Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM 29N83W TO 26N88W...AND THEN CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT
FROM 26N88W TO 18.5N93W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 TO 14 FEET FROM 22N TO 27N WITHIN
120 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS ALSO ARE FORECAST IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20.5N TO THE WEST OF 95W.
ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT TO LINE FROM 30N91W TO 26N97W N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET...EXCEPT FROM 10 FEET
TO 16 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20.5N TO THE WEST OF 95W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N15W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N19W TO 8N23W
8N31W AND 6N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 19W AND 27W...FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 29W
AND 32W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 14N17W TO 12N30W 10N45W 8N52W 8N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
FROM THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. EASTWARD. THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO...AND IT ENDS UP NEAR
28N103W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N82W TO 20N97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N68W 27N74W...TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 24N90W IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGRY...KATP...
KEIR...KIPN...AND KIKT. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
REST OF THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR MARY ESTHER/VALPARAISO/DESTIN.
RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE PANAMA CITY
AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
FLORIDA...IN MARIANNA AND PERRY...AND IN BROOKSVILLE. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...IN THE TAMPA/ST.
PETERSBURG AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER FLORIDA
FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES...AND IN MARATHON KEY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 32N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 90W...INCLUDING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 15N85W IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF HAITI...TO 19N83W
TO 24N82W TO 27N81W...JUST TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOGEE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.16 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N72W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
TO 10N80W JUST OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA...BEYOND 11N86W IN
NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM COLOMBIA AT 3N TO ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA...
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
PANAMA FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W...AND IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA FROM 9N TO 10N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS
PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 28N76W TO 22N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF JAMAICA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 15N85W IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF HAITI...TO 19N83W
TO 24N82W TO 27N81W...JUST TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOGEE.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA
ROMANA AND TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS NEAR CUBA.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH A TROUGH THAT APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST...APPEARS DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA AND JAMAICA RIDGE. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 32N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 90W...
INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A CENTRAL MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N42W TO 22N46W TO 13N51W...AND 9N54W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALONG 32N33W TO 28N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
28N42W TO 26N46W AND 21N49W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120
NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N32W 31N38W 27N42W 20N48W
17N47W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N68W 27N74W...TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 24N90W IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N23W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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