Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 280604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N78W TO 19N81W THEN
STATIONARY TO 16N86W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 14 FEET...IN THE AREA OF THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT
TO 87W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 06
HOURS OR LESS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA NEAR 9N13W...TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO 7N25W 7N31W AND 6N40W 5N47W...TO
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO
7N BETWEEN 25W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 7N FROM 23W
EASTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 1W AND 7W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 32N74W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTH
OF 23N80W 22N90W 23N98W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...VIA THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW.

STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KIKT
AND KIPN.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WAS REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS
AND FOG AT 28/0411 UTC. THE VISIBILITY IS 7 MILES NOW.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N61W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N62W...TO 15N67W...TO 9N74W
NEAR THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE 17N85W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N62W TO 25N47W TO 28N42W
BEYOND 32N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 32N
BETWEEN 51W AND 59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 43W AND 60W...AND FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 44W AND
51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 19N60W 16N70W...
AND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N85W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HONDURAS TO CUBA
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND BELIZE/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N
TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 19N81W
17N85W...INTO HONDURAS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.09 IN
CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...WITH SOME CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...WERE IN
SANTO DOMINGO FROM 27/2100 UTC UNTIL 28/0400 UTC. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WITH AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL REACH HISPANIOLA
FOR 6 TO 12 HOURS. WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS. HISPANIOLA
WILL END UP IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 30 TO 36
HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A RIDGE TO THE WEST
AND AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE INVERTED TROUGH
EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE WESTWARD AT THE 30 TO 36 HOUR TIME DURING
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N11W TO
THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 26N14W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N NORTHWARD
FROM 32W EASTWARD.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N43W...TO 27N36W 23N30W 20N22W...AND INTO
MAURITANIA NEAR 21N8W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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