Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 220510

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1110 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 240 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Cold front to exit forecast area late this afternoon with surface
ridge building in and gusty winds diminishing by 03z Wednesday.
Decent CAA behind front, so will see falling temps late this
afternoon as well as clearing skies. By Wednesday morning, it will
be quite chilly with lows will be in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Despite weak upper level shortwave undercutting surface ridge, skies
will remain mostly sunny with highs only in the upper 30s to mid 40s.


.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A dry weather pattern will prevail across the region through the
forecast period with temperature swings as a number of dry fronts
pass through the area.

Models are in good agreement thru the period. While there are some
differences late in the forecast period, those differences have a
minimal impact on the CWA attm. An upper level ridge remains
anchored in place just off the southeastern U.S. coast thru most of
the forecast period. This ridge helps to keep the CWA under NW flow,
hence the numerous fronts that are expected to push thru the area.

With swly flow ahead of an approaching front on Fri, have trended
twd the warmer guidance. Given the current timing of the sfc ridge
Sat night into Sun morning, have trended cooler with light winds and
a clear sky expected. Will need to continue to monitor any timing
changes of fropa and sfc ridge as these will have a large impact on
temps for any given day or night.

Mdls are hinting at a chance for precip next Tues night. Have kept
PoPs low for now however as expect the timing of this front to speed
up slightly and any precip associated with the front to develop
south/southeast of the CWA.



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mainly
light winds are expected as high pressure moves into the area.


Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period with light





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