Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 272013
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A SFC TROF WAS DROPPING THROUGH THE FA AT 19Z. SHOWERS CONTINUED TO
DOT THE LANDSCAPE AS VORT MAXES ROTATE THROUGH THE FA. LAST OF THE
VORT MAXES HAS REACHED THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL PASS
THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER GENERATED
FROM THIS ENERGY AND CAA WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN
CLEARING IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE N AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES WILL ALSO AID IN THE CLEARING.

THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THE SKY WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. KEPT OUT THE
MENTION OF FOG AS MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING A LAYER OF MOISTURE
AROUND 5K FT...ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION FOG...NOR GENERATE CLOUD COVER.

ON MONDAY...THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LEAVES A
NLY FLOW OVER THE FA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
MN ARROWHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE AND HAVE AN ISOLD THUNDER MENTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. REST
OF THE FA SHOULD BE DRY DUE TO A MID LEVEL INVERSION OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NE U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND WRN HIGH PLAINS. A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK N-S FROM MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEK AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND WEAK
ISOLATED STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL APPEARS TO
BE ON TUE NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK. THE LATEST 12Z GFS IS THE LEAST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM GENERATE LIGHT/MDT
RAINFALL ALMOST EVERY DAY AROUND 00Z. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEK AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF FOG REMAINING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING RAIN SHOWERS EVENTUALLY
TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM N TO S ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. N/NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 20
KT WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE NNW TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN TO AROUND 10 KT FROM THE NW LATE MON MORNING. MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORNING FOG AROUND HYR...WHERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AROUND HYR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  76  55  77 /  10  10  10  30
INL  51  76  51  77 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  54  76  54  78 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  49  75  52  77 /  10  10  10  40
ASX  50  76  53  77 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.