Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 240541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N08W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 01W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
ONLY A VERY NARROW STREAM OF MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N78W SW TO 22N89W. THIS
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N82W TO 22N90W TO
THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N95W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF
92W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS SW LOUISIANA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH S-SW
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N98W WITH PRIMARILY CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-93W.
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE
TUESDAY WITH GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMAICA...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...AND ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE AS SURFACING RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO
A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N83W. TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE
IN THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S.
COAST THAT SUPPORTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N69W W-SW TO A 1013 MB LOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N82W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERNMOST LOW TO THE FLORIDA COAST
AND THEN BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO THE WESTERNMOST LOW. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT FROM
31N67W TO 26N80W. WHILE THE COLD FRONT ITSELF EXHIBITS ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...A LARGE PORTION OF THE PREVAILING PRECIPITATION IS
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 63W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC ALONG 20N TO A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 20N83W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN AZORES NEAR 39N31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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