Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 222335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
10N15W TO 9N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N29W TO
8N41W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 15W-27W... AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 35N78W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 15-20 KT E TO SE FLOW MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN N OF 26N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 89W-95W
AND FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 84W-87W AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS SW TEXAS AND EXTENDING TO NORTHERN
MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
EXTENDING TO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 25N84W TO 25N70W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER SW TEXAS TO BE ALONG THE
COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR
17N87W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 16N65W IS PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 62W-71W AFFECTING ALSO THE
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. TO THE S...THE PROXIMITY
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS
PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS S OF 11N. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING W.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SE OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES DRIFTING W. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N48W TO 25N67W AND AS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N67W TO 25N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 74W-
76W. A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N44W IS SUPPORTED AT UPPER
LEVELS BY A BROAD RIDGE AND KEEPING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC CONVECTION FREE. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 54W-61W. TO THE E...A 1001 MB
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 31N12W ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS AND NW AFRICA AS WELL AS THEIR
ADJACENT WATERS E OF 17W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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