Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 222359
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
659 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

SKIES CLEARED OUT QUICKLY TODAY AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER
SASKATCHEWAN. THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO FAR NWRN ONTARIO AT 06Z FRI
AND THEN CROSS NERN LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z FRI. SYSTEM IS
COMPLICATED AS TEMPERATURES AND DGZ MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR MIXED
PRECIP AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH UPSLOPE W-NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

MOST HIGH RES MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING THE BEST QPF OVER THE NERN
CWA...MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI...BUT THE NCEP HIGH
RES WRF RUNS KEEP THE BEST QPF NE OF ERN UPPER MI. BLEND OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SUGGESTS UP TO 0.15 INCHES OVER ERN UPPER MI...WHICH
SHOULD FALL MOSTLY AS SNOW...RESULTING IN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THAT AREA GIVEN POOR SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIP SHOULD START AS SNOW BEFORE WARMING AIR COMES IN
AND TRANSITIONS PRECIP TO A WINTRY MIX OR ALL RAIN/FREEZING RAIN.
THE MIXED PRECIP SHOULD LAST LONG AS DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN
QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI...DRYING THE DGZ OUT. THE W-NW
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL THEN LEAD TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
UPSLOPE AREAS ON FRI. EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MINIMAL AS MOST
LOCATIONS WARM TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON FRI AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ENOUGH TO HELP REDUCE ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY 00Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-
500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS STAYING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA.

WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER AND IN THE SOUTH WITH THE ALBERTA
CLIPPER PASSING BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GOING TEMPERATURES LOOKED
GOOD AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THEM.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. THIS TROUGH DIGS ONTO THE EAST COAST 12Z TUE
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE
12Z WED. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU
WITH A SHOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE WITH VERY LOW POPS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...NO BIG CHANGES OR BIG EVENTS SEEN AND WILL BE
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE NOTED TO THE SW IN WRN WI/ERN
MN...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THESE LOWER CLOUDS COULD
PERSIST AND SPREAD NE...AFFECTING KIWD AND/OR KSAW. OTHERWISE...
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ESE TOWARD NRN
ONTARIO WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LLWS WHERE
INVERSION RESULTS IN SFC WINDS REMAINING MORE DECOUPLED. A PERIOD OF
LIGHT MIXED PCPN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...THOUGH VIS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR AS THE PCPN SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. AS THE
PCPN ENDS...CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS FRI. FURTHER
REDUCTION TO IFR SHOULD OCCUR AT KIWD/KCMX IN THE AFTN UNDER
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW...AND THERE COULD BE SOME -DZ/-FZDZ
AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OF 35-40KTS OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. BASED OFF THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME 45KT GUSTS AT THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AROUND ISLE ROYALE. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
BRINGING AN END TO THE GALES. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT WINDS TO 25-
30KTS BEFORE SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH ON
MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND
THE SECONDARY TROUGH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA
AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SLIDE THROUGH WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO
20KTS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS CLIPPER AND KEEP WINDS 15KTS OR BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264-
     266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS


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