Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 170552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is along 31N64W to 26N70W to 23N80W. SW gale-force
winds and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 16 feet, are to the
north of 29N within 240 nm to the east of the cold front. Expect
these conditions for the next 24 hours or so. Please read the HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W, to 02N17W and to the equator along 21W. The ITCZ
continues from the equator along 21W to 01S25W, 03S26W 03N32W and
04S36W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 01N to 08N between 09W and 14W. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 10N from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS CUBA, INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level-to-upper level SW-to-W wind flow is moving through
the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level atmospheric support for the
current cold front that is in the area is in the Atlantic Ocean,
from North Carolina to the NW Bahamas. A trough from 600 mb to 800
mb passes through Florida to the Yucatan Channel. A cold front
passes through 32N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 26N70W, to Cuba
near 23N80W, and 21N84W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The
front is stationary from 21N84W to 19N90W in the Yucatan
Peninsula. A north-to-south oriented surface trough is in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, in the coastal waters of the Yucatan
Peninsula, Belize, and Honduras. Convective precipitation: the
24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 17/0000 UTC...
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.71 in Bermuda with the
cold front. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 26N
northward between 50W and 64W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere
in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 64W westward, and in
the Caribbean Sea from 16N northward from 76W westward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1019
mb high pressure center is near 29N90W, along the coast of SE
Louisiana.

Rainshowers are possible from 20N to 26N between 92W and 100W,
in the Gulf of Mexico and in the coastal plains of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain in Hebbronville. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR.
FLORIDA: MVFR in the Key West metropolitan area.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire
Caribbean Sea. High level clouds are moving through the NW corner,
across the Greater Antilles, and moving from South America into
the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea from 75W eastward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery elsewhere across the area.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea, in
areas of broken low level clouds.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area. Anticyclonic
wind flow is present from 600 mb to 800 mb. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across
Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona, at 17/0000 UTC, VFR. Santo Domingo/
La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: MVFR.
ceiling at 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the first 12 hours of the 48-hour
forecast period. W-to-NW wind flow will move across the area
during the rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the first
30 hours or so of the 48-hour forecast period. An anticyclonic
circulation center will move on top of Hispaniola after the first
30 hours, and it will spread anticyclonic wind flow across the
area during the rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700
mb shows that broad anticyclonic wind flow will cover Hispaniola
for the first 24 hours or so, followed by NE wind flow for the
rest of the time.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through the Madeira
Archipelago, to 23N23W and 17N32W. This trough is coming into
phase with the base of an upper level trough that reaches 10N37W.
The upper level feature is part of an area of upper level wind
flow that is moving through 20N60W as westerly, becoming NW
between 20N60W and 10N37W. The wind flow is anticyclonic to the
south and southeast of 10N37W 20N28W beyond 24N16W. A cold front
passes through 32N24W to 31N25W. rainshowers are possible to the
east and southeast of the line that passes through 32N30W 25N50W
20N60W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure center that
is near 35N33W, to 32N37W 25N46W, to 20N58W and 20N80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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