Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 301808 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO ELIMINATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION
PARAGRAPH ABOUT A MIDDLE LEVEL/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W
AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N44W 14N46W 7N48W.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WAVE...AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N21W TO 6N33W...AND 5N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 15W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS...AFFECTING
FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FEW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO A
GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N84W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO
27N88W AND 28N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N92W TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR 29N95W...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IN
THE NORTH PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF 21N97W 22N90W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A BIT OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.56 IN
GUADALAJARA IN MEXICO...0.53 IN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO...AND 0.38 IN
MERIDA MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMZG...KGVX...KVAF...KVQT...KIKT...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM PERRY WESTWARD...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN
THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA WITH
RAIN...AND JUST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA GORDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N63W TO 26N61W 22N58W...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/
PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W...
AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 61W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 555W AND 62W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.25 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-PUERTO RICO-TO-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME...MAINTAINING THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.20 IN
BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 30/1200 UTC FOR BERMUDA IS 0.73.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 18N53W
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N52W 14N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W...AND FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND
54W. ISOLATED MODERATE...AND WEAKENING...FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN
46W AND 49W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...RELATED TO A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ARE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W...RELATED TO AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATE IN THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO 28N53W 21N64W...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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