Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KLSX 301953
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
253 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WEAK SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOD TO WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHAT TSRA DO
DEVELOP SHUD DISSIPATE THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CLOUDS SHUD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WELL. WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
AND A CLEAR SKY...ANTICIPATE FG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT FOR AREAS
ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHERE THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THRU THE NIGHT AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NWD LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FG ACROSS CNTL
MO WHERE MORE BODIES OF WATER EXIST AND SHUD BE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLY
AND HELP PROMOTE MIXING LIMITING ANY DEVELOPMENT. WHATEVER FG DOES
DEVELOP...EXPECT IT TO LINGER INTO MON MORNING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AS THE SFC BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD OUT OF THE REGION.

TILLY

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

KEPT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY
TOMORROW.  IN ADDITION THE GFS/NAM ARE BOTH SHOWING LESS DEEP
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR AXIS EACH DAY WHICH
LOWERS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  IT WILL BE A WARM PERIOD WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 GIVEN FORECAST DEEP MIXING INTO THE 850-800MB LAYER
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C.

(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND PROMISES TO BE A DRY AS THE
MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  SURFACE HIGH WILL
STILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES STAYING AROUND +20C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ISOD TO WIDELY SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVE. BEST CHANCES ARE S OF STL/SUS/CPS AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP TAFS DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT AND REDEVELOPMENT OF FG AT UIN AND SOME LIGHT FG AT COU
BEFORE THE SFC BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD. WINDS WILL BECOME SLY MON
MORNING WITH SCT CU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  90  76  92 /  20  10  10  10
QUINCY          67  88  69  90 /  10  10   5  10
COLUMBIA        67  89  69  91 /  10  10   5  10
JEFFERSON CITY  67  89  70  91 /  20  10   5  10
SALEM           68  87  69  90 /  20  10  10  10
FARMINGTON      67  86  68  89 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.