Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 030458
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
CAN BE EXPECTED.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BY
SUNDAY.

THEN NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS
NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEEING MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR LOWERING CEILINGS
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS SHOULD DROP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO
BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. DON`T EXPECT THE
RAIN TO GET HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE AND SCATTER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

EXPECT MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE TERMINAL
SOMETIME BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ON
TIMING, BUT MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE CEILINGS
FALLING TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT BY 10-11Z. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. DON`T
EXPECT THE RAIN TO GET HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS IF
ONE OF THESE SHOWERS MOVES OVER LAMBERT. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE AND
SCATTER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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