Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W TO 05N18W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N18W 03N30W 03N42W
AND 01N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 03N
TO 06N BETWEEN 15W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS
SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE/SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 27N/28N ALONG 85W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...AND KGRY.

IFR CONDITIONS...KGUL...KGHB...AND KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KEHC...KVBS...KVQT...
KEIR...KSPR...KATP...AND KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MOSTLY IFR WITH A FEW MVFR OBSERVATIONS IN THE LOWER
VALLEY. IFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...NEAR
CORPUS CHRISTI AND ALICE AND KINGSVILLE. LIFR IN VICTORIA.
IFR IN PORT LAVACA AND PALACIOS...IN BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/ LAKE
JACKSON. A MIXTURE OF IFR AND MVFR IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA...MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...VFR IN GALVESTON. LIFR IN
CONROE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN NEW IBERIA. MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...IFR IN MARIANNA AND PERRY.

...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CUBA INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH
SPANS CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD.

THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES 20N60W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALONG NORTHERN PUERTO RICO 24
HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SAN JUAN...AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VFR CEILING AT 28/0000 UTC. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...RAIN AND
THUNDER. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW
REMAINING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AFTER EARLIER RAINSHOWERS.
SANTIAGO...A MVFR CLOUD CEILING AT 1600 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET...
VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY ONE...
AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS HAITI...AND
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N36W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM A 32N30W TRIPLE
POINT...TO 29N30W 22N40W 22N46W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 22N46W TO 23N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N56W TO
24N64W 22N68W AND 20N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT FROM
23N36W NORTHWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W...AND FROM
18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
SAN JUAN...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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