Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 050547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...The cold front is currently in the
central Atlantic through 32N39W along 25N52W to 23N63W with
southwest gale force winds north of 30N east of the front to
37W. These winds will diminish later this morning at 05/1200
UTC. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is analyzed inland over Africa. The ITCZ is
analyzed from 7N15W along 6N27W 4N37W to 2N41W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 1N-4N east of 2W
across the Prime Meridian and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between
22W-30W. Small clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are from 1N-6N between 9W-22W. Large clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-9N
between 34W-43W and from 8N-12N between 41W-47W. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are from 6N to south of the
equator between 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper ridge dominates the Gulf again tonight anchored in
the Caribbean giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A deep
layered trough over the western CONUS is digging south to over
most of Mexico further amplifying the upper ridge as it shift
eastward. A stationary front extends from a 1008 mb low near
26N95W south to the coast of Mexico near Tuxpan and northeast
from the low along 28N91W across the Mississippi Delta to inland
over the north Gulf coast near Pensacola, Florida. The front is
beginning to show signs of becoming a cold front as it shifts
eastward with scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are west of a line from Panama City, Florida along
27N90W to 25N95W then south to Tuxpan, Mexico. A shortwave upper
trough is in the southeast Gulf along 87W from the Yucatan
Channel near 22N to 25N generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm of a line from 26N89W to
over west Cuba near 22N84W. The front will move eastward through
Monday and Tuesday. A new strong cold front will move into the
northwest Gulf Wednesday night followed by gale force winds
through the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over Costa Rica/Nicaragua dominating
the Caribbean again tonight. Clusters of scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of a line
from 16N82W to over west Cuba and the Yucatan Channel near
22N84W. This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with
mostly clear skies tonight. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic
will support fresh to locally strong trade winds near the coast
of Colombia and northwest Venezuela through Thursday morning.
Similar winds are expected in the west Caribbean Monday night
through Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Afternoon/evening isolated showers and possible thunderstorms
are beginning to diminish across the island. Lingering moisture
and easterly trade winds could produce afternoon or evening
isolated showers and thunderstorms. This activity could continue
through Monday night as the central Atlantic front drapes across
the north portion of the island.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends over the west into
the central Atlantic. The surface ridge covers the west Atlantic
anchored by a 1022 mb high near 30N72W. An upper trough over the
central Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through
32N39W along 25N52W to 23N63W where it dissipates in the Bahama
Islands near 24N75W. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are within 120/150 nm east of the front east of
50W. A weak surface trough is south of the front extending from
24N52W to Puerto Rico near 18N67W. A surface ridge covers the
central and eastern Atlantic north of 15N east of 40W anchored
by a 1019 mb high near 27N25W. A surface trough is south of the
surface ridge extending from 18N45W along 14N48W to 10N48W. The
central Atlantic cold front will reach from 32N32W along 23N46W
to 21N71W by Monday night and into the east Atlantic Tuesday
night. A new cold front will move into the west Atlantic Tuesday
night reaching from Bermuda to south Florida Wednesday night.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW



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