Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 111903

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
203 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 203 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the central U.S.
with troughing in the Canadian Prairies 12z Sun with a shortwave
over Lake Winnipeg. The trough and shortwave head east and the upper
air pattern gradually deamplifies over the central U.S. on Mon as a
trough digs into the western U.S. The snow will continue to move out
this afternoon across the eastern cwa and then pretty quiet for the
forecast. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going
forecast for temperatures and small chances for lake effect snow
showers across the west northwest snow belts east of Marquette.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 450 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2018

No major weather impacts expected through the extended with
occasional light snow chances and generally below normal
temperatures expected.

Monday through Tuesday night: Dry surface ridging is expected to
slide into the Upper Great Lakes region through this time period as
the upper level troughing begins to flatten across the area. This
will lead to moderating temperatures along with partly cloudy skies
across the Upper Peninsula. The exception will be Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday night as the aforementioned ridge begins to shift to
the east of the area, allowing for return moist flow. This will
result in increasing clouds from the southwest and possibly some
light lake effect snow over the eastern U.P. downwind of Lake
Michigan. Otherwise, no major weather impacts expected.

Wednesday through Wednesday night: The aforementioned upper level
trough will continue to flatten through this time period as
southerly flow kicks up ahead of a cold front approaching from
Ontario. This will allow 850mb temperatures to warm to around +4C to
+6C by Wednesday afternoon. This, along with mostly clear skies,
will allow daytime highs to warm above average briefly, with many
locations expected to reach the the upper 30s to low 40s. Late
Wednesday night, the cold front will slide into the U.P., bringing
colder temperatures back to the area along with some widespread
light snow. Again, lake enhancement will be marginal over the
western U.P.; however, the eastern U.P. may end up seeing better
lake enhancement late Wednesday night. Overall not expecting much in
the way of accumulations as forcing is not overly impressive and
models differ on the amount of available moisture as the system
moves through.  Model output only shows around a couple hundreths of
an inch of QPF, again indicating only light accumulations.

Thursday through the rest of the extended: At this point, stuck with
a consensus of the models through this time period, which shows
fairly steady troughing over the eastern CONUS. This would support
continued below normal temperatures into the first part of the next
weekend. Additionally, intermittent waves will slide around the
broad troughing, giving occasional light snow chances for the U.P.
Any lake enhancement will continue to be minimized over the west
half of the U.P. with extensive and ever expanding ice coverage
through this time period. Overall fairly quiet pattern will continue
through the extended.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 203 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2018

VFR conditions are expected to persist at all sites.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 203 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2018

A period of wnw to nw gales to 40 knots is expected through late
tonight over the eastern lake behind a cold front moving through the
region. Southwest gales are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night across central and eastern Lake Superior. These will be the
strongest winds for this forecast period.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for LSZ266-267.

Lake Michigan...


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