000
FXUS63 KMQT 140006
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
806 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED WEST OF JAMES BAY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE EAST
COAST...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA TO RELAX AND
WINDS TO DIE DOWN.

CONSEQUENTLY...AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE HIGH CENTERS OVER
WESTERN UPPER MI WINDS WILL BE CALM...SO EXPECT THAT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THIS RANGE WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING IN THE
INTERIOR MOST PORTIONS OF THE WEST...THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD. IN THE EAST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER
AND WILL KEEP THINGS GENERALLY WARMER.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY...AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND 15-18C
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE IN THE 70S...WITH COOLEST TEMPS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
CONTROLLED PRIMARILY BY THE LAKE BREEZES THAT WILL DEVELOP UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND WARM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

MOST OF THE LONG TERM AFTER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY NW
FLOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPS WILL SHOW SOME FLUCTUATION...
BUT MANY DAYS SHOULD END UP FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.

BEGINNING FRI NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING E OF THE
AREA WHILE A LOW PRES TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN. WEAK
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT GETS UNDERWAY...BUT WITH MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS
STILL JUST W OF UPPER MI THRU THE NIGHT...IT WOULD SEEM PCPN
POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS AND PRESENCE OF WARM FRONT IN IA/IL THAT WILL
INTERCEPT THE BULK OF RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP CHC POPS CONFINED TO FAR WRN UPPER MI. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
COOLEST OVER THE E CLOSER TO RETREATING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DRIER
AIR.

INITIAL PUSH OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
SAT...FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF MIDLEVEL DRYING. WILL SPREAD
DIMINISHING POPS EASTWARD IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS OVERALL PCPN
POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH PROGRESSION EWD INTO DRY AIR MASS. IN
THE AFTN...QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING THAT WOULD PROBABLY PREVENT CONVECTION...AND
GFS HAS A SIMILAR LOOK. THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THRU NRN
MN/ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN. SINCE WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING MAY ARRIVE LATE IN THE
DAY TO PROVIDE SOME ASCENT TO HELP BREAK CAP...WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS
IN THE LATER AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...AND THEN SCHC/CHC POPS
ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE N.

SUN...THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER UPPER MI BTWN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TO THE E AND SLOWLY
APPROACHING AND OPENING UP CLOSED LOW APPROACHING NW MN. RESULT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WX OVER THE FCST AREA SUN. INCLUDED SCHC POPS E
IN THE MORNING WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND THEN SCHC POPS IN THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S/LWR 80S WITH A
DECENT DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE.

SUN NIGHT/MON...BEST CHC FOR SHRA AND SOME TSTMS LOOKS TO BE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS SHORTWAVE...WHICH WAS THE REMNANT OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW TO THE WNW...MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES. FOR NOW...CHC
POPS LOOK REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE BEST FORCING PASSES SUN
NIGHT/MON MORNING DURING DIURNAL MIN. IF TIMING IS FASTER SO FORCING
COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING SUN AFTN OR SLOWER SO IT COINCIDES WITH
PEAK HEATING MON AFTN...PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHER.

TUE/WED...IT APPEARS THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE DRY FOLLOWING PASSAGE
OF SHORTWAVE EARLY MON AND IN ADVANCE OF BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE RIDGE INTO THE ERN TROF. TYPICALLY...
THIS KIND OF SITUATION IN SUMMER LEADS TO ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IF
THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...WILL LEAVE
PCPN MENTION OUT...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO EXAMINE AGAIN IN
LATER FCSTS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD LINGER INTO THU AS MID/UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY WILL KEEP WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL STILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT
ONCE AGAIN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MCD