Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 282326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N08W TO 01S16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S28W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07S BETWEEN
21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NE US IS PROVIDING A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW
TX NEAR 29N98W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. WINDS E OF
THE TROUGH REMAIN EASTERLY AND MODERATE WHILE TO THE W...SLIGHT
TO GENTLE NE WINDS PREVAIL. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THE TROUGH. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF AND EXTENDING E ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC. IT BEGINS AS A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT FROM 22N95W TO 24N91W...THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 24N85W TO 25N81W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W GULF WILL
PERSIST WITH CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE
WEAKENING OVER THE SE GULF. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE
E...AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS AND GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND
SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW INTO OUR AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM
31N65W TO 26N80W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE EXIT REGION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS COMBINING WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE E GULF...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT. TO THE E...A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC S OF 32N. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LATER
DISSIPATE BUT STILL ENHANCING CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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