Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 250004

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

A 1008 mb surface low near 31N75W is moving NE at 15 kt while
occluding. A cold front extends well E of the low from 31N71W
to 26N68W to 20N72W. Gale force southeast winds are occurring N
of 29N between 67W and 69W with seas of 12 to 15 FT, while strong
to cyclonic flow is observed elsewhere N of 24N within 180 nm E
of the front. The low will lift N of 32N tonight with winds
dropping below gale force by then. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more

The Monsoon Trough extends SSW from the from the African coast
near 06N11W to 02N16W where scatterometer winds indicate a
transition to an ITCZ which continues SW to 01N25W to the equator
at 39W and the coast of South America near 02S44W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 14W and 33W.



A weak surface trough has emerged off the Texas coast with winds
shifting to the NE at 10 kt. Light and variable winds prevail over
the Gulf east of this trough with scattered to locally broken low
clouds over the Gulf N of 27N. A cold front is expected to move
off the Texas coast and overtake the surface trough later tonight
with fresh to strong N to NE winds developing across the NW Gulf
in the wake of the front. The front will extend from the Florida
panhandle to the northern Bay of Campeche by Sat morning and pass
through the Straits of Florida on Sun afternoon with SE return
flow developing over the Gulf W of 90W.


The presence of the gale center in the southwest North Atlantic
has disrupted the normal trade wind regime in the basin. Winds
are generally light and variable across most of the basin with
wave heights around 2 to 3 FT. As high pressure builds to the N
of the area by late in the weekend, moderate to fresh, locally
strong trade winds are expected to resume. Strongest winds are
expected within 90 NM of the coast of Colombia beginning Sun


The southern extent of a cold front reaches the N coast of Haiti
with broken to overcast low and mid clouds and isolated thunderstorms
over northern portions of the Dominican Republic. The front will
move east and weaken through Sat, however low level southwesterly
flow suggests with afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain likely
over the island.


A 1008 mb surface low near 31N75W is moving NE at 15 kt while
occluding. A cold front extends well E of the low from 31N71W
to 26N68W to 20N72W. See the Special Features section for gale
force winds associated with this feature. A large area of
overcast multi-layered clouds covers the area N of 25N between 60W
and 70W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 25N within
180-240 NM east of the cold front. A 1027 mb high pressure
centered near 37N58W dominated the area N of 25N between 48W and
65W. Further east, a stationary front extends from 32N37W to
21N62W with scattered showers observed within 120 NM of the front
to the N of 25N. The remainder of the far eastern Atlantic is
under the influence of a surface ridge extending SW from a 1026 MB
high centered near 34N25W.

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