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000
AXNT20 KNHC 291739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 10N39W AND IS MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 38W-43W.
BANDING FEATURES SURROUND THE CENTER EXCEPT OVER THE NE
QUADRANT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N21W TO 07N22W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WHILE S OF 11N THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 06N-09N
BETWEEN 17W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED W OF THE DISTURBANCE DISCUSSED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N42W TO
09N42W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. MOST OF THE WAVE IS WITHIN THE
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
THE AXIS ALONG 95W S OF 22N AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO 13N. THE
WAVE IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. THERE IS MINIMAL CONVECTION OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ALSO OVER MEXICO WITHIN 2
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 14N17W
TO 07N26W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N39W TO 07N45W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO
09N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N30W TO 07N25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN EAST-WEST MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 29N. RESULTING LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS COVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE GULF. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY S OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOWER SE GEORGIA COAST TO JUST S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 28.5N80.5W TO
28N87.5W TO 29N94W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME STRONG...LOCATED
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 25.5N92.5W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
15N W OF 76W. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF
16N E OF 70W DUE TO A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 25N65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES
COVER THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR
25N65W...ABOUT 8 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE FAR NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF
29N W OF 75W. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED NEAR 30N50W...NEARLY STATIONARY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS
LOCATED N OF 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 38W. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 22N40W. MODERATE
EASTERLIES ALOFT ARE OVER THE TROPICS S OF 18N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING
SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 40 KT. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM
31N79W TO 28.5N80.5W. SCATTERED TSTMS...SOME STRONG...ARE
LOCATED NW OF A LINE FROM 32N70W TO 24N80W. A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED THROUGH 33N76.5W TO THE LOWER SE GEORGIA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB