Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 152014
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
314 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The short term forecast period is looking pretty dry and quiet. For
the rest of this afternoon and evening, a fairly weak mid-level
shortwave trough will dive southeastward through the region. Deep
lift with this wave is looking quite weak, per the Thaler QG 850-300
mb layer omega. The latest convective-allowing models, such as the
HRRR, RAP, and WRF NMM, are progging light rain showers translating
through the southwest one-third of our forecast area. Otherwise,
mostly cloudy skies will accompany the shortwave, which should move
out of the Northland by late tonight. Skies will then clear once the
wave departs, along with weakening winds, so temperatures will be a
bit cooler overall compared to this morning. Overnight lows will
range from the middle 20s to the lower 30s.

Dry conditions and mostly sunny skies will then settle into the
region to start the work week as high pressure builds across the
southern Great Plains states, along with mid-level ridging. Breezy
southwesterly winds will develop Monday as stronger 850 mb level
winds move in, with magnitudes of 30 to 40 kts. Boundary layer
mixing should help to bring these winds to the sfc, with gusts
between 20 to 25 kts Monday afternoon, especially from the Brainerd
Lakes north to International Falls. The southwesterly flow will also
bring in warmer temperatures, with highs ranging from the middle 50s
east to the lower 60s west.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Not much change in the long term forecast this afternoon. Quasi-
zonal flow will be the main feature for this week through Friday
night, with several shortwave troughs moving eastward through the
Canadian Prairies. The passage of the troughs will be marked by
an increase in cloud cover and a cool front will migrate across
Northland Tuesday night and Wednesday. The main concern during the
period will be relative humidity and winds later this week.
Minimum RH values in upper 20s to low 30s are expected for many
locales. Afternoon winds are forecast in the 10 to 15 mph range.
These factors will lead to a slight increase in fire danger.

The upper-level pattern will shift Friday and Saturday as a longwave
trough moves across the western CONUS and into the Plains on
Saturday. Southerly return flow will develop on Friday and bring
additional moisture into the region. A few showers are possible late
Friday night and Saturday as the trough moves into Minnesota. The
best chance of precipitation, however, will be Saturday evening into
Sunday over northwest Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A compact and fast-moving shortwave trough will pass through the
Northland this afternoon and this evening. Morning ceilings will
continue to erode early this afternoon as the mixed layer depth
increases. Middle and upper level clouds will accompany the trough
and a few sprinkles are possible at BRD. Skies will clear in the
wake of the trough tonight. Some terminals will see fog
developing, mainly those sites which both received rainfall last
night and experience calm winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  56  41  63 /  10   0   0   0
INL  27  59  37  64 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  32  60  39  66 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  31  58  39  65 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  33  58  42  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck



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