Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 262338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THIS WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 1200 UTC ON FRIDAY AND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY
0600 UTC ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE
FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 00S35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-00N BETWEEN 36W-43W
AND FROM 02S-01N BETWEEN 22W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 994 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N69W
EXTENDS IS COLD FRONT W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF FROM 26N82W TO 22N88W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N88W
TO 18N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM S OF
THE FRONT FROM 25N AFFECTING THE WATERS S OF 25N. A GENTLE NE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A SLIGHT NW
FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS S FL AND NW CUBA BEFORE
STALLING. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A STABLE AIRMASS
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 78W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW
PREVAILS W OF 78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AND STALL OVER NW CUBA ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLAND...WITH ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS OBSERVED. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 994 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
37N69W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 31N76W TO
27N80W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N. TO THE E...A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES PREVAILS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER AND AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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