Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 251735
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1235 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

The departing short wave trof will result in large scale
subsidence across the entire region today, with high pressure in
control at the surface. Winds will be somewhat gusty across the
north today as 15-25 knot flow remains in place at 925 mb across
northeast Minnesota. Full sun and fairly deep mixing should allow
some mixing of this momentum to the surface until winds and
gradient diminish mid to late afternoon.

The ridge axis will move off to the south tonight and Tuesday,
allowing low level westerly flow to develop in the 925-850 mb
layer. This will once again result in an increasing warm/moist
advection pattern by 06z tonight, and sufficient
moisture/instability/lift should be present by the midnight to 3
am time frame to result in showers and thunderstorms slowly
developing along the nose of the 925-850 mb thermal ridge that
will slowly build into northwest Minnesota tonight on the
northwest periphery of the departing ridge axis. We have
increased PoPs and spread at least low chances farther east than
the previous forecast to account for this. Chances for
showers/storms should then persist through most of the day on
Tuesday with the same general large scale support remaining in
place.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

The quasi-zonal flow that has been advertised the past few days
continues to be in play Tuesday night and Wednesday. Pieces of
energy are still expected to bring showers and storms, but mainly
over the southern half of the forecast area compared to previous
forecasts. Surface high pressure over Ontario is pushing southward
and with the drier air beginning to prevail and have adjusted pops
accordingly. The quasi-zonal flow breaks down Wednesday night as a
deeper long wave trof moves over the Upper Midwest. However, the
Ontario high pressure pushes farther south through the area and have
pops over southern Pine county into adjacent northwest Wisconsin.
The long wave trof remains over the Upper Midwest Thursday, but is
more baggy with less energy. Another piece of energy moves along the
North Dakota/Canada border area by afternoon. A blend of models has
pops over all but the Arrowhead into St. Louis county. Thermodynamic
profiles suggest a thunder free day, except along the southern
periphery of forecast area and have a mention of thunder. This baggy
trofiness continues through Saturday. Pieces of energy will drift
through the southern portion of the trof, while the Ontario high
keeps the same area dry and have aligned pops the same way through
Saturday. The high pressure finally overtakes the rest of the
forecast area Saturday night and Sunday and have a dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. A
chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across far northern
Minnesota overnight, but coverage is expected to fairly spotty so
just went with VCSH in the relevant locations for now. Otherwise
some increasing mid-level (VFR) clouds tonight into tomorrow with
light northwest winds becoming near-calm overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  64  82  62 /   0  30  40  40
INL  81  61  81  57 /   0  30  30  10
BRD  84  64  81  63 /   0  20  40  40
HYR  82  62  83  61 /   0  10  40  40
ASX  82  63  84  63 /   0  20  40  40

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...JJM



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