Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 011145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01N11W TO 01S17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S27W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01S TO
01N BETWEEN 07W AND 12W AND FROM 08S TO 01N BETWEEN 21W AND 33W.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01S
TO 03N W OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS...ONE OVER THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK BAY AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND
EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT E OF 95W. OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF...A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N96W FROM
WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 24N94W TO 18N94W. A
STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N96W SW TO
THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOIST AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SW N ATLC BY SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW SUPPORT
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
26N. THE GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG
PROBABILITIES W OF 93W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W.
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTLINE VERIFY
FOG CONDITIONS N OF 25N W. THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. HOWEVER...NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO
25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING
TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT
WATERS THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS INTO
THE SW N ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N63W SW TO 28N69W TO
26N75W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITHIN 150 NM
AHEAD OF IT. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
CENTER NEAR 34N24W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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