Tropical Weather Discussion
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313
AXNT20 KNHC 160603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front extending across northern Florida enters the Gulf
waters near 28N82W and then continues along 25N90W to the Bay of
Campeche near 18N94W. Gale-force northerly winds are occurring
mainly south of 28N and west of the front with seas ranging from
8 to 11 ft. These conditions are forecast to continue through
Saturday morning near sunrise. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

Strong high pressure centered south of the Azores extends a ridge
axis SW to the SW N Atlc resulting in a tighter pressure gradient
in the Caribbean. As a result, gale-force winds are along the
northwest portion of the Colombian coast from 11N to 13N between
74W and 77W with seas building to 13 ft. Gale winds will pulse at
night during the weekend continuing through early Monday. Sea
heights will build to 14 feet during that period. Please read the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 05N28W to 05N39W.
Scattered heavy showers and tstms are from 02N-10N between 14W-
27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches from 28N82W and then continues along 25N90W
to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Gale-force northerly winds
are occurring mainly south of 28N and west of the front with seas
ranging from 8 to 11 ft. Please refer to the Special Features
section above for details. Overcast skies are over the north-
central and NW Gulf with possible isolated showers. Deep layer dry
air supports fair weather elsewhere ahead of the front. Aside from
the gale winds mentioned above, moderate to strong northerly winds
are over the W Gulf S of 28N while light to moderate ENE winds are
ahead of the front. Looking ahead, the front is forecast to stall
early morning Saturday and then transition to a warm front during
the early afternoon hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale warning has been issued for the south-central Caribbean
being supported by strong pressure N of the area. These
conditions will continue through the weekend and into early Monday.
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details.
Otherwise, shallow moisture associated with the remnants of a pair
of troughs support isolated showers over Nicaragua, the Yucatan
peninsula and the Yucatan channel. Fair weather prevails across
the remainder of the basin being supported by a broad middle to
upper level high and very dry air aloft. Little change is
expected through the next 24-48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A broad middle to upper level high covering the Caribbean and
very dry air aloft continue to support very stable conditions
across the Island. Similar conditions are forecast for the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong surface high pressure anchored south of the Azores extends
a ridge axis into SW N Atlc waters as well as the central and
eastern Atlc. A weakness in the ridge is analyzed as a surface
trough from 27N54W SW to the Windward Passage. No convection is
associated with this boundary. A cold front is entering the NW
forecast waters this morning and is forecast to reach near 30N67W
to central Florida Saturday afternoon while it weakens. A
reinforcing cold front will follow entering the northern western
waters Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos



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