Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
AXNT20 KNHC 192354
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Fiona is centered near 18.1N 44.4W at 19/2100 UTC
or about 980 nm east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles and about
1180 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands moving west-northwest at
9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
strong convection is within a 45 nm radius of 19N44.5W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the
remainder of the area from 18N-22N between 43W-46W. Please see
the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory
under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more
Tropical wave in east Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N30W to a
1009 mb low near 10N32W moving 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb Global models
trough/low and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are within 60 nm of a
line from 15N29W to 12N35W.
Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 64W from 11N-
18N moving west-northwest 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with 700 mb Global models trough south of 16N.
Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated showers or
Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 77W/78W from
10N-20N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb Global models trough and is
embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is
noted. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 13N-
18N between 80W-84W.
The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 16N16W through the 1009 mb low to near 12N40W. The
ITCZ begins near 11N47W and continues along 10N52W to Tobago.
The monsoon trough/ITCZ is disrupted by Tropical Storm Fiona.
Clusters of isolated moderate convection are within 120 nm north
of the ITCZ between 47W-49W and 57W-60W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper ridge is anchored in the east Pacific region extending
an upper ridge axis across Mexico and east Texas to south
Georgia covering the northwest Gulf. An elongated upper trough
is centered north of the Yucatan peninsula extending an upper
trough northeast across south Florida and southwest to over
south Mexico near Veracruz. The diurnal surface trough has
developed along the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula at
19/2100 UTC generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms that will be moving into the east Bay of Campeche.
Afternoon, daytime heating, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are developing along the north Gulf coast from
Tallahassee, Florida to Matagorda Bay, Texas. A weak surface
ridge extends from the west Atlantic over central Florida to a
1016 mb high near 27N84W to east Texas. This surface ridge will
persist through the weekend. The diurnal surface trough will
form each evening over the Yucatan peninsula supporting fresh
winds along the northwest coast of the Yucatan through the
Benign upper features cover the Caribbean this evening. The
monsoon trough extends from Colombia to Costa Rica along 10N and
is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south
of 12N east of 80W to inland over Panama to Nicaragua. The
remainder of the activity in the west Caribbean is due to the
tropical wave. Please see Tropical Wave section above. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms have developed inland over Hispaniola,
Cuba, and Jamaica and could move east into the Caribbean waters
later this evening with the easterly trade winds. This is
leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with fair weather this
evening. Strong to near gale force trade winds are in the
central Caribbean north of Colombia and will gradually diminish
early next week. The west Caribbean tropical wave will move
through the west Caribbean into the weekend. The east Caribbean
tropical wave will move into the central Caribbean this weekend.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently over
the island west of 70W while clear skies remain over the east
Dominican Republic. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
will persist through Sunday night.
The primary concern for the central Atlantic this evening is
Tropical Storm Fiona moving across the central Atlantic. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details. The
upper low over the Gulf of Mexico extends a trough axis
northeast across south Florida into the west Atlantic to beyond
32N68W. An upper ridge is anchored north of the Virgin Islands
near 24N64W. At the surface, a pair of surface troughs extends
from 29N66W to 27N74W and 29N63W to 26N62W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm north of the first
trough and from 24N-27N between 55W-65W. The remainder of the
basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high
in the east Atlantic near 29N29W, with a weak 1018 mb high in
the southwest Atlantic near 23N66W, then continues across
central Florida into the north Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge
will shift south to along 26N Saturday night.
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