Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 260250 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
950 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SEAONALLY ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW ONTARIO
CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING..BUT A
RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR LINGERS BENEATH THE
POST FRONTAL INVERSION ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS LOW..AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING. THUS..AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA..ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD
BE SOME TENDENCY TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
NEAR MAX HEATING/MIXING TIME APPEARED TO BE AT LEAST PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT/COVERAGE OF THE CLOUDS OVER FAR
NORTHERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON..ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE SHOWERS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REFORM OVERNIGHT.

WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY DECENT OVER NE MN..THE
BEST PRESSURE RISES HAVE TRANSLATED INTO ONTARIO AS OF 9 PM.
THUS..WE EXPECT A CONTINUED VERY SLOW DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME 10-20 KT WINDS OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR..BUT
EVEN THERE..WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.

OVERALL..THE GOING FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK..AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO NUDGE THE VARIOUS GRID
ELEMENTS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE MOST
NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND TO DELAY THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING
OVERNIGHT BY A FEW HOURS. UPDATES TO ALL GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT
PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE STRONG SURFACE
LOW NOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO.  THE MAIN COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD DECK MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST
CWA...ASSOCIATED WITH A SWITCH TO STRONGER WEST WINDS...DRIER
DEWPOINTS AND THE CLOUD DECK.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE
CLOUD COVER TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA...AND LINGER
MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST AGAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD DESPITE
THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...AND HAVE MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW 50S SOUTHEAST.  TUESDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY.  GOOD MIXING WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70...AND HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN INTO
THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...FOR A COOL AND REFRESHING DAY AFTER THE
RECENT MUGGINESS.  TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TO ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  CURRENTLY HAVE MIN TEMPS DOWN AROUND 40
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND MID AND UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.  WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE COLD SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT COMBINES WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO GIVE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
DEEP LAYER SATURATION OR LIFT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME POPS OVER SRN/SERN
CWA THUR/EARLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK MID LVL TROF ADVECTS EAST. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS BASED ON THE PROSPECT OF SOME MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTH FROM A SRN BRANCH SYSTEM OVER THE CTRL PLAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH SO WE MAY BE ABLE TO TREND TOWARDS DRIER WX
WITH THE NEXT FEW MDL CYCLES. GFS APPEARS TO PLAY OUTLIER ROLE IN
TAKING A VERY LARGE PRECIP AREA INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY. THIS IS A
LARGE SHIFT NORTH COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE AND HAVE NOT
ACCEPTED THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. MDL CONSENSUS IS THAT A FRONT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS AND RW/TRW INTO THE NORTHLAND. A
SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM SETTING UP AN EASTERLY BDRY LYR FLOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MDLS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS THAT A
DEVELOPING NRN PLAINS SFC LOW/FRONTAL BDRY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
BY EARLY MONDAY. POPS ARE INCREASED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DUE TO
THIS SYSTEM. BRISK EASTERLY WIND MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LOWER MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

LARGE AREA OF VFR/MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO ROTATE
ESEWD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS EVENING. FOR THE MOST
PART..CEILINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY WELL BEHAVED IN THE 3500-4500 FOOT
RANGE..BUT THERE ARE A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF
NCENT/NW MN..ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT KINL FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING..BUT WE BELIEVE THAT THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE OTHER TAF SITES. OTHERWISE..A SLOW DECREASE IN
WINDS/GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS..BUT VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TUE MORNING
NORTH AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KHYR. ALTHO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG TOMORROW..STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTINESS TO DEVELOP
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING INTO 25-30KT 925/850
FLOW..ALONG WITH SCT/BKN CUMULUS..ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  65  50  71 /  10   0  10   0
INL  45  63  39  71 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  48  68  50  74 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  50  67  47  72 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  52  69  51  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MILLER






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.