Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 140003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 2100 UTC...EDOUARD IS CLOSE TO BECOME A HURRICANE. ITS
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 47.5W...AT ABOUT 900 NM ENE OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT
GUSTING TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 995 MB.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 28W-50W.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N28W TO A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 15N31W
TO 13N32W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD
700 MB TROUGHING N OF 07N BETWEEN 25W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N79W TO 10N79W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
IS TRAVELING THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT
THAT WILL LIKELY STRETCH AND FRACTURE THE ENERGY NORTHWARD AS
THE WAVE CONTINUES MOVING W. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ANY REMAINING ENERGY WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE 700 MB TROUGHING
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 75W-82W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 76W-83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N17W TO
14N31W TO 08N38W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N
BETWEEN 37W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N87W TO SE
TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 40 NM OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SE TEXAS. A 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED N OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N97W MOVING
NW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO AT 25N99W TO THE LOW
CENTER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. FURTHER E...A 1012 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N85W TO THE SURFACE LOW TO 23N85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS S OF 27N BETWEEN 89W TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 31N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF WITH CENTER NEAR 26N82W. THESE SYSTEMS
ARE GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SUPPORTING
CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT OVER THE NW GULF TO DIP FURTHER S WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE LOW OVER THE NW GULF
WILL MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING. CONVECTION IS
STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR THE GULF WATERS AS THE LOW OVER THE SE
CONTINUES MOVING W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTICED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE HISPANIOLA MAINLY
GENERATED BY DIURNAL HEATING. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF IS PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
W ATLANTIC NEAR 22N66W IS PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN. SOME DIFFLUENCE IS BEING GENERATED S OF HISPANIOLA BY
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRYING TO DEVELOP FROM THE LOW ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W WITH CONVECTION. THE MONSOON TROUGH
OVER PANAMA WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER HAS BEEN PREVAILING OVER THE ISLAND TODAY.
JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTICED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR
32N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 150 NM W OF THE CENTER. EXPECT THIS
LOW TO DRIFT NE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 59W-66W ENHANCED BY
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N66W. T.S. EDOUARD IS
OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


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