Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 151703

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1203 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle SW to the SW Gulf
of Mexico. Near gale to gale force N-NW winds are expected across
the SW Gulf of Mexico waters this afternoon and evening S of 20.5N
W of 95W. As the pressure gradient relaxes...gale force winds are
forecast to diminish by 16/0600 UTC. In addition...the cold front
is also forecast to generate near gale to gale force SW winds east
of the boundary across the SW North Atlc waters by 16/0000 UTC.
Largely remaining N of 30N...the near gale to gale force wind
field is expected to move eastward through Thursday afternoon
before diminishing. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
05N13W to 01N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 01N18W to the Equator near 21W...then resumes at the Equator
near 31W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 03N
between 22W-36W...and W of 07N between 42W-50W.


The Special Features cold front extends from the Florida panhandle
SW to the SW Gulf waters near 20N96W. A pre-frontal surface trough
is also analyzed from 26N88W to 19N94W. The front is supported
aloft by a middle to upper level trough with axis and energy noted
on water vapor imagery over the SE CONUS. Isolated showers and
tstms are occurring generally N of 27N E of the front...including
portions of the northern Florida peninsula and S of 22N W of 92W.
The remainder of the basin W of the front is under the influence
of surface ridging building in from across northern Mexico and
Texas anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 30N104W. The front
will progress E of the basin by Thursday morning as gentle to
moderate northerly winds prevail through Thursday. By Thursday
night...the ridge is expected to shift E with southerly return
flow re-establishing itself by Thursday night late into Friday

Upper level dry and stable south-southwesterly flow aloft prevails
over the Caribbean this afternoon providing for mainly tranquil
conditions at the surface. Skies remain mostly clear with only a
few isolated showers possible across the SE waters and the
adjacent coastal waters of Hispaniola and Jamaica. Otherwise...
gentle to moderate trades prevail and are expected to persist
through Friday. The tail end of a cold front is expected to
provide minimal impact to the NW Caribbean Thursday into Friday as
it continues to weaken across Cuba and remain N of the region into
Friday night.

Isolated showers are possible across the island this afternoon as
low-level moisture convergence is maximized across the region.
Otherwise...upper level dry air and stable conditions aloft
prevail and will provide an overall tranquil weather pattern
across the island the next few days.

A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
approaching from the west currently over the SE CONUS. The
troughing supports a cold front analyzed from the Florida
panhandle to the SW Gulf of Mexico waters and will move into the
SW North Atlc waters by Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A
strong wind field of strong to gale force winds is forecast E of
the front across a portion of the SW North Atlc waters through
Friday. Currently E of the boundary isolated showers and tstms are
occurring generally N of 28N W of 75W. Farther east...another cold
front associated with a broad storm force low centered across the
central North Atlc enters the discussion area near 32N42W SW to
25N58W becoming stationary to 25N65W then as a warm front to
27N74W. Isolated showers are possible within 45 nm either side of
the front. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed to the SE of
the cold front from 28N46W to 19N57W with isolated showers
occurring within 45 nm either side of the boundary.
Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the
influence of a 1020 mb high centered N of the front near 28N64W
and between the front and surface trough as a 1020 mb high
centered near 24N58W. Finally...with upper level energy moving E
of the area over NW Africa...the leftover surface low analyzed as
a 1015 mb low centered near 33N18W extends a weak cold front from
the low to 30N17W to 26N20W to 24N30W. The remainder of the
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a pair of 1022 mb highs
centered near 27N33W and 23N36W.

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