


Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
077 AXNT20 KNHC 272350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Jun 27 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean: The interaction between a tropical wave that is described below and abundant tropical moisture will continue to enhance heavy rain across portions of Central America into tonight. This will increase the potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly terrain. According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest rainfall is expected to be near the northeast coast of Nicaragua and in northern Honduras. Additionally, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days due to the recent formation of a broad area of low pressure that is over the Yucatan Peninsula. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is east of the Cape Verde Islands extending from 06N to 19N, and with axis near 19W, moving westward at 10 kt. Only isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave due to the proximity of Saharan dry air. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to 13N with axis near 37W, moving westward at about 10 kt. This wave is also not accompanied by significant convection. A tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles extending from 06N to 20N with axis near 56W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 16N between 49W and 59W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters into the Atlantic through the coast of Gambia near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N35W. It resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N37W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 22W and 30W. Similar convection is from 08N to 13N between 41W and 50W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering heavy showers and tstms over the offshore waters of Panama, Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The western extension of the Atlantic high pressure extends westward across the northern and central Gulf. The present gradient is allowing for generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds E of 87W, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds W of 92W. A broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, the pressure gradient between the ridge and this area of low pressure is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsuala to 24N. Seas are slight to moderate basin-wide with peak seas of 6 ft where the strongest winds are off Yucatan. For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula has the potential for some additional development over the next few days when the system moves into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. By early next week this system should move inland over Mexico, ending its chances of additional development. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the northern Gulf waters through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean and Central America. A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean due to the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is sustaining fresh to strong trades over most of the central Caribbean, except strong to near gale-force trades offshore Colombia S of 13N. Seas with these winds are in the 8 to 11 ft range. With the development of a broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula, the pressure gradient has tighten, thus resulting in the expansion of fresh to strong E to SE winds over the NW Caribbean, with the strongest winds ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas there are 7 ft. Fresh to strong winds are ongoing also in the Windward Passage with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere in the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce scattered convection along with locally heavy rainfall across the northwestern basin through Sat. The strongest convection will produce frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally higher seas. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across most of the central and SW Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to near-gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras will continue through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Azores and Bermuda Highs associated ridges covers the entire subtropical Atlantic waters. Under its influence, light to gentle variable winds are N of 23N and W of 35W. South of 23N, winds are maily moderate from the NE to E, except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong winds and seas to 6 ft are ongoing. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occuring between 35W and the coast of W Africa with the strongest winds occuring nearby the Canary Islands. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the seaboard of Florida, reaching eastward to near 78W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge will prevail across the region into the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. $$ Ramos