Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 310454

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1154 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Issued at 1005 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms over eastern MO and southwest
IL has decreased in areal extent over the past hour as the
atmosphere has become more stable. Have backed off to just a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms the rest of the night.
Skies will be mostly cloudy because of the leftover convective
debris. Going lows still look good.



.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Getting isolated showers/storms this afternoon across parts of the
forecast area with diurnal heating and instability.  More
significant is the convection across southwest MO associated with an
MCV.  This convection will likely move into parts of central and
southeast MO late this afternoon and early this evening.  A few
storms may be strong to severe in central MO late this afternoon and
early this evening.  Although the convection should weaken in
intensity later this evening as the atmosphere stabilizes with
nocturnal cooling, some of this activity may continue to push
northeastward into much of our forecast area overnight.  Low
temperatures should be a little warmer than the previous night due
to increased cloud cover and a return to low level southerly winds.


.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Storm chances will be on the increase Tuesday as cold front moves
into northwestern MO by midday. Highs on Tuesday hard to pin down as
it will depend on cloud cover and precipitation. For now, they will
be a bit above normal in the low to mid 80s. Will see several rounds
of storms with best chances Tuesday night and Wednesday as front
moves through forecast area. Some decent instability and lift along
boundary, but it will be marginal especially over southeast MO and
southwestern IL. So SPC has a marginal risk over southeast half of
forecast area on Wednesday.

Rain to taper off on Thursday with drier weather through Friday as
weak ridging builds in. However, next system to approach region for
the weekend but timing hard to pin down, so kept slight chance pops
for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be near normal through
the extended.



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected through midday Tuesday
when additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
into the area. Have added VCTS to all of the terminals tomorrow
afternoon into early Tuesday evening. Any storms will have the
potential to produce heavy downpours with MVFR and possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected at the
terminal through early Tuesday afternoon when scattered storms
will develop over the area. Any storms will have the potential to
produce heavy downpours with MVFR and possible IFR ceilings and





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