Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 170041
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
741 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WESTERN COUTNIES WITH SCATTERED
RW- MOVING INTO THAT AREA. ALOS...ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS FOR 2 HOURS
WITH SOME LIGHTNING HITS OCCURRING. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

AT 3OOPM...THERE WAS A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NE NORTH DAKOTA AND NW MINNESOTA. AN ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE LOW SOUTH OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND INTO WESTERN IOWA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
HAD SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE WELL
INTO THE 60S. THERE WAS COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE
TO STRONG EAST TO NE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THERE WAS A BAND OF
SHOWERS OVER NE NORTH DAKOTA AND STRETCHING INTO NW MINNESOTA.
THIS APPEARED TO BE LINED UP WITH A BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. THERE WERE ALSO SOME WEAK STORMS IN THIS BAND.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE STACKED LOW AND ITS OCCLUDED AND COLD FRONTS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND. THIS LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS. SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING A BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP NEAR
THE TWIN PORTS AREA ALONG THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AN ENHANCED BAND OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASED CHANCES OVER THAT AREA DUE TO THE DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT MODEL INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY WEAK TO
SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF THUNDER. GRANTED...THERE IS SOME
THUNDER AT THIS TIME IN NW MINNESOTA...BUT THERE IS BOTH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SOLID BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER
TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT FEEL IT WAS WORTH HAVING IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. IT WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO ANY BANDS OF
FRONTOGENESIS...SO THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE WHEN
THOSE BANDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL BE VERY LOW NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE FROM THE NE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN...SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN CLOUDY
SKIES AND THERE WILL BE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S. THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT IN THE MIDDLE AND
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND IN NW FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ADJACENT TO LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THE SOUTH SHORE. IN GENERAL...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ON THE DECREASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND NORTH WINDS. THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH COULD REACH 50 IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S. SATURDAY
NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COLD NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH. STRONG WAA WILL USHER IN THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...BUT
LOOKING LIKE MAINLY CHANCE TYPE POPS AT THIS POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE NEARER THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH MOVES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. MAJOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE
50S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 60S BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. STILL A GOOD DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA ON
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

THE DENSE FOG FROM OVERNIGHT HAD LARGELY DISSIPATED AS OF
MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROM NEAR KTWM NORTHEASTWARD. AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES TONIGHT...AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WE ARE EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN STRATUS AND FOG ONCE
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KDLH...BUT MAY EXPAND INLAND TO KHIB AND KHYR
EVENTUALLY THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WELL...AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  50  33  47 /  50  60  20  10
INL  42  49  26  47 /  30  30  10  10
BRD  47  53  36  51 /  30  30  10   0
HYR  44  51  35  51 /  40  50  20  10
ASX  42  51  35  48 /  40  70  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP






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