000
FXUS63 KDLH 290522 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1122 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS MORE WIDESPREAD
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE STARTED TO COME IN AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 350 PM...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
A CHECK ACROSS THE CWA INDICATES ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS QUITE
LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ONLY REPORT BEING IN THE
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NW WI...NAMELY...WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES.
DEFINITELY THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO NEED AN ADVISORY FOR
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA IF THE EXPECTED FZDZ BECOMES EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. WILL START WITH THIS AREA AS IT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST
LIFT AND HAS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDING PROFILES...BUT KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON IT OVERNIGHT. ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY...AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES DEVELOP IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME. COULD SEE SOME
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED
AREAS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH APPROACHING
S/W TROF BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEAGER MOISTURE
WITH WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD A BROAD SWATH OF A DUSTING
UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BEYOND SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW...WITH THE GREATER
THREAT OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO TO MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  25  -3  16 /  40  10   0  10
INL  13  15 -11  15 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  20  22   4  22 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  27  28  -3  18 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  28  29   2  17 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...BJT