Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 241730

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


The frontal system that is currently over the west Atlantic will
continue enhancing convection/seas through the next few days. The
pressure gradient is expected to become tighter by tomorrow
afternoon supporting gale-force northerly winds from 23N-27N
between 63W-69W. These conditions will continue through the
weekend. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
01N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 01N16W to
05S37W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm of the
ITCZ between 16W-20W and west of 30W.



A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys area near 25N81W
to New Orleans near 30N89W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are
north of the front while gentle to moderate southeast winds are
depicted by scatterometer data elsewhere. Seas are around 2 to 4
ft in the western Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. No significant
convection is noted at this time. During the next 24 hours, the
front will dissipate as the high pressure centered over the west
Atlantic spreads fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the
Gulf waters.


Dry and subsident air associated with a broad upper-level trough
is inhibiting thunderstorm activity over the west and central Caribbean
today. A surface trough extends from a weak low centered over the
Atlantic north of Hispaniola into the Mona Passage supporting
cloudiness and scattered showers north of 15N between 63W-70W.
The pressure gradient between this trough/low and the high
pressure farther north is resulting in moderate to fresh northeast
winds through the Windward Passage and northwest portion of the
basin. These winds will continue through the next 24 hours as the
high pressure builds to the north. Light to gentle trades prevail
east of 70W. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours.


A surface trough east of the island is supporting showers and a
few thunderstorms mainly over the eastern Hispaniola. A cold
front will approach through the next 24 hours. A strong high
pressure will continue building north of the area this weekend
with strong easterly winds expected over the island, and large
swell along the Atlantic coastline.


A frontal system extends across the west and central Atlantic
analyzed as a cold front from 31N52W to 24N72W, then as a
stationary front from that point to the Florida Straits near
24N80W. Surface ridging prevails in the wake of the fronts
anchored by a 1036 mb high near 37N70W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 50 nm of the front mainly north of 26N. A
weak 1016 mb surface low is centered near 21N61W with surface
trough extending from 26N53W, to the low, to the Mona Passage near
18N68W. Scattered showers are observed within 100 nm on either
side of these features. A recent scatterometer pass depicts a band
of 20-30 kt winds within 100 nm north of the cold front between
57W- 67W. This same area is going to experience gale-force winds
this weekend. Please refer to the section above for details. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 38N27W.

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