Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
FXUS63 KLSX 262307
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
607 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014
A fairly well-defined convergence zone extends along an axis from
Champaign through St. Louis towards Springfield this afternoon
associated with an old convective boundary. SBCAPE is over 4000
j/kg with little CIN along this corridor, and scattered storms
were noted along portions of the boundary. Short range HRRR and
RAP guidance suggests some of this activity may linger past sunset
and thus have included some low pops within the region. Otherwise the
other threat of showers and thunderstorms tonight will shift
northward along and north of the real east-west frontal boundary
which will be drapped across northern KS and northern MO into
central IL, mainly late tonight.
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014
The east-west frontal boundary will gradually sink southward
throughout the day Wednesday settling into southern MO and
southern IL by early evening. Very unstable conditions due to
daytime heating and high dew points will persist and maintain a
threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms will the front, and
just to its north. Present indications are that overall the
atmosphere will be slightly cooler in the low-mid levels. This
cooling along with the front and attendant clouds/precipitation
are expected to diminish the magnitude of the recent heat. However
despite slightly cooler temperatures, the pooling of surface dew
points in the 70s will continue to produce afternoon heat index
values of 100-105 degrees along and south of a Columbia to
Litchfield line. I have extended the heat advisories and warnings
in this region, while the excessive heat appears to be over across
northern MO and central IL where cooler conditions have also been
The east-west front is expected to retreat back northward on
Thursday as an upper trof migrates out of the Rockies and the
associated surface low lifts northeastward. The highest pops will
remain along and north of the retreating boundary, primarily
northern sections of the CWA Thursday-Thursday night. Heat is a tough
call on Thursday and the current forecast calls for highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. There could potentially be some lingering
pockets of afternoon HI values of 100+ but there is too much
uncertainty to extend any heat headlines to this time period.
The heat should definitely come to an end by the weekend. The models
move the upper trof from the Plains on Friday into and through the
MS Valley by late Sunday. A good chance of showers and thunderstorms
will accompany this trof and the attendant frontal system, with
cooler temperatures closer to normal for this time of year.
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014
Scattered thunderstorms in the St Louis metro area will impact
STL and possibly also SUS and CPS until 01Z or 02Z this evening.
These storms should dissipate later this evening due to the loss
of daytime heating as well as much of the cloudiness. A cold front was
across northern MO, just south of UIN early this evening. This front
will sag slowly southward tonight and Wednesday with scattered
convection possible along and just north of this front. Latest
HRRR model run keeps UIN dry through 09z Wednesday, but there may
be at least isolated showers/storms in the UIN area late tonight
into Wednesday morning. Due to uncertainty in timing and coverage
may keep the UIN taf dry for now. With light surface winds, a
clearing sky, and high surface dew points there will likely be
some fog late tonight/early Wednesday morning mainly in SUS and
CPS. The light surface wind will become n-nely late Wednesday
morning and afternoon after fropa.
Specifics for KSTL: Will need to include at least VCTS in the STL
taf until 01Z this evening. Thunderstorms along with cloud cover
should dissipate later this evening. Should have scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds late Wednesday morning and afternoon as the
atmosphere becomes very unstable along the weakening cold front
which will sag southward through central MO. Will likely be
isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, but may
leave out of the STL taf for now. The surface wind will become
light later this evening, then become nely Wednesday afternoon as
the front sags south of STL.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Wednesday FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT Wednesday FOR Jefferson MO-
Lincoln MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Pike MO.
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Monroe MO-Ralls MO.
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT Wednesday FOR Bond IL-
Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Pike IL.