Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 241020

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.


A 1005 mb low on 24/0900 UTC is N of the Bahamas near 29N78W
moving N. In 06 hours, the pressure gradient between this low and
a high to the east will result in gale force southeast winds from
29N-31N between 72W-77W, with seas to 12 ft. Please see the
latest High Seas Forecast product under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC
and under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 for further details.


The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from
07N12W to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 03N20W to 01N30W to the South American coast near 02S44W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of the
Monsoon Trough from 02S-02N between 01W-07W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is also from 03N-06N between 10W-16W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm of the ITCZ axis.



As of 24/0900 UTC a cold front extends over the W Gulf of Mexico
from Jacksonville Florida near 30N82W to 22N90W to Vera Cruz
Mexico near 19N96W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over N
Florida, however, the remainder of the front over the Gulf is void
of precipitation. 20 kt N winds are N of the front. Broken low
clouds are also N of the front. In the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 85W. Strong
subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for the
cold front to be out of the Gulf with scattered showers in the W
Atlantic, W Cuba, and the NW Caribbean. A 1013 Mb high will be in
the central Gulf near 26N60W.


A 1008 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N73W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is S of the low from 04N-08N between
72W-78W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is along the S
coast of Hispaniola. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over E
Puerto Rico and St Croix. More scattered showers are over the
Leeward Islands, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. 20-25 kt E
wind are noted over the E Caribbean E of 74W. In the upper levels,
a broad ridge is noted with axis along 70W. Upper level moisture
is over the NE Caribbean from Hispaniola to the Leeward Islands.
Expect over the next 24 hours for additional scattered showers to
be over Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands.


Presently lightning detection shows thunderstorms along the S
coast of Hispaniola. Scattered showers are elsewhere over the
island. Expect more scattered moderate convection and scattered
showers over the island for the next 24 hours. Expect the heaviest
convection over the afternoon and evening hours, during maximum


Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the
Bahamas. A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
30N61W. The tail end of a dissipating cold front is over the
central Atlantic from 31N31W to 28N33W. Scattered showers are
within 420 nm E of the front. A 1018 mb high is centered W of the
Canary Islands near 28N20W. Of note in the upper levels, a large
upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N37W
enhancing convection mostly E of the center. Expect over the next
24 hours for the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the Bahamas to move E.

For additional information please

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