Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 142358

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic
and lower surface pressures in northern South America. This
scenario is supporting gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia through the week. The sea heights associated with these
wind conditions are forecast to range from 12 feet to 16 feet,
subsiding some later in the week. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.


The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 08N15W, 05N20W, and 02N24W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N24W, crossing the Equator along 26W, to 05S34W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Upper level SW wind flow is
to the SE of the line that passes through 28N13W 22N30W 16N50W



The western part of the stationary front, from the MIATWDAT
bulletin of 14/1205 UTC, has moved northward into parts of
Louisiana and eastern Texas as a warm front. The front is
stationary from Florida near 28N81W, to SE coastal Louisiana.
The front is warm for the western of the Louisiana coastal plains,
into the upper Texas Gulf coast, to 27N96W in the Texas coastal
waters. A surface trough continues from 27N96W, into the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico near 19N95W. Overcast low level clouds and
areas of fog/haze and possible precipitation are near and to the
north of the frontal boundary, in the waters and in the coastal
plains. rainshowers are possible, also, from 23N southward from
93W westward.

The current frontal boundary will weaken into a trough today. E
to SE winds generated by a ridge, extending from the Atlantic
Ocean into the central Gulf of Mexico, will prevail across the
basin through Saturday. A weak cold front will stall in the
northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Scattered showers are possible in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds across the entire area. Strong trade winds will
continue to the east of 80W, including in the Atlantic Ocean
passages, through Thursday morning. Winds to minimal gale-force
will persist near the coast of Colombia through Sunday night.
Winds and seas outside the central Caribbean Sea will subside
gradually from Thursday through Saturday.


A frontal boundary is along 31N/32N from 60W westward, to
a 1028 mb low pressure center that is near 31N78W. A stationary
front continues from the 1028 mb low center, to Florida near
28N81W, and then westward into the northern sections of the Gulf
of Mexico. Broken overcast low level clouds and possible
rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N43W
to 30N60W, to 28N70W, and to 25N80W.

An upper level trough extends from a 22N32W cyclonic circulation
center, to 14N56W, to 16N71W in the Caribbean Sea, and weaker from
16N71W to the coast of Nicaragua. rainshowers are possible from
20N to 24N between 28W and 34W.

An east-to-west oriented ridge that is along 29N will remain in
place through Sunday night. A stationary front in the far NW
waters will dissipate tonight. Light to gentle winds will prevail
north of 25N, with moderate to fresh winds expected south of 25N
through Sunday. A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast
on Sunday.

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