Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 181734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 18/1500 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 230 nm east-
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 33.9N 71.1W,
moving north at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
977 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Convection associated with Jose is north of the discussion area.
Jose is forecast to weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone
through Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 18/1500 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located about 52 nm east of
Martinique near 14.7N 60.1W, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is from 07N-18N between 54W-64W. Hurricane
warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands. Maria is
forecast to intensify further more over the next 48 hours. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 18/1500 UTC, Tropical Depression Lee was located about 920 nm
west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 14.1N 40.6W, moving west-
northwest at 12 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is displaced east of the center
within 300 nm of 14N40W. Lee will slowly weaken during the next
24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with its axis from
19N76W to 09N76W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a region
of moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Scattered
moderate convection associated with this wave is observed between
75W-82W.

A tropical wave is moving across southern Mexico with its axis
from 22N93W to 12N94W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a
region of high moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface
trough and 700 mb trough are both evident. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the southern portion of the wave
affecting the EPAC waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
19N16W to 14N34W. No significant convection is related to this
feature at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over the basin. At upper levels, an
anticyclone is over the western Gulf near 25N95W. An upper-level
trough is over the east Gulf with axis along 80W. Strong
subsidence and minimal convection is over the region. Expect
scattered showers over the Bay of Campeche today as the tropical
waves moves through.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Maria is approaching the eastern Caribbean enhancing
convection east of 63W. Please see the section above for details.
A tropical wave is across the central Caribbean. Refer to the
section above for details. Moderate trades prevail across most of
the basin, strongest in the south-central Caribbean. Expect for the
tropical wave to continue moving west with minimal convection.
Hurricane Maria is expected to move into the northeast Caribbean
and head toward Puerto Rico during the next 48-72 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Expect for
diurnal convection to develop each afternoon over the next few
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Maria and T.D. Lee. The
remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad
surface ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA




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