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000
AXNT20 KNHC 192355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N33W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
09N35W TO 07N35W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE NE OF THE CURRENT
SURFACE LOW WHICH MAY NECESSITATE REPOSITIONING OF THE LOW AND
THE WAVE SYSTEM AT 00 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS INDICATED FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 400 NM E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N54W TO 08N55W AND IS MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N67W TO 10N68W...MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
WEAK WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND W AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N24W TO 07N44W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N44W AND CONTINUES TO 10N54W TO 09N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG
AND UP TO 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. A
PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N22.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID-TO UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER S TEXAS
THROUGH 27N90W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND NE INTO THE SW N ATLC. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST
TO DIVE SE AND AMPLIFY BY MON TO COVER THE GULF E OF 90W. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT LOCATED THROUGH SW LOUISIANA TO 27.5N95W TO
N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING
STATIONARY. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF A
LINE FROM 28.5N83.5W TO 27N86W. HIGH CLOUDS COVERED THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 25N WITH FAIR CONDITIONS S OF 25N.
SURFACE WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE GULF AS A RESULT
OF A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF
75W IN THE PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER S TEXAS. A WEAK MID-
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BISECTED THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDED
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N72W TO THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERED THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF
68W. THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXCEPT
FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE BASIN
WITH A 1432 ASCAT PASS DEPICTING AN AREA OF 25 KT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 11.5N-14N BETWEEN THE EDGE OF
THE PASS TO 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR
OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
EXTENDING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND
TONIGHT AND SUN WITH AN INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE RIDGE AXIS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION CONTINUES
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS
NE FLORIDA. A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE OVAL SHAPED MID-TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N56W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW THROUGH 26N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW BECOMING LESS
DEFINED IN 24 HOURS OR SO. FURTHER EAST...A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER MID-TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR
28N27W. RIDGING ALOFT IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS WITH AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N42W. MODERATE
EASTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 15N TO THE EQUATOR
WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 35 KT.
AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N76W TO 25N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN
73W AND 78W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM
29N-31N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB