Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 260148
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
848 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH SOME EVEN WEAKER TROUGH AXES TO SERVE AS THE
INITIATOR FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AT 850MB...THERE
IS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  THIS FEATURE IS GOING TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND A FEW OF THESE
ELEVATED STORMS MAY MOVE OUR WAY AS WELL.  THUS...HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS IN THE GRIDS BUT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW AND EXPECT SOME
ADJUSTMENT.  TONIGHT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.  THIS
WILL ALSO GIVE US A BIT OF A BOOST FOR SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMER
THAN TODAY WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO BOOST US INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.  THE INCREASING
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL MAKE IT FEEL VERY MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING WILL PUSH
FARTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS YIELDING SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE MID- AND LOW-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE WARM MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 90S.

WITH THE VERY WARM AIRMASS OVERHEAD...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ALOFT. ONLY THE GFS INDICATES A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE OTHER MODELS TOO
CAPPED FOR STORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER CONSENSUS. LATER UPDATES
MAY INTRODUCE EVENING STORMS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS DURING THE EVENING WHICH MAY SURVIVE
THE TRIP INTO MY WEST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
ALONG WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MUCH OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRIER WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. GFS BRINGS A
STACKED LOW INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM BOTH TAKE THE FEATURE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO. A TRACK
FARTHER NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...WHILE AN OUTCOME
CLOSER TO THE GFS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN OVER
THE NORTH. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL SHAVE 10 DEGREES OFF
TUESDAY HIGHS FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE
70S WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE EAST. MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S.

A FEW POCKETS OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AS A VORT MAX
PASSES THROUGH THE BORDERLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  85  65  85 /  20  10  10  10
INL  57  87  64  87 /  50  20  10  20
BRD  63  86  65  87 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  59  85  62  86 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  63  87  62  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...GRANING



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