Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 222349

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A 1012 mb low is centered near 26N87W with a cold front extending
from the low to 23N94W to 19N95W. A pre-frontal trough extends
from the low to near 18N91W. Another frontal boundary extends from
the low to 31N85W. Frequent gusts to gale-force have been
occurring this morning over the northwest Gulf mainly north of the
front, while sustained gale-force winds prevail over the
southwest Gulf. The gusts over the northwest Gulf will diminish
below gale force by tonight. The winds over the southwestern
waters will weaken by Friday morning. This system is expected to
move northeast through the next 24 hours. See the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A new area of low pressure of 1010 mb has developed near 28N70W.
Gale force winds are forecast to develop this evening over the
southeast semicircle of the low. These conditions will continue
overnight diminishing by Thursday morning. See the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N14W to
07N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N20W to
07N46W. A surface trough is just west of the ITCZ from 13N47W to
09N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-13N between



A complex system is dominating the Gulf basin today. This system
is supporting gale-force winds across the western half of the
basin in 2 areas: south of 29N with frequent gusts to gale-force,
and over the Bay of Campeche with sustained gale-force winds.
Please refer to the section above for more details about these
features. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity
of the surface low, affecting the area north of 25N and east of
90W. Fresh to strong winds are noted elsewhere aside from the
gale areas. During the next 24 hours, the low will move northeast
enhancing convection/seas.


A surface trough extends along 81W over the west Caribbean with
scattered moderate convection between 75W-83W. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds are over the western Caribbean west of 78W, while
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are over the Caribbean
east of 78W. These conditions will continue through the next 24


Clear skies and relatively tranquil conditions are noted across
the island today. Scattered thunderstorms may begin to affect the
south portion of the island later today as an upper-level trough
to the west digs southeast toward the region.


A 1010 mb surface low is centered near 28N70W. This feature will
intensify supporting gale-force winds this evening. Please refer
to the section above for details. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in the vicinity of the previously mentioned low mainly
north of 24N between 62W-78W. To the east, a frontal system was
analyzed as a cold front from 31N37W to 28N53W then as a
dissipating stationary front from that point to 30N62W. No
significant convection is related to these fronts at this time. A
1012 mb surface low is centered near 20N43W, with a surface trough
extending northeast from the low to 24N29W and another one
extending southwest from the low to 17N51W. No deep convection is
noted with these features at this time. Over the next 24 hours,
the low over the western Atlantic will exit the area of discussion
with a trailing front over the west Atlantic waters. The cold
front over the central Atlantic will continue eastward.

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