Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 170002

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.


A 996 mb low is centered near 34N48W with the associated cold
front extending SW from the low to 31N50W. The low is supported
aloft by a middle to upper level trough with axis extending S to a
base near 30N. A surface trough follows the tail of the front
extending SW along 25N60W to the Windward Passage. Gale force
S-SW winds are N of 28.5N E of the trough to 46W with seas from 9
to 15 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
07N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N27W to 07N40W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from
03N-15N E of 41W.



Generally, stable conditions prevail basin-wide being supported
by dry air subsidence from aloft and broad surface high pressure
anchored over Illinois state and extending SSW across the northern
half of the Gulf. This ridge provides NE light to moderate flow E
of 90W and NE-E light to gentle flow elsewhere. In the SW basin, a
surface trough extends from 22N92W to the Bay of Campeche near
17N94W with possible isolated showers. The next cold front is
expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Saturday
night. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will follow in wake of the front
as it sweeps southeastward.


A middle level trough extends from the SW N Atlc SSW to a base
near Panama. This trough continues to support a 1007 mb low over
SW Haiti adjacent waters or to the SE of Jamaica near 17N74W. A
surface trough extends from the Windward Passage to the low to
09N80W. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are S of 19N
between 67W-82W. Isolated showers are occurring across Hispaniola
and portions of Puerto Rico, the Windward Passage and the Mona
Channel. Otherwise, moderate to occasional fresh northerly winds
are noted across the western Caribbean waters generally W of 79W
while SW flow of the same magnitude is E of the low pressure
system to 71W. Variable light to gentle winds are elsewhere. The
low is expected to remain nearly stationary S-SW of Hispaniola
through early Monday.


Scattered showers and tstms persist across the island and will
continue through the weekend as deep moisture advects NE over the
region due to a middle to upper level trough. Convection will
likely be heaviest in the afternoon and evening hours during
maximum heating. Localized flooding and life-threatening mud
slides are also possible during this time.


Aside from the special features section above highlighting the
area of low pressure and associated gale-force winds, the remnants of
a dissipating cold front are analyzed as a surface trough in the
SW N Atlc waters from 29N72W to 24N75W. The surface trough
associated with the region discussed in special features supports
scattered heavy showers and tstms N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
to 23N and isolated showers N of 23N between 50W-60W. Scattered
showers are N of 28N between 40W-50W. The frontal troughing is
expected to persist across the central Atlc through Saturday night
as ridging builds in off the SE CONUS and into the SW North Atlc.
Otherwise, surface ridging will prevail in the E Atlc.

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