Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 161151

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a strong high over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower
pressure over northern South America should continue to support
minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia through the
weekend. The sea heights associated in the gale region are
forecast to range from 10 to 14 feet. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 04N07W and
continues to 00N20W. Scattered moderate convection is located
within 90 n mi south and 180 n mi north of the boundaries between
15W and 22W.



A surface ridge extends across the basin supporting fair weather.
An area of patchy fog/haze is located over the northwestern Gulf
waters mainly north of 27N and west of 92W. A weak trough is
located over the Bay of Campeche, but this feature is not
producing any significant weather.

Moderate east to southeast return flow is expected across most of
the Gulf waters through the weekend. A weak cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern Gulf on Saturday, bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms with it. The front will then
retreat northwestward Sunday night and Monday. A thermal trough
is expected to develop over the Yucatan Peninsula during the
afternoon hours this weekend and drift westward across the eastern
Bay of Campeche during the evening and overnight periods.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Strong trade winds are expected across the southern Caribbean
through the weekend, with minimal gale-force conditions along the
northwestern coast of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds are forecast elsewhere, including the north central
passages. These strong conditions will spread eastward across the
eastern Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic waters by Saturday
night, and continue through early next week.


A weak frontal boundary over the central Atlantic Ocean continues
to weaken, and it is currently estimated to extend from a low
near 32N32W to 28N50W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
near this feature from 28N to 31N between 40W and 46W, but this
activity is more likely associated with an upper-level low. A
surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored
by a 1025 mb high centered near 28N68W and a 1029 mb high north
of the area near 37N40W.

Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move off the coast of the southeast
United States on Sunday, and then dissipate across the western
Atlantic through Monday night. Light to gentle winds will prevail
north of 25N, with moderate to fresh winds expected south of 25N.
Locally strong winds will develop along the northern coast of
Hispaniola and in the northern portion of the Windward Passage,
especially during the evening hours.

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