Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 192347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W CONTINUING TO 05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N37W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 09N E OF
23W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SE TO THE
CENTRAL U.S. CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF
WHERE IS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE GULF E OF 90W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE GULF W OF 90W. THE TROUGHING
ALOFT ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER THE RIDGING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE NE GULF
NEAR THE HIGH CENTER. THERMAL TROUGHING DEVELOPED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF INTO WED MORNING...AND YET AGAIN WED
EVENING INTO THU MORNING. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
FRESH OR EVEN LOCALLY STRONG NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 6 FT AS A RESULT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE NE GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS
WHICH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A
LOCALIZED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES IN THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA AND ATLC RIDGING N-
NE OF THE AREA. THIS IS SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE
NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY
WED BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE GENTLE TRADES AND 4-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL S OF 17N...WITH
GENTLE TRADES AND 2-4 FT SEAS N OF 17N. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
WITH TAIL CURRENTLY REACHING NE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISLAND
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N47W SW TO 25N54W THEN IS
DISSIPATING AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE NE COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N
WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SW PORTION OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. WEST OF
THIS BOUNDARY...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP S INTO THE AREA
EXTENDING FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 33N57W TO 30N57W SW TO
27N63W TO 30N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 51W AND 59W. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE S-SE...EVENTUALLY STALLING ALONG 25N W OF 60W BY THU. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER WEST COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE W AND DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 27N73W WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE W-NW TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH AND RIDGING WILL SHIFT TO
THE SE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE SW N ATLC MOVING OFF THE SE
GEORGIA COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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