Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 280603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N28W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 10N26W AND MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST CONTINUE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N39W TO 10N37W AND MOVES W AT 20 KT. NO CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUE IN
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N60W TO 10N64W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE S OF 17N WHICH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 9N-16N EAST OF 68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N77W TO 9N81W...MOVING WEST AT 20-25 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORTS THIS WAVE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 76W-83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE S
OF 17N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N23W TO 9N33W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 19W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE BASIN. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT SUPPORT
A 1011 MB LOW BEING ANALYZED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N88W...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BEING GENERATED BY
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED ON THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE N-NW GULF SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 140 NM N-NE OF THE
LOW CENTER. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LINGER FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 85W-91W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SW TO 23N82W TO 21N84W...ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES N OF 24N AND
ON THE SE GULF WHILE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE IS
PRESENT ON THE SW BASIN. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE NW GULF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SW INTO NE MEXICO BY THU MORNING. THE TROUGH
OVER THE YUCATAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TO CENTRAL BAY
OF CAMPECHE WHERE IT DISSIPATES THU NIGHT. RAINSHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WEST-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS FROM CENTRAL-
EASTERN CUBA TO THE SW BASIN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVED ACROSS
THE EASTERN BASIN EARLIER TONIGHT. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG A REGION OF UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY WEAK RIDGE ON THE EASTERN BASIN
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-77W
AND HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT TRADES OF 20-25 KT IN THIS REGION OF
THE BASIN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS. TRADES OF 15
KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

A LOW-LEVEL DRY ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT S-SE OF THE ISLAND
ALONG WITH MODERATE MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT WATERS. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR THE ISLAND THU THROUGH FRIDAY ENHANCING
SHOWERS MAINLY IN SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COL OR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS
ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE SW N ATLC
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 70W-
74W. NEARBY TO THE SW...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS SW ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THAT REGION. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
THE TROPICAL WAVES...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N56W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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