Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 020832
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
332 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITHIN TROF...NEXT SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN. CLOSER TO HOME...SOME
-SHSH/FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL
UPPER MI TODAY IN VCNTY OF SFC TROF WHICH IS NOW ROUGHLY BISECTING
UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AREA OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
SHIFTS ACROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WITH ASSOCIATED
BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE...850MB TEMPS AROUND -18C...AND A
ROUGHLY 3KFT DGZ LAYER BTWN ROUGHLY 2K AND 5KFT...WOULD NORMALLY BE
CONCERNED ABOUT SEEING SEVERAL HRS OF HEALTHY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IF
THE LAKE WASN`T MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THAT SAID...THE BRISK SW TO W
WINDS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE OPENED UP SOME NOTABLE GAPS IN
THE ICE...SO THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALIZED MORE
PERSISTENT LES AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION. FROM TODAYS MODIS AND VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY...A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT GAPS IN THE ICE ARE NOTED
FROM AROUND THE HURON ISLANDS DOWN PAST GRANITE ISLAND AND OVER TO N
OF MUNISING...AND ALSO IN THE AREA E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS WHICH
HAS CERTAINLY HAD A TENDENCY TO OPEN UP OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WHEN
WINDS ARE SW. WILL THUS HIT HIGHEST POPS AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
DOWNWIND OF THESE OPEN WATER AREAS THIS EVENING (JUST N OF IRONWOOD
TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS AND ALSO ALGER COUNTY). STRONG NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS TAKE OVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SO LES INTENSITY WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AWAY FROM THESE AREAS...
WNW/NW FLOW LES SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCT WITH ACCUMULATIONS UNDER
1 INCH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME FLURRIES IN MOST AREAS AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES. TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W TOWARD THE WI BORDER SHOULD FALL
DOWN TOWARD ZERO WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F.

ANY LINGERING LES TO THE E OF MARQUETTE WILL END BY MON AFTN UNDER
WAA/BACKING WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE (BY MID AFTN
850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE AROUND -12C). WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO START THE
DAY...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME SUNNY DURING THE DAY WITH DRY AIR
MASS AND DEPARTURE OF 850MB THERMAL TROF. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 TO THE UPPER 20S...COOLEST OVER THE FAR E...CLOSER TO
DEPARTING THERMAL TROF.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

PRIMARY IMPACT IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE TUE AS MODERATE SNOW MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

AT 12Z TUE A NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NRN MANITOBA WHILE A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE SRN/SWRN
CWA. SRN STREAM ENERGY STAYS MAINLY S OF THE CWA ON TUE AS THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVES INTO FAR NRN ONTARIO. GENERALLY MODERATE SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION IN THE BROAD AREA OF
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH LARGER SCALE FORCING AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE W. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE BETWEEN    15-1 AND 18-1
AS TEMP PROFILES DO NOT SHOW THE DGZ BEING PARTICULARLY DEEP...BUT
DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP RATIOS FROM BEING AS LOW AS 10-1. GENERALLY
PREFER A BLEND OF MODEL QPF FROM THE 00Z/02 GFS...12Z/01
ECMWF...00Z/02 NAM/NAM DNG...00Z/02 REGIONAL GEM AND 00Z/02 CONSALL.
THESE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON QPF AMOUNTS...BUT THERE IS
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...LIKELY DUE TO CHALLENGES OF SYSTEM PHASING.
PREFERRED MODEL BLEND GIVES QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.20-0.28
INCHES...RESULTING IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND 2.5
INCHES SCENTRAL TO 3-5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AT THE HIGHER END
OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 0.35 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR QPF AMOUNTS UP TO   5-6 INCHES.
THE LOW END OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE WOULD RESULT IN 2-3.5 INCHES OF
SNOW. LOOKING LIKE AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR TUE AS MOST OF THE
SNOW FALLS IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS DURING THE DAY AND CRITERIA IS 3-6
INCHES. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS
GIVEN VARIABILITY OF EXACT AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT DUE TO COMPLEXITIES
OF SYSTEM PHASING.

WITH 850MB TEMPS AS WARM AS -9C ON TUE...SFC HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ANOTHER COLDER PERIOD WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. 850MB TEMPS WILL DECREASE TO A MINIMUM
OF -25C TO -30C WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY LATE WED
MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING
PEAK HEATING WED AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WORK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE W WED NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE LINGERING COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS WED
NIGHT FALLING TO AROUND -20 ALONG THE WI BORDER IN GOGEBIC AND IRON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL THEN OCCUR FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WITH LAKE SUPERIOR NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED...LES
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED...BUT SCATTERED LIGHT
LES IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO THU IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS. BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AS WNW WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SHORE LATE TUE INTO WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF SFC LOW PRES TROF COULD RESULT IN SOME SCT -SHSN
AND TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KIWD AND KCMX. ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR AND BACKING WINDS MON MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS TO KIWD AND KCMX LATE MORNING. AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING UNDER DOWNSLOPE WNW
FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

SEEMS THAT POTENTIAL FOR GALES IS INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK TO BE 15 TO 25 KTS.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LK SUPERIOR IS AROUND 95 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...EXPECT THE HIGHER ICE
COVERAGE TO PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA


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