Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 022004
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
304 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REST OF OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ZONES AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...MLCAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL PRESENT. THERE COULD
STILL BE A STRONG STORM MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD
LINE THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES SOUTH AND MOISTURE
INCREASES THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THAT FORM OVER THE BORDER
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS UNDER THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S FAR NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SUMMARY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MIGHT REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH...WILL HELP DEVELOP
SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THE ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTY AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN. LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY
AND A BIT SUNNIER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOWER 70S. CUT BACK ON PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE DRIER 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS.

LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PCPN
CHANCES. THE GFS IS INDICATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
NORTHLAND DRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NEAR THE ND/MN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NW FORECAST AREA. KEPT
THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD
LIKELY HELP PREVENT MUCH FROM DEVELOPING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS COMPLETELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE LOW CHANCES ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WAVE
THAT WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME...BUT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND AT AN EARLIER TIME. THE LATEST MODELS PRIMARILY
INDICATE THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA...OR EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...ON WEDNESDAY. NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE SOONER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR THE KDLH/KBRD/KHYR AREAS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS COOL AIR GRADUALLY POURS OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF
THIS EVENING AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS EVEN COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. ADDED
MVFR CEILINGS TO THE KINL FORECAST...AND MIGHT NEED TO ALSO
INCLUDE MVFR FOR KHIB. THERE WILL BE INCREASING NW WINDS LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SCT/BKN
CUMULUS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT TO DEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  71  51  70 /  10  20  10  10
INL  49  65  45  67 /  10  20   0  10
BRD  50  76  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  72  48  70 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  52  73  52  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI


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