Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 200000

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between high pressure in the western Atlantic and
lower pressure in northern sections of South America. This
pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the
coast of Colombia each night through the week. Wave heights
within the area of gale force winds will range between 12-16 ft.
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
08N13W southwestward to 02N18W. The ITCZ crosses the equator
near 21W and remains south of the discussion area to the coast
of South America. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N
between 11W-30W.



A surface ridge extends westward across the entire basin from
the west Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds across the whole area. Satellite imagery
shows isolated shallow convection in the SE Gulf and mostly
clear weather elsewhere. Expect increasing winds and building
seas through Wed as high pressure strengthens in the western
Atlantic. A thermal trough will develop over the western Yucatan
Peninsula each evening through mid week, drift westward across
the Bay of Campeche during overnight hours, then dissipate in
the SW Gulf by late morning.


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
a Gale Warning in effect near the coast of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the
combination of a high pressure over the Atlantic and lower
pressure over NW Colombia is producing strong east winds between
70W-80W, while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. The
high pressure will strengthen overnight into Wednesday, and
increase winds and build seas east of 80W in the Caribbean and
the Tropical N Atlantic waters through mid-week.


A broad area of high pressure centered north of 30N prevails
across the basin. A weakness in the ridge is noted as a surface
trough that extends from 31N43W to 26N50W. A cold front has
pushed southward to roughly along 29N between 50W-65W, then it
becomes stationary as it extends northwestward to coastal
Georgia at 31N80W. Scattered low clouds are observed along the
frontal boundary. The front will become stationary overnight and
dissipate early Tuesday. The existing area of high pressure will
be fortified by a stronger subtropical high through mid-week.

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