Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 162006
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN MN AT 19Z AND WAS
LOCATED FROM LUTSEN TO ELY TO NEAR COOK. NO RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT...JUST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS S OF THE FRONT HAD
WARMED INTO THE 60S...TO NEAR 70 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO AITKIN
AREA. N OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE
FRONT ADVANCES TO NEAR THE TWIN PORTS TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EDGE
OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE ARROWHEAD
LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROF CONTINUES ON ITS WAY SEWD OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HAVE
POPS IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY NOON. MAY
SEE A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT
EXITS IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A NE
WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS HIGH ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER MAX TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WELL INLAND...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX VALLEY TO THE
CHEQUAMEGON NATIONAL FOREST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOW
40S AND 30S. THE COLDEST AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD
DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AND CLEARER SKIES. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN NW
WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO
THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN THE 50S.

THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS WET AND STORMY. A SURFACE LOW
STRADDLING THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE CANADA AND ITS
COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
ABOUT 40 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD CLIMB TO AS MUCH AS
1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...WHICH IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER
THAN NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY. THE SURGE
IN HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF ANY PCPN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRONG WARM FLOW ALOFT
COULD CAUSE TOO MUCH CAPPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TO
RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN.

THE STORMIEST PERIOD COULD BE FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE FRIDAY NIGHT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DUE TO SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STRONG COLD
NW FLOW COULD RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE FOR KINL. A COLD FRONT IN NW
ONTARIO AND MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF
LOWER MVFR CIGS THAT AFFECT THE KINL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET THIS FAR OUT TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

ALSO...THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FOG TONIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND
VERY LIGHT WIND IN SOME AREAS. WE MIGHT NEED TO ADD MIST/FOG AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

THE SW TO W WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  62  40  56 /   0  10   0   0
INL  42  55  37  62 /  20  30   0   0
BRD  44  68  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  42  66  39  62 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  46  59  37  59 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ146-
     147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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