Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLANTIC...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 31N76W TO 28N78W TO 25N81W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N W OF FRONT WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 8 TO 13 FT. A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 02N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 00N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 16W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF
GIVING A W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF FROM 26N96W TO 30N85W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT
WHILE A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AHEAD OF IT. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND E GULF FROM 26N86W TO 31N82W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF THIS
BOUNDARY. TO THE SW...A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE W
GULF CENTERED NEAR 22N96W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
ENHANCING CONVECTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE BASIN WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA NEAR
CAMAGUEY ALONG 21N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING
A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-75W WHERE A FRESH BREEZE
PREVAILS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY WITH THE
TRADES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO DISSIPATE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ISLAND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES IN 24 HOURS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC.
IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 22N77W TO 27N64W. AT THIS POINT IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 31N57W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE
E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N46W
TO 31N41W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC AS A 1037
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N19W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COASTS REACHING
THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC. FOR MORE DETAILS REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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