740
AXNT20 KNHC 280610
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jun 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America and Bay of Campeche:

The interaction between a tropical wave that is described below
and abundant tropical moisture will continue to enhance heavy rain
across portions of Central America through tonight. In addition, a
broad low pressure system currently over western Campeche State in
the Yucatan Peninsula will track west-northwestward across the
Bay of Campeche this weekend, bringing heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms to the Mexico coastal area along the Bay of Campeche
Saturday through Sunday night. If this low remains over the Bay
of Campeche long enough, there is a medium chance for it to
become a tropical depression this weekend. Please refer to the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane
Center at:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&days=2 for more
information.

Regardless of development, heavy rain will increase the potential
for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly terrain.
According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest rainfall is
expected along the east coast of Belize and Guatemala, and the
Mexico States of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas. Please
refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W from just east of
the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Only
isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave due to the
proximity of Saharan dry air.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 13N southward,
and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 08N to 09N between 38W and 40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles
near 58W from 19N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 18N between
50W and 60W, including waters near Barbados.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Mauritania and Senegal, then reaches southwestward to near 07N24W.
An ITCZ continues westward from 07N24W to 08N38W, and from 08N40W
to 09N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near and
up to 160 nm north of both ITCZ segments.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms over the
Caribbean waters adjacent to Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall in Mexico, and tropical development at the Bay
of Campeche.

A surface trough near the west coast of Florida is coupling with
a broad upper-level low over southern Georgia to trigger widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the east-central
Gulf. The broad low pressure mentioned in the Special Features
section is causing widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the coast of Campeche State. A modest surface
ridge lingers across the northern Gulf, supporting gentle to
locally moderate SE to S winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the
eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh E
to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate
ENE to SE winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure should move
inland over eastern Mexico by Monday, ending the chance for
tropical development but rainy weather will continue. For the
northern Gulf, the modest ridge will remain through early next
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and Guatemala. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection in the Caribbean Sea.

A tight pressure gradient exist between a 1022 mb Bermuda high,
and lower pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula and the southwestern
Caribbean. This is sustaining strong to near-gale E trades and
seas at 9 to 11 ft at the south-central basin. Also, fresh to
strong E to ESE trades with 5 to 8 ft seas dominate the north-
central, southwestern and northwestern basin west of 83W,
including the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and seas of
2 to 4 ft in moderate NE swell are present near Costa Rica and
Panama. Moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades across most of the
central and southwestern Caribbean will persist through early
next week. Winds will pulse to near-gale force off Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to strong winds
over the Gulf of Honduras will continue through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Enhanced by a broad upper-leve low over southern Georgia,
convergent southerly winds are generating widely scattered
moderate convection off the northeastern and central Florida east
coast. Another upper-level low is causing isolated thunderstorms
from 23N to 28N between 64W and 71W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 mb Azores
High across another 1025 mb high near 28N45W to a 1022 mb Bermuda
High near 28N69W. These features are providing gentle winds with 2
to 4 ft seas in moderate easterly swell north of 25N between 35W
and the northeastern Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the
tropical Atlantic from 09N to 25N between 35W and the
Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
and seas of 5 to 8 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and
seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned subtropical
ridge will prevail across the region through the middle of next
week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will
prevail south of 25N. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse
from late afternoons into the overnights north of Hispaniola
through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$

Chan