Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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922
FXUS63 KDLH 010549
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1149 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

There doesn`t look to be much change in the overall patter except
that the stacked low has moved further east into WI today. the
current forecast models showing the low finally lowly pulling off
to the northeast into Ontario by morning. However, the northland
will still feel its affects as the cyclonic flow will continue to
pivot shortwaves across the region. A fairly strong upper level
vorticity maxima is forecast to spin across the Northland Thursday
and keep clouds and light precipitation over the region. Another
shot of cold air advection will come on Thursday afternoon and
therefore, along with the the s/wv moving through the upper low,
have put in small chances of precipitation types. Precipitation
types will be quite a mixture. Late this afternoon most areas
in Minnesota were reporting snow, however, a band of warmer mid
level temperatures kept northshore and the Twin Ports area
through Hinckley in light rain and drizzle. Mostly rain was
falling in northern WI. Expect a changeover to snow again with some
forecast mid level moisture returning early this evening. There
could be some periods of freezing drizzle very late tonight and
tomorrow morning when some mid level drying occurs and the clouds
lose their ice crystals. The precipitation will be patchy and very
light, and will be dependent on how long the surface temperatures
remain below freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

The remnants of the surface low that had been plaguing the forecast
area for the last several days, will continue to affect the south
shore of Lake Superior Thursday night and Friday. A NNW wind and
cold air moving over the warm waters will lead to some lake effect
snow through Friday, but the potential is diminishing with time. The
NNW wind subsides by Friday afternoon and high pressure builds into
the region, ending the lake effect snow. Snow amounts will be
affected by the warmer air immediately near the lake. The high
pressure results in quiet weather elsewhere Thursday night and
Friday. Even though the high pressure remains over the area through
Saturday, upper level impulses will drift over the international
border area into northwest Wisconsin. This leads to some pops over
these areas. The atmosphere is cold enough so the precipitation will
be all snow. Amounts will be light. A negatively tilted long wave
upper trof will affect the region Saturday night through Sunday
evening. As this trof digs across the area, light snow will develop
and impact the region. Snow amounts are in question due to the
amount of cold air for this trof to tap into. Surface temps may be
warm enough Saturday that a rain/snow mix is possible, mainly south
of U.S. Highway 2. A brief break in the precipitation comes late
Sunday night and Monday morning as high pressure drifts nearby. Big
model differences reveal themselves Monday afternoon through Tuesday
with the next system due to affect the forecast area. Used a model
blend to account for these differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

The low pressure system that has impacted the Northland TAF sites
over the past many periods will gradually start to lose its grip
on the Northland over the next day or so. Some snow showers will
continue off and on overnight, and into Thursday, but the trend
will be to taper off with time. Sky cover will be highly variable
with some VFR mixed in with MVFR/IFR. We should see mainly MVFR on
Thursday during the day, along with some VFR. There could be a bit
of patchy freezing drizzle late in the night, especially at KINL
and KHIB, but it is expected to be limited in duration and amount.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  31  25  31 /  60  20  10  10
INL  27  30  23  30 /  50  20  10  10
BRD  30  34  25  30 /  60  20  10  10
HYR  31  34  25  32 /  70  20  10  10
ASX  32  35  27  34 /  80  50  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP



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