Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 131805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 21.7N 46.9W AT 13/1500
UTC OR ABOUT 938 NM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING
NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 39W-48W.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N27W TO 13N29W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N29W. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING N OF 07N BETWEEN 25W-36W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N76W TO 10N77W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO TRAVEL THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD 700
MB TROUGHING ALOFT THAT WILL LIKELY STRETCH AND FRACTURE ENERGY
NORTHWARD AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
ANY REMAINING ENERGY WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING
CURRENTLY OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 75W-82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N16W TO
16N24W TO 13N29W TO 7N36W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 13W-18W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N86W TO SE
LOUISIANA AT 29N90W TO THE NW GULF AT 29N94W TO THE TEXAS COAST
AT 27N97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM
OF THE FRONT. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR
23N97W MOVING NW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO AT
26N98W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS. FURTHER E... A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N85W TO THE SURFACE LOW TO 23N84W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 83W-88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF
88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE
GULF NEAR 25N83W. EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW
GULF TO DIP FURTHER S OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE FRONT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE
NW GULF TO MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE SE GULF TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 25N90W IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER BELIZE...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND
HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER THE SE GULF IS PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N66W
IS PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER PANAMA TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE ISLAND AND
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER E CUBA. HISPANIOLA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT AND AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE NOTED TO THE WEST AND THIS STABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 31N65W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. EXPECT THIS
LOW TO DRIFT NE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. T.S.
EDOUARD IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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