Tropical Weather Discussion
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797
AXNT20 KNHC 051805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR
05N09W TO 05N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N18W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N33W TO 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02S TO 03N W OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXITED THE SE BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND A
SURFACE RIDGE HAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...BEING
ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS OVER SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN WATERS SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS E OF 91W AND E OF 94W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY
AIR BASIN-WIDE...WHICH SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE NE TO OVER VIRGINIA LATER TODAY
WHILE THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL ATLC WATERS. THIS
SCENARIO WILL REDUCE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE NW BASIN SAT MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS WITH BASE NEAR 29N
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO 22N80W SW TO 19N85W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO WESTERN HONDURAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NE
OF PUERTO RICO SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 19N65W WITH
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SW TO 15N67W. SHALLOW
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE MONA
PASSAGE AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BASIN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER
TODAY AND START TO DISSIPATE BY SAT MORNING. THE LOW NE OF
PUERTO RICO WILL DISSIPATE AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE W TO OVER HISPANIOLA SAT MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH JUST E OF PUERTO RICO IS STARTING TO MOVE
OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SW TO W
TODAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS A TROUGH SAT. THIS
COULD GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS WITH BASE NEAR 29N
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N75W SW TO NORTH-
CENTRAL CUBA AND THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 22N80W TO
19N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO WESTERN HONDURAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NE OF PUERTO RICO SUPPORTS A 1013 MB
LOW NEAR 19N65W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N65W TO
THE LOW SW TO 15N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT ARE FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. THE REMAINDER
BASIN IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE E AND STALL WHILE WEAKENING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO W
CUBA LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME REINFORCED SAT WITH
SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATE SAT. THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND SHIFT N OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUN
WHILE THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND REACHES FROM 32N72W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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