


Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
552 AXNT20 KNHC 101006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jul 10 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed near 21W from 04N-19N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 07N-13N between the coast of Africa and 25W. A tropical wave is analyzed near 38W, from 05N-18N, moving west at around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed near 66W from 20N to northern Venezuela, moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A tropical wave is analyzed near 82W from 07-22N, and is moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the far SW Caribbean, and also from 14-17N between 80-85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then continues to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 05N53W. Other than the convection mentioned above in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is observed from 06-09N between 23-30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near 27N86W. A couple of surface troughs are analyzed over the east coast of Mexico, and over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the Bay of Campeche trough. This pattern otherwise is supporting gentle to moderate breezes across the Gulf with slight seas, with the exception of the Bay of Campeche where winds are moderate to fresh. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on convection associated with the tropical waves moving through the basin. Aside from the convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is ongoing over coastal portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, and Honduras. A strong Bermuda High and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean continue to generate a tight pressure gradient that is resulting in fresh to strong E winds in the central to SW Caribbean with rough seas. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean, while moderate or lighter winds are elsewhere with slight seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in Colombian will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh east winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered thunderstorms are active along a trough over the northern Bahamas. Elsewhere, the entire subtropical waters are under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High, which is supporting moderate to fresh E winds from 10-25N between 35-75W, except for fresh to strong E winds and rough seas north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Moderate or weaker winds prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic waters. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging will shift southward today, then begin to lift back N afterward. The related pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to strong east to southeast winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Sat and fresh winds Sun and moderate to fresh winds early next week. $$ ERA