Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 190550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1250 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

UPDATE Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Please see the 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 852 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Updated to adjust clouds and temps based on current obs. Also,
dropped small craft advisory due to decreased winds across the
lake. Freeze and frost advisories still look on track. rest of
fcst unchanged.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Clearing skies tonight as high pressure builds in. Winds become
near calm which will result in a widespread frost/freeze across
the region. (We begin our official frost/freeze program earlier
this week in coordination with neighboring offices.) Lows ranging
from the upper 20s to low 30s, with some inland locations possibly
falling to the mid 20s.

Friday will be mostly sunny but remaining below normal in the wake
of the low. Increasing clouds from south to north in the
afternoon, and in areas which did not receive much rainfall over
the past few days (north and west of the Iron Range) relative
humidity values could drop to around 20 to 25 percent. Light east
winds, though some gusty winds possible at the head of the lake
with a few gusts to around 20 to 25 mph in the Twin Ports. Highs
Mid 50s to low 60s, but struggling to warm up our of the upper 40s
along Lake Superior due to the east winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The Northland`s cool and wet pattern will continue through the
weekend. A semi-vertically stacked area of low pressure in the
Central Plains will lift north into the Minnesota and Wisconsin
region by Saturday night. It will bring a surge of moisture into the
Northland from the south, with widespread synoptic lift from the
approaching wave bringing light to moderate rainfall to the Northland
Saturday into early Sunday. Much of the Northland has 0.25" to 0.75"
of rainfall in the latest forecast. The rain may have some initial
difficulty spreading into the Northland Friday night and Saturday
because it may take some time to overcome the dry easterly flow.
Virga will be more likely at first. Also, the Canadian is about 6 to
12 hours at bringing the rain through the Northland compared to the
GFS and ECMWF. The chances of thunder look very low, so left it out
of the forecast at this point. Gusty east-northeast flow from Lake
Superior, combined with the cloud cover, will make for a pretty cool
day, with temperatures in the 40s and low 50s. The winds could gust
as high as 30 mph in the Twin Ports area.

The rain might linger into Sunday as the low lifts into Canada.
Breezy and cool northwest flow will develop, the temperatures will
once again by in the 40s and low 50s.

The rotating low in Canada will swing a trough through the Northland
early next week, extending the cool northerly flow and bringing
additional chances of light showers. Temperatures might reach the
upper 50s and lower 60s Monday and Tuesday. High pressure might
bring a bit warmer and drier weather for Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Main concern overnight is the potential for fog at HYR. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. High pressure will
build into Ontario tonight, while a trough lifts across the Mid
Mississippi River Valley. Ahead of the trough, a cirrus shield
will spread in from south to north. These high clouds may inhibit
further fog formation at HYR. However, have opted to keep fog at
HYR as overcast skies are still across southern Minnesota.

Expect gusty winds to develop mid to late Friday morning at
BRD/DLH/HYR as the pressure gradient tightens due to the exiting
high and low incoming from the Central Plains. Winds will decouple
during the evening bringing an end to the gusty conditions. Leaned
on the latest NAM/RAP and GFS for the latest TAF set.


DLH  32  50  35  44 /   0   0  10  80
INL  30  60  37  54 /   0   0   0  50
BRD  34  54  39  48 /   0  10  20  80
HYR  31  55  39  52 /   0  10  20  90
ASX  30  49  35  47 /   0   0  10  80


WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004-

MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-018-

     Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ020-021-025-



LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...WL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.