Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 191056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 19/0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.8N 38.5W OR ABOUT 462 NM W-NW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN
AZORES MOVING E AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY AND
LIES SE OF THE CENTER FROM 34N-39N BETWEEN 33W-37W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N18W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N19W TO 9N19W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT. METEOSAT RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOW
THICK HIGH CLOUDS N-NW OF THE LOW WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED AS SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
CONVECTION IN THE S-SW WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITED DUE TO SOME
DRY AIR AND DUST INTRUSION NOTED IN THE GOES-R SEVIRI DUST
PRODUCT AND THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N46W TO 8N48W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
LOW TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE EXCEPT NW OF THE
AXIS WHERE THE GOES-R DUST PRODUCT AND THE METEOSAT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AND DUST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE AXIS AND 300 NM W OF THE AXIS S OF 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N66W TO 11N67W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. MOSTLY
MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-67W
WHERE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N19W TO 8N31W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
8N31W TO 9N45W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 9N49W TO
6N58W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ACROSS THE GULF BEING
INFLUENCED BY LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W HAS ITS BASE REACHING
THE EASTERN GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SW LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E OF 91W N OF
23N. SURFACE TROUGHINESS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF ALONG
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL FUEL
RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A PORTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES IN
THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE WESTERN BASIN GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH W OF 80W
AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 18N W OF 80W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN
64W-68W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE SE BASIN S OF 15N E OF 65W BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA ON
SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING AS DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IS ON THE REGION. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO WILL START AFFECTING THE
WEATHER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 69W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N73W TO 26N80W TO THE SE GULF.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE WHICH ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWARD SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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