, north of the warm front and
cold front. There could be elevated thunderstorms across parts of
northwest Wisconsin because of a band of elevated instability along
and near a band of low to mid-level frontogenesis.

There could be some strong to severe storms across northwest
Wisconsin due to ample deep-layer winds shear, even if the
instability is relatively weak. The NAM, having a low track farther
north than the GFS, suggest a much better chance of severe weather
for the southeast forecast area than the GFS. Hail and brief heavy
rain will be the main threats.

Cooler air will filter into the Northland during the middle of the
week, with highs bottoming out to near normal, in the middle to
upper 40s, on Thursday. There could be some weak waves in the quasi-
zonal flow aloft, possibly bringing light rain and periods of non-
accumulating light snow through the middle of the week. A bit warmer
weather could return late this week, with highs in the low 50s
likely on Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

There was VFR conditions, scattered high clouds, and light east to
east-southeast winds across the Northland as of early this
afternoon. Expect increasing high clouds this afternoon into this
evening as low pressure approaches from the west.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight when an
occluded/warm front lifts into the region from the west and
southwest. Also, a strong low-level jet will develop, about 40 to
50 knots, bringing a period of substantial low-level wind shear.

There will be lowering ceilings, and probably visibility too, in
the wake of the passing front and showers. Expect a transition
from VFR to IFR/LIFR conditions early Monday morning. High clouds
Wednesday morning will delay how quickly the low ceilings can lift
or move out of the area amids the light westerly flow Monday
morning. May need to lower visibility for KDLH because fog is
possible from the east flow, with the most likely time for 1/4 or
1/2 mile visibility being some time between 7 am and 9 am.


DLH  47  60  47  59 /  90  40  70  10
INL  46  60  44  56 /  80  10  10  10
BRD  52  63  46  60 /  70  40  70  20
HYR  55  67  49  62 /  80  40  80  10
ASX  50  62  49  62 /  80  30  70  10


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for LSZ140>146.



LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.