Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 211029
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N28W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEING HAMPERED BY THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF
15N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
27W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N39W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N40W AND MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 15N IS EMBEDDED IN THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N67W TO 8N69W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 66W-69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N84W TO 11N85W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N22W TO 11N36W TO 8N44W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N44W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 6N57W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N-
10N BETWEEN 11W-16W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 85W-87W. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N88W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE
ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH E OF 92W. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
OVER THE W GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER N MEXICO NEAR 29N102W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO N
FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE E
GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-
25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...AND SURROUNDING WATERS S OF 10N
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CUBA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND W HONDURAS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N72W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SW CARIBBEAN TO HAVE MORE
CONVECTION DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHOWERS AND CONVECTION HAVE NOW DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 25N79W TO CUBA AT
21N79W. A LARGE 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N57W TO 26N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N64W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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