Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 261811 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1211 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.




UPDATE ISSUED AT 1033 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

AT 345 AM...TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO FALL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MORNING WAS 31 BELOW ZERO AT
CRANE LAKE AND THE RAWS STATION 5 MILES EAST OF SEAGULL LAKE. IN
OUR NW WI AREA...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR WAS 23 BELOW ZERO
AT THE WIDOT OBSERVATION SITE NEAR FIFIELD. IT WAS 30 BELOW JUST
EAST OF OUR CWA NEAR WAKEFIELD MI. SKIES WERE GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND THE GOGEBIC RANGE...BUT PROBABLY JUST A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. HAVE PULLED BACK A BIT ON
SKY COVER GRIDS...BUT SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
BELOW ZERO. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY START TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS TO FAVOR
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM OVER THE POLAR JET STREAM. FOR THE
NORTHLAND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS DISTURBANCES MOVING UP
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...AND THE STEADY STREAM OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL RETURN MID-WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY...WARMER AND BREEZY AT TIMES...BUT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS
DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BUT HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH NORMAL HIGHS
/UPPER 20S/ ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY
WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA TO APPROACHING
THE FREEZING MARK. GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WHEN A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE BEST FORCING IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AS A SFC TROUGH/FRONT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A LARGE SPREAD ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR HOW
THIS PATTERN WILL DEVELOP...AND OVERALL HAVE BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT AGAIN GUIDANCE IS
NOT CONSISTENT ACROSS MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN...SO HAVE BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE
THAT FOLLOWING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...PROBABLY
REACHING AS COLD AS 10-20 BELOW ZERO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THERE WERE LIGHT NW WINDS AND WIDESPREAD CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MUCH
OF NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC CIGS BECAUSE OF NORTHERLY FLOW
ORIGINATING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
MORE WNW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SO NW WISCONSIN
WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING. THE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -11  14  -2  21 /   0   0   0  10
INL -20  14  -7  21 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -13  14  -3  22 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -17  15  -6  20 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  -9  17   0  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





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