Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 221147

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.


Cindy made landfall between Cameron, Louisiana and Port Arthur,
Texas within the last couple of hours. The center of Tropical
Storm Cindy at 22/1200 UTC is near 30.5N 93.7W, or about 35 nm
NW of Lake Charles, Louisiana. Cindy is moving N at 10 knots. The
maximum sustained wind speed is 35 KT with gusts to 45 KT. The
minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Scattered heavy showers and
tstms are N of 27N W of 90W as well as N of 21N between 84W and
90W. Please read the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/
Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for
more details.


A tropical wave came off the west coast of Africa last night. Its
axis extends from 12N16W to 03N20W. The wave is in a region of
favorable wind shear, is in moderate moist environment with
patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region
of upper level divergence. These factors support scattered heavy
showers and isolated tstms from 07N to 13N E of 22W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
11N38W to 0N41W, moving west at 10 to 15 knots within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a
mostly very moist environment with some patches of dry air
according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region of middle level
divergence. These factors support numerous to scattered heavy
showers and tstms from 0N to 11N between 33W and 45W.

A tropical wave is within 150 nm E of the Lesser Antilles. Its
axis extends from 16N57W to inland Guyana, moving west at 15
knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of
favorable wind shear. However, extensive intrusion of Saharan dry
air and dust hinder convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 20N74W to 10N76W, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. The wave is
entering a region of unfavorable wind shear. CIRA LPW imagery show
patches of dry air in the northern wave environment, which are
limiting the convection to scattered to isolated showers N of 13N.
Scattered heavy showers and tstms are S of 13N, mainly associated
with the EPAC monsoon trough.


The Monsoon Trough enters the E Atlc waters near 13N16W and
continues along 10N20W to 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from 05N44W to
06N56W. For information regarding convection see the tropical
waves section.



Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall between Cameron, Louisiana and
Port Arthur, Texas earlier this morning. The center of Cindy will
move into southeastern Arkansas early Friday, and into Tennessee
later on Friday. Cindy is expected to produce rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches
over eastern Texas, western and central Louisiana and southern and
eastern Arkansas through Friday morning. Additional rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches
over southern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama and
extreme western Florida Panhandle are expected through Friday
morning. Tropical storm winds in the forecast waters are expected
to diminish to fresh to strong winds this evening. For further
details on the storm see the Special Features section. Besides the
tropical storm force winds in the north-central and NW Gulf, the
latest ASCAT pass indicate SE winds of 15 to 25 kt between 85W
and 90W. Light to moderate SE winds are over the SW Gulf along
with fair skies.


An upper level low centered NE of Honduras and a ridge centered
over Puerto Rico generate divergent flow aloft ahead of a
tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean, thus supporting
showers and tstms between 73W and 80W. See the waves section for
further details. In the SW basin, the eastern North Pacific
monsoon trough continues to support scattered to numerous heavy
showers and tstms S of 14N W of 76W, including inland Central
America. Fresh to strong winds are in the central basin associated
with the wave. Fresh to strong winds are in the Gulf of Honduras
while moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. A new tropical wave
will enter the E Caribbean later today. Scattered showers will be
associated with this wave, especially in the NE basin.


The passage of a tropical wave continues to generate scattered to
isolated showers across Haiti. Scattered showers and isolated
moderate convection can be expected through this evening over
Hispaniola, especially at the times of diurnal heating. By Friday,
chances for precipitation should diminish as the wave pushes
westward away from Hispaniola and drier air at the mid and upper
levels pushes in from the east.


There are three tropical waves in the basin. See that section
above for further details. Otherwise, the Azores high prevails
across the basin being anchored by a 1025 mb high near 35N47W.
Two weaknesses in the ridge are being analyzed as surface troughs.
One trough is along 29N49W to 23N52W and the second trough is
along 32N24W to 25N26W. Isolated showers are within 210 nm either
side of both troughs. The modest pressure gradient south of the
high is producing light 10-20 KT tradewinds across the Atlantic.
No significant areas of convection are occurring away from the
ITCZ/monsoon trough/tropical waves. Little change is expected for
the next couple of days.

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