Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 022258 RRA

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
558 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
06N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N20W to 04N27W to 08N38W to 08N44W. Numerous moderate convection
is from 07N-15N between 36W-50W with scattered moderate convection
elsewhere from 04N-18N between 29W-50W.


Southwesterly flow aloft prevails ahead of an approaching middle
to upper level trough noted on water vapor imagery over the Desert
SW and portions of NW Mexico. This upper level feature is inducing
a broad area of surface low pressure across northern Mexico and
the Rio Grande River valley and supporting a warm front extending
across the NW Gulf waters from 25N91W to the Texas coast near
Corpus Christi. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring along and N of the warm front generally W of 90W.
Easterly winds are expected to remain in the strong breeze level
through Saturday morning in the vicinity of the front as it moves
N-NE...while fresh to strong E-SE winds prevail across portions
of the southern Gulf waters that is forecast to expand in areal
coverage as the area of low pressure develops and strengthens
through Sunday. The associated cold front is expected to emerge
off the Texas coast early Monday.

An upper level ridge remains centered over much of the Caribbean
basin with axis extending from northern Colombia 11N75W to 22N71W.
Water vapor imagery indicates relatively dry and stable air aloft
in association with the ridging however a surface trough analyzed
from 13N71W to the coast of Hispaniola near 18N70W is providing
focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms from 15N-18N
between 68W-77W. Other convective activity is associated with the
Monsoon Trough axis analyzed from northern Colombia to southern
Costa Rica along 09N with scattered showers and tstms occurring S
of 12N. Finally...moderate to fresh trades prevail and are
expected to persist through the weekend.

A surface trough extends across the southeastern adjacent coastal
waters of the island providing focus for widely scattered showers
and isolated tstms this evening and through the overnight hours.
This activity is strongest in the vicinity of 16N70W.
Otherwise...a dry and stable anticyclonic circulation is centered
S of the island over the SW Caribbean Sea near 13N74W providing
mostly fair conditions aloft which are expected to persist.

Generally westerly flow aloft prevails to 55W...however a cold
front extends into the discussion area near 32N68W. The front
continues SW to 28N77W then becomes stationary into the Florida
Straits near 24N83W. Isolated showers are occurring within 75 nm
either side of the front that is expected to weaken gradually
through Saturday night. The remainder of the SW North Atlc W of
the front is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a
1027 mb high centered across northern Alabama. Farther east...
across the central Atlc...another ridge prevails anchored by a
1020 mb high centered near 26N51W. Within the southwestern
periphery of the ridge a surface trough is analyzed from 19N65W to
24N64W with isolated showers occurring 180 nm either side of the
trough axis. Lastly...a middle to upper level trough is noted on
water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 37N23W supporting a cold
front 32N21W SW to 27N30W to 28N34W then becomes stationary to
31N41W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring N of 30N within
75 nm either side of the boundary.

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