Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 251736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W TO 02S24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N23W
TO 02S45W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-02N BETWEEN 16W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER PANAMA EXTENDS N WITH
BROAD RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10
TO 15 KT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF AT THE SURFACE AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH IN
THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS JUST EAST OF THE FL KEYS
AND OVER THE FL STRAITS FROM 25N80W TO 23N82W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH HAS EXPENDED TO THE NW OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AS
OF 1500 UTC REACHES AS FAR NW AS 25N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SE FLOW AROUND W ATLC SURFACE RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA AND COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS. THE BASIN IS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW FROM
JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY... HOWEVER
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE EAST COASTS OF GA AND FL FROM A
SURFACE LOW NOW INLAND OVER GA TO 31N81W TO 27N79W TO 25N80W
...INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS TO 26N67W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 50 NM NW OF THE FRONT TO 200 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED JUST E OF THE AZORES EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLC ON FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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