Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 160517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1216 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
that exists between a strong surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean and lower surface pressures in northern South America, will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia, roughly from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W, through the
weekend. The sea heights associated with the gale-force wind
conditions are forecast to range from 10 feet to 13 feet. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 06N11W and
continues to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S41W.
Scattered showers are noted within 150 nm south of the boundaries
between 15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin with fair weather. An
area of patchy for/haze has developed over the northwest Gulf
mainly north of 26N and west of 92W. A thermal trough is exiting
the Yucatan Peninsula and entering the Bay of Campeche with
isolated showers. This activity will dissipate towards the
morning hours.

Moderate east-to-southeast return flow is expected across most of
the Gulf waters through the weekend. A weak cold front is expected
to enter the northwest Gulf on Saturday with convection. The front
will then retreat northwestward on Sunday night into Monday. The
thermal trough in the western Yucatan Peninsula will continue
developing during the afternoon hours this weekend and drift
westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche overnight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Strong-to near gale-force trade winds are expected across the
southern Caribbean through the weekend, with minimal gale-force
conditions along the northwest coast of Colombia. Fresh-to-
locally strong trade winds are forecast elsewhere, including the
north central passages. These strong conditions will spread
eastward into the east Caribbean and the tropical waters on
Saturday night, and continue through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak frontal boundary continues weakening along 31N between
36W-50W with no significant convection. A surface ridge prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high
centered near 29N66W. A weak cold front will move off the
southeast United States on Sunday, and then dissipate across the
northwest waters through Monday night. Light-to-gentle winds will
prevail north of 25N, with moderate-to-fresh winds expected south
of 25N. Locally strong winds will develop along the northern
coast of Hispaniola and in the northern approach to the Windward
Passage each evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA




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