Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 181741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N31W TO 12N32W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 5N-
21N E OF 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N43W TO 11N45W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE AREA S OF 17N.
THE SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 17N
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
23N80W TO 10N81W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S OF 22N. THE
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 78W-82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
15N16W TO A 1010 NM LOW AT 12N22W TO A 1010 MB LOW AT 12N28W TO
11N42W TO 8N54W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 8N54W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
7N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE 12N22W LOW FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 22W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 82W MOSTLY DUE TO A TROPICAL
WAVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 94W-99W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 22N98W
ENHANCING CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N
BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SE GULF...W CUBA...AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT THE
CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO PERSIST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
19N59W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 12N W OF 80W. DRY AIR SAL
IS ALSO SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS SHOWERS TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N67W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 31N32W TO 28N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1015 MB LOW IS FURTHER W NEAR 29N43W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 23N47W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 75W-78W. ALSO OF NOTE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 13N35W. DRY AIR SAL IS N OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES E OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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