Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 201736

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
08N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N22W to 07N40W to to the South American coast near 06N57W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N between 10W and



A cold front extends from the Florida Straits near 24N82W to
22N90W where it transitions to a stationary front to 21N93W to
18N94W. Mainly moderate NE winds are occurring over the Gulf to
the north of this front. The only exception is associated with a
line of thunderstorms over the NW Gulf that as of 1630 UTC
extended from 28.5N95.5W to 25N97W, with short duration fresh to
locally strong NW winds just west of the line, as indicated over
the past couple of hours by buoy 44020. Over the next 24 hours
the front will dissipate. A weak pressure pattern will develop
over the basin by midday Tuesday which will result in light winds.


A broad 1008 mb low is centered over the central Caribbean near
14N77W. A surface trough extends NE from the low to near 17N71W.
Scattered thunderstorms are from 16N to 18N between 66W and 75W.
Mainly moderate NE winds are occurring over the Caribbean west of
the low, except locally fresh over the Lee of Cuba. Moderate E to
SE winds are east of the low. Over the next 24 hours the low will
drift SE with convection persisting over the NE portion of the


Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the area
due to a surface trough over the Dominican Republic. These showers
and thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday. Localized
flooding is possible during this time.


As of 1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N66W
to near 25N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 28N69W to
23N73W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front N of 26N.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are NW of the front. A surface trough
extends from 24N65W to 18N70W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 150 nm of either side of the trough axis.
Farther east, a cold front enters the area of discussion near
31N31W to 25N40W to 21N51W. The combination of the front and an
upper trough to the west supports showers N of the front between
30W and 40W. Over the next 24 hours the front will weaken between
Florida and the Bahamas. The portion of the cold front east of
the Bahamas will continue to move eastward. A new area of low
pressure is expected to develop Tuesday morning along the cold
front currently over the central Atlantic.

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