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Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 092345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 14N47W TO 07N50W
AND IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ENGULF
THE NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 50W-
55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N58W TO 15N62W TO 10N64W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
MOST OF THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 06N TO 11N
BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
10N20W TO 07N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 07N28W AND CONTINUES TO 07N47W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST
NEAR 05N52W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM
07N-09N BETWEEN 20W-24W...AND FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 55W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N96W
TO 19N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 80W-82W...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF STATES FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN
83W-92W...AND PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 16N-29N BETWEEN 94W-111W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 85W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 27N100W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER MEXICO AND THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N...TO INCLUDE MEXICO
THE N GULF STATES AND FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DIURNAL MAXIMUM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...N COSTA
RICA...AND N COLOMBIA...ALL DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL
HEATING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. 20-30 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF
17N...WITH HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A FAIRLY LARGE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND SHOULD SUPPRESS
DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DIURNAL HEATING. CURRENTLY A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS IS
OVER THE ISLAND SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOST CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO OVER THE ISLAND SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N42W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS N OF 24N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N52W
AND 20N18W. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N13W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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