Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 180529

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


A tight surface pressure gradient will develop across the SW
Caribbean waters by 18/0600 UTC generating gale force E-NE winds
along the northern Colombia coast until Saturday morning. See
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
00N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
00N23W to 02S32W to the South American coast near 05S37W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 01S-04N between 10W-20W
and from 05S-00N between 25W-32W.



A 1029 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N74W. A
surface ridge axis extends W to NE Texas. 5-20 kt E-SE surface
return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with lightest winds over
the NE Gulf and strongest winds NW of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Fair weather is over most of the Gulf. In the upper levels,
zonal flow is noted with strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours
for a 1025 mb surface high to be over the N Gulf near 28N91W.
Also expect the tail end of a cold front to over the Florida
Panhandle with showers.


A quasi-stationary front extends from Haiti near 20N72W to E
Honduras near 16N84W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. 15-25 kt NE surface winds are N of the front. 15-30 kt
tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea with near
gale winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are
over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, E
Cuba, N Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. More showers are
over W Panama, and Costa Rica. In the upper levels, an upper
level high is centered over the E Caribbean near 15N65W. Strong
subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. Expect little change
over the next 24 hours.


Scattered showers are presently over the island due to the
front. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.


A 1029 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N74W. A
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N53W to 28N57W. A
stationary front continues to Haiti near 20N72W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the cold front. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the stationary front. A 1033 mb high
is centered near the Azores at 41N28W with a surface ridge axis
extending SW to 27N50W. A 1012 mb low is centered N of the
Canary Islands near 32N14W. Of note in the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 20N between 55W-
80W supporting the surface fronts. A large upper level low is
centered over the tropical Atlantic near 18N37W. Upper level
diffluence E of the center is producing scattered showers within
600 nm E of the center. Another upper level low is centered N of
the Canary Islands near 32N15W with scattered showers mostly N
of the center. Expect over the next 24 hours for the cold front
to drift E to 31N49W with convection.

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