Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 310552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N39W TO 09N36W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND
COINCIDES WITH VERY SUBTLE GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB
TROUGHING BETWEEN 30W-45W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 18N73W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A 700 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE WAVE
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N19W TO 05N30W TO 04N38W TO 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
02W...FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 17W-22W...FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 26W-
25W...AND FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 43W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS NOTED OVER THE GULF ALONG 92W. WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THAT CONTINUES TO EJECT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS AREA IS OCCURRING
GENERALLY NW OF A LINE FROM 30N92W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
24N98W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
THE WESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY
DAYTIME HEATING. PREVIOUS TSTM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE MIDDLE KEYS TO THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND REGION. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH
WILL BRING THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 81W/82W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN S OF 20N E OF 84W. DEEP MOISTURE
IS ADVECTING EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W/74W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS TO A RANGE OF FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CREATES A
STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN OVER THE ISLAND IN
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 32N65W THAT SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 28N70W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N-NE FROM THE
LOW TO 31N69W AND S-SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER THE ATLC FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 56W-63W.
A PAIR OF 1031 MB HIGH CENTERS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
37N42W DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THESE FEATURES DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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