Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gaston was upgraded to a hurricane at 25/0415
UTC. Hurricane Gaston is centered near 18.7N 42.2W at 25/0415
UTC or about 1055 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands moving
northwest at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 18N-22N
between 39W-43W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the
full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...Gale Warning for Southwest Atlantic...
A Gale warning has been issued for the area northeast of a broad
area of low pressure analyzed as a 1009 mb low north of Puerto
Rico/Mona Passage near 20N67W. These winds are expected to
continue for the next 48 hours. Scattered to numerous strong
convection is redeveloping near the low center from 18.5N-20.5N
between 65W-68W including the north coast of Puerto Rico.
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the area from
20N to over Puerto Rico, the Virgin islands, and the Mona
Passage between 63W-69W; from 17N-21N between the 69W-73W
including portions of Hispaniola. Environmental conditions have
the potential to become more conducive for tropical development
over the weekend when the system is near the central or
northwestern Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds,
heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mudslides are likely
to occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the
next couple of days. There is a medium chance of tropical
development in the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

None.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 18N16W through a weak 1009 mb low near 16N18W then
continues along 12N23W to 12N35W. The ITCZ is not currently
evident. The monsoon trough/ITCZ continues to be disrupted by
Tropical Storm Gaston. No associated showers or deep convection
is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper ridge is anchored over the central Mississippi
covering the Gulf waters north of 24N. An elongated upper trough
extends from the Yucatan peninsula near 19N91W to over Mexico
near Tampico. The diurnal surface trough has moved off the west
coast of the Yucatan at 25/0300 UTC from 21N91W over Mexico to
near 17N92W generating scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the east Bay of Campeche south of 21N east of 92W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms dot the east Gulf from 22N-28N east of
90W to the Florida peninsula and in the coastal waters of
southeast Louisiana. The west Gulf is under mostly clear skies
tonight. A weak surface ridge extends from the northwest
Atlantic across the far southeast CONUS to over the north Gulf
and is anchored by a 1026 mb high in the northwest Atlantic.
This surface ridge will persist through Saturday night. The low
in the Special Features could cause winds and seas to increase
over the northeastern Gulf on Sunday into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern tonight is the low in the Special Features
moving just north of the Greater Antilles. Please see the
Special Features section above for the activity associated with
this system over the northeast Caribbean. The elongated upper
trough over the Gulf of Mexico extends across the Yucatan along
19N to 81W. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 90 nm along the south coast of Cuba
between 76W-85W and in the southwest Caribbean south of 10N
between Colombia and Costa Rica. Isolated showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms cover the remainder of the east Caribbean
north of 12N east of 70W to over the Lesser Antilles associated
with the low in the Special Features. The low in the Special
Features will continue to track northwestward. The strongest
winds are found northeast of the low.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over
portions of the island due to the low in the Special Features.
Please see the Special Features section above. The low is
expected to move northwestward north of the island through early
Friday, but could still produce gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mud slides over portions of the
island during the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary concern tonight is the low in the Special Features
moving just north of the Greater Antilles. Please see the
Special Features section above for the activity associated with
this system over the southwest Atlantic. The upper ridge over
the Gulf of Mexico extends a ridge axis across south Georgia
into the west Atlantic to near 28N73W. An upper trough north of
30N is supporting a stationary front that extends through 32N66W
to 28N74W continuing as a surface trough into the Straits of
Florida near near 24N82W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of the front and
trough. A 1016 mb low, the remnants of Fiona, is centered just
south of the front near 29N68W and coupled with diffluent flow
from a second upper ridge to the east of the front is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 27N west
of 59W to the front. An upper low is over the central Atlantic
near 25N52W and is supporting a surface trough that extends from
31N45W along 29N50W to 26N52W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 120 nm west of the surface trough. The
remainder of the east Atlantic north of Hurricane Gaston east of
60W is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high
southwest of the Azores near 36N32W and a 1026 mb high near
34N44W. The Special Features low will track northwestward
through the Bahamas into the weekend with gale force winds
northeast of the surface low.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW



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