Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 190519
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W CONTINUING TO 07N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N37W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
FROM 02N-06N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1021
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N85W. WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE LOUISIANA WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT IS REACHING THE NE GULF MAINLY N OF 28N AND E OF
90W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W FLORIDA ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF BETWEEN 25N-27N AND E OF 82W.
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT LIGHT FOR ACROSS
THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN N OF 27N AND W OF 93W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE GULF.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT ADVECTING MOISTURE
FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS THE BASIN. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 14N
BETWEEN 71W-79W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY ALONG 20N SUPPORTS ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N75W. CURRENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDING FROM 28N77W
TO 24N77W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. TO THE E...A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM 20N67W TO 31N43W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR 48N28W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-70W WITH CONVECTION. THE
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN
WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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