Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 161628

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1128 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong artic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf. As of 1500
UTC, the front extends from near Mobile, Alabama to just south of
Brownsville, Texas, and continues across northern mexican states.
Gusty winds to gale force are noted behind the front along the
coast of Texas and coastal waters. The front will quickly reach
from the Florida panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of
Tampico, Mexico this evening, then move SE of the area early on
Wed. Cold artic offshore northerly flow behind the front will
bring near gale force winds with frequent gusts to gale force over
the NW Gulf today and tonight, and gale force NW to N winds near
Tampico and Veracruz tonight through early on Wed. A gale warning
is in effect for the western Gulf waters while many winter storm
warnings have been issued along the N Gulf states. Wintry mix is
forecast for central and southern Texas into Louisiana and the
central Gulf coast today.

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore
Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Liberia,
Africa and continues to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to
02N30W to 01N35W to 02N45W to the Equator at 50W into NE Brazil.
Scattered moderate convection N of the Equator to the coast of
Africa between the Prime Meridian and 07W. Similar convection is
from 00N-05N between 35W and 45W, and from 02N-05N between 48W
and 51W.



A strong artic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf. See Special
Features section for more details. A ridge dominates the remainder
of the Gulf waters, and will shift eastward and weaken through
tonight. Visible satellite imagery shows the frontal boundary over
the NW Gulf, and cold air stratocumulus clouds across the remainder
of the area, with persistent low clouds across the eastern slopes
of the Sierra Madre Mountains.


A stationary front remains across the basin, and extends from
Camaguey, Cuba to 18N80W to the SW Caribbean near 12N83W. An area
of scattered showers and tstms are noted near the southern end of
the front. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are observed behind the
front over the NW Caribbean while patches of low level moisture,
embedded in the trade wind flow, are seen across the remainder of
the area E of the front. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong
northerly winds behind the front, and moderate to fresh trade
winds east of the frontal boundary, with the exception of fresh
to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. The front will weaken
and dissipate by Wed morning. Moisture associated with the remnants
of the front will drif westward today into Wednesday, increasing
the likelihood of showers over Central America and the NW Caribbean.
Strong N winds along the coast of Nicaragua will slowly diminish
to moderate this evening through Fri night. Otherwise, strong
winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through Sat
night. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the
tropical Atlc waters until this evening.


Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers will prevail for the next couple of days under the
influence of a ridge. A surface trough passing N of Puerto Rico
will produce little convection.


A cold front extends from 31N66W to 28N70W where it becomes stationary
then continues across the Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Strong N to NE
winds W of the front will gradually diminish today as the front
weakens. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on
Wed, then weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas
by Thu evening, then become a westward moving trough over the far
SE waters Fri. Strong high pres behind the front will induce
strong northerly winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas on

High pressure of 1040 mb located just W of the Azores near 40N33W
dominates the remainder of the ocean to Africa. Scatterometer data
indicates a large area of fresh to strong trades north of 15N
between 20W-40W. A surface trough associated with an upper-level
low extends along 64W/65W N of 25N. Another surface trough is SE
of an upper- level low centered near 28N45W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection associated with this system is
found N of 29N between 40W-46W.

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